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Can election go too well? - Printable Version

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Can election go too well? - bam - 07-22-2012

Hey Everyone...long time listener first time caller! Thanks for the info that you all provide.

Something I was thinking about today was if there is a scenario where the election can go so well that Phil and IOC reconsider the process of bringing in a major integrated partner.  It seems as though the money Shell threw at Duma was what scared Phil into coming around and actively looking for a major partner.  As the Duma threat appears to be fading away, is there a chance they make another play at the floating LNG plan? Or from this point on does IOC need to assume that until they are partnered with a heavyweight, they are continually going to be the target of bribes etc to take the asset away from them.  I actually think that trying to get it done without a major partner could create the most value long term, but the share price would certainly suffer in the near term as people seem to want some type of monetization/de-risking of the project.

Just my two cents, and somewhat related.  Seems to me the best thing is a total sale of the E/A field to super charge the seismic/exploration efforts on our remaining land. I'd like to see us be involved as little as possible in the LNG business - leave that to the big boys - and keep front running them on land to sell reserves into their infrastructure projects.  The one concern I have, and I'm not sure if anyone can help me on this, but if we sell E/A, are we basically forced to then sell Triceratops to the same buyer as they will have built all the transportation infrastructure already? Would there be a bidding process on this second field, or are you a captive seller.  Is it realistic for someone to come in and build all their own stuff if there's no capacity to rent from whoever originally buys E/A? I"m presuming the answer is that if the field is big enough, people will build the infrastructure themselves - just wondering if people have thoughts on it.

Thanks and enjoy your weekend.




RE: Can election go too well? - admin - 07-22-2012

Hello and welcome aboard bam,

As to your first issue, the process is probably too far advanced to make a U-turn, at least one without upsetting a number of parties. And that is if Duma was the deciding factor making them change track, not everybody is fully convinced about that.

On the second issue, yes, I've personally held that view for some time (that is, the 'gambit' option, sell EA and have funds enough to drill from here to eternity), but there are likely to be so many variables in the proposed deals that it's difficult to judge from the outside.

Anyway, if these are the worst problems we have, we're in a pretty good spot, I would say Smile


RE: Can election go too well? - petrengr1 - 07-22-2012

Bam/Admin- I believe the dye is cast. The sell down process will continue and will be finalized shortly. I think each major discovery will probably have a Major as a partner and will have its own infrastructure. The proposed pipeline from Elk/Antelope will not be large enough for much more than Elk/Antelope, so an additional pipeline(s) will be required. I suppose they could just expand the CSP at Elk/Antelope but as I have explained many times before I think it is important to have the CSP near the Major Field Discovery so I would expect to have another CSP at Triceratops. (And another CSP at Tuna and another CSP at Wahoo/Mako if they are discoveries) I do not believe that Phil has any intention of selling off all of Elk/Antelope (PRL 15). He made a statement at the AGM that to sell off all of the fields as they are discovered is just a way of going out of business. His plan is to sell off as much as necessary to get the fields on production and to retain as much as possible for the “long term” benefit of the Company and shareholders.




RE: Can election go too well? - admin - 07-22-2012

Yes, thanks for that, Pet. However, what Phil wants and how the situation will end up might not be the same. I think there is a reasonable prospect that there will at least be a serious attempt at taking over the company, for instance.


RE: Can election go too well? - petrengr1 - 07-22-2012

'admin' pid='7082' datel Wrote:Yes, thanks for that, Pet. However, what Phil wants and how the situation will end up might not be the same. I think there is a reasonable prospect that there will at least be a serious attempt at taking over the company, for instance.

I believe you are  right. In fact I think they may have even said as much. I think I recall a statement from somewhere that they said (and I paraphrase) if someone makes a reasonable offer for the Company it is out of our hands. In other words if it is in the best interest of the shareholders it will have to be considered and I presume a bidding contest might ensue, assuming there is more than one entity interested in owning IOC's assets.




RE: Can election go too well? - Bobby - 07-22-2012

Correct STP. In fact one comment from a member of mgmt ( second hand but from a reliable poster who also attended the AGM ) was that "he would be surprised if we made it out of this process". He meant that he absolutely expected offers , both attractive and not attractive in my opinion, for the whole enchilada. I do not think there was anything imminent but that the overall situation was certainly a cherry for a SM needing reserves and resource opportunities in the licenses. As a shareholder, I have very mixed emotions about a full takeover. We have been patient for so many years, what is another handful of years to reach maximum value?
PS adam scott just birdied #2 if anyone is watching......


RE: Can election go too well? - sageo - 07-23-2012

'Bobby' pid='7088' datel Wrote:Correct STP. In fact one comment from a member of mgmt ( second hand but from a reliable poster who also attended the AGM ) was that "he would be surprised if we made it out of this process". He meant that he absolutely expected offers , both attractive and not attractive in my opinion, for the whole enchilada. I do not think there was anything imminent but that the overall situation was certainly a cherry for a SM needing reserves and resource opportunities in the licenses. As a shareholder, I have very mixed emotions about a full takeover. We have been patient for so many years, what is another handful of years to r each maximum value? PS adam scott just birdied #2 if anyone is watching......
  Bobby-IMHO no one is going to offer what IOC is going to be worth in a few years . I hope our BOD can wait a bit longer. Patience will be rewarded. GLTA.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          




RE: Can election go too well? - Bobby - 07-23-2012

sageo
I did not mean that someone would offer more for the company later. I meant that the aggregate sum of 1) the up front sell downs, 2) our revenue from condensates, 3) our revenue from Elk/Antelope from IOC's portion that wasn't sold, 4) future sell downs from soon-to-be developed prospects, and 5) off take arrangements would be a greater number than even an attractive offer now for the whole company.

Bobby

Tiger is dead after triple bogey getting stuck in bunker. should have taken unplayable lie.


RE: Can election go too well? - admin - 07-23-2012

Yes, I also have those mixed feelings, but it seems very logical that if companies are forking billions for part of EA or PRL15, why not fork a little more for the whole company, and it can get at a level where its difficult if not impossible to refuse.

No, Tiger is hiding in some tank somewhere, maybe ours Smile


RE: Can election go too well? - Bobby - 07-23-2012

exxon island; where is janine when we need her?
boy I hope all of these mysteries are revealed at some point.

checking on dates right now for a GABP reunion tour next month. who is in?