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O'Neill Holds Sway - Tree - 07-23-2012
Far from over, it looks promising for O'Neill.
**********
The caretaker prime minister of Papua New Guinea, Peter O'Neill, is firming in the leadership as his party continues to lead in results from national elections, but he will face challenges from former political allies.
The chances of a comeback or vindictive sweep by the former Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare, whom O'Neill ousted in parliamentary manoeuvres last August, are fading, and his son and political heir apparent Arthur Somare has lost his seat.
O'Neill's People's National Congress has won eight of the 32 seats in which results have been declared, and leads the count in another 21 seats in the 111-member Parliament.
The closest contender is the Triumph Heritage Empowerment Party of long-time minister Don Polye - with three confirmed seats and the lead in 11 others - who will try to build enough support to force Mr O'Neill to play second bow in a coalition.
Sir Michael has one of three seats won by his National Alliance and may end up with about seven, probably not enough to form a coalition behind him or play the kingmaker.
The dark horse is the caretaker deputy Prime Minister, Belden Namah, who is yet to seal a win in his own seat and has only three members for his PNG Party so far.
The political big men go into huddles with their followers this weekend, O'Neill taking his party's new MPs and leading candidates to a resort at Milne Bay, and Polye took his group to a hotel at Kokopo, on East New Britain island.
By convention the governor-general invites the party with the largest number of MPs to try to form a government. The Electoral Commission is due to publish writs giving final results next Friday, and Parliament will meet in mid-August, allowing a fortnight for intense coalition building.
Port Moresby newspapers indicate Namah's party is offering large sums of money for independents and minor party members to join. The targets are said to include the Southern Highlands Governor and leader of People's United Assembly, Anderson Agiru, and Peter Ipatas, who is the Enga Governor and head of the People's Party.
O'Neill may be aided by two former prime ministers with significant blocs in the new Parliament. Sir Julius Chan is one of five members of his People's Progress Party, and Paias Wingti could be one of a three-member group.
RE: O'Neill Holds Sway - Justin94360 - 07-23-2012
This should help O'Neill as well. We just don't want Namah to be able to buy too many.
http://garamut.wordpress.com/2012/07/23/amkat-mai-does-the-png-shuffle-dumps-polye-for-namah/
In a development that has sent shock waves through Don Polye’s Triumph Heritage Empowerment Party (THE), and has again reminded both political actors and observers of the unpredictability of PNG politics, Amkat Mai has dropped a bombshell by announcing his immediate defection from THE Party to Belden Namah’s PNG Party.
Amkat Mai, a longtime lecturer at Divine Word University, was endorsed by Polye’s THE Party to stand as a candidate for the West Sepik Provincial seat.
After polling 14,000 votes, double the number of votes of his nearest rival – sitting National Alliance MP Simon Solo, and even before the completion of the primary vote count and the beginning of the elimination process – Akmat Mai announced his decision to immediately switch allegiances to the PNG Party.
In what can only be described as a slap in the face to Don Polye and his THE Party, Amkat Mai has once again highlighted the fickleness of political loyalties in PNG as a result of the nullification of the Organic Law on the Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates.
On commenting on the Mai’s defection, Dr Alphonse Gelu – the Registrar of Political Parties and Candidates, stated:
“Despite being endorsed by a party but you want to shift alliances to another, em prerogative blo individual member nau. So that’s the danger that we were saying that, that’s what will happen.
My office, we cannot do anything about this. We are powerless.
Before that Supreme Court ruling, we can impose penalties but right now, we can’t. Political candidates are not bound in any way to stick to a party.”
It’s an admission by PNG’s somewhat anorexic watchdog which has the potential to create significant challenges for political parties to hold on to key electoral winners in their push to have the numbers before the return of the writs on July 27 – in four days time.
Although the ‘PNG Shuffle’ is most certainly a worry for party leaders, I don’t think we will see that many more follow Mai’s lead, primarily because the divisions caused by PNG’s constitutional crisis will drive the formation of the new government.
Those most likely to be enticed to mutinous actions and switch captains will be first term MPs, particularly those of small to medium parties who will find themselves isolated and overwhelmed with the possibility of leading skeletal holograms, and also those fresh-faced or returning MPs aspiring to fast-track their political aspirations at the expense of loyalty.
Tavurvur @Tavurvur 22 Jul 12
Expect the Unexpected: THE Party's Akmat Mai, who looks likely to win the WSP Provincial seat, has just switched allegiances to #PNG Party!
Johnny Blades @JGBlades
@Tavurvur Namah's still got a lot of shopping to do before he becomes PM. #PNG
22 Jul 12
Akmat Mai has shown that the ‘PNG Shuffle’ is well and truly still in play and does have the potential to change the numbers game in PNG politics. Already, there are signs that a number of winning candidates from other political parties are considering their options – we can only observe.
The next few days will be a hive of activity as political parties wrestle, tempt, block and guard their numbers.
RE: O'Neill Holds Sway - Justin94360 - 07-23-2012
By the way it seems the results page is not very up to date. As I type this it says PNC party has 10 declared but over on Twitter this was the latest feed:
Tavurvur @Tavurvur
BREAKING: People's National Congress' Aide Ganasi has won South Fly Open. He's PNC's 16th win and the 58th MP to be declared #PNG #pngpol