+- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb)
+-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: InterOil Forum (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=4)
+--- Thread: What may have been.... (/showthread.php?tid=11775)
What may have been.... - bdahl385 - 02-22-2017
As i ponder my 7 year investment today into IOC's history, I have to wonder where our company (and of course stock price) would be today had Phil's vision of going it alone with EWC and their modular LNG technology to export the E/A gas. PNG opposition, shareholder skepticism, financial uncertainty all doomed this plan. I still follow EWC as a curiosity to see how they turned out. I note that their Indonesian Modular LNG facility is nearing completion and is expected to go operational in the current financial year. The Sengkang project was started well after Phil's contract with them, so all things being equal, IOC could already have been exporting E/A LNG by this time. EWC also has an import / export LNG terminal nearing completion in the Philippines with a LNG powered electrical plant nearing operation as well. This week, they took delivery of their ocean going LNG freighter, Ocean Quest.
This thread is not meant to be any kind of investment recommendation for EWC but rather to show that they did turn out to be a viable company with technology and expertise to soon be running a fully integrated operation from exploration/production of gas and oil to LNG compression, export / import, transport and electrical power generation.
How this partnership would have benefited PNG and IOC can only be speculated upon, but as i look at the Exxon buyout finalization, I have to think that to me, my IOC investment would be much improved had Phil's path for the company and dream been realized. I also think we would already have several other E/A sized discoveries from their leases "on the books" by now.
Recent EWC annual report detailing status of LNG modular plant in Indonesia:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161003/pdf/43bntl3bfw1sxq.pdf
LNG Carrier Ship owned by EWC subsidiary:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170116/pdf/43fbvtldvr8crq.pdf
RE: What may have been.... - sageo - 02-22-2017
'bdahl385' pid='79564' datel Wrote:As i ponder my 7 year investment today into IOC's history, I have to wonder where our company (and of course stock price) would be today had Phil's vision of going it alone with EWC and their modular LNG technology to export the E/A gas. PNG opposition, shareholder skepticism, financial uncertainty all doomed this plan. I still follow EWC as a curiosity to see how they turned out. I note that their Indonesian Modular LNG facility is nearing completion and is expected to go operational in the current financial year. The Sengkang project was started well after Phil's contract with them, so all things being equal, IOC could already have been exporting E/A LNG by this time. EWC also has an import / export LNG terminal nearing completion in the Philippines with a LNG powered electrical plant nearing operation as well. This week, they took delivery of their ocean going LNG freighter, Ocean Quest.
This thread is not meant to be any kind of investment recommendation for EWC but rather to show that they did turn out to be a viable company with technology and expertise to soon be running a fully integrated operation from exploration/production of gas and oil to LNG compression, export / import, transport and electrical power generation.
How this partnership would have benefited PNG and IOC can only be speculated upon, but as i look at the Exxon buyout finalization, I have to think that to me, my IOC investment would be much improved had Phil's path for the company and dream been realized. I also think we would already have several other E/A sized discoveries from their leases "on the books" by now.
Recent EWC annual report detailing status of LNG modular plant in Indonesia:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161003/pdf/43bntl3bfw1sxq.pdf
LNG Carrier Ship owned by EWC subsidiary:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170116/pdf/43fbvtldvr8crq.pdf
Bdahl - Appreciate your post .Your 7 years and my 9 years are very close.
I was out cleaning our pool this am ,and I was reminiscing over those past years and I thought about Binkbanker & many other fine members who are now gone. I believe that he and a few others really had the vision to see what 'riches' lay beneath the surface of the Eastern Basin in PNG . ( Phil too,btw) .So many who hold stock in IOC just do not (imo)understand the true magnitude & value of these riches . [ maybe they do,and they just got worn out by the greedy ceo,Exxon's lawyers and "time" ] .Again I say,"only the Shadow knows ". God bless , and may your future investments not have as many 'thorns' as IOC has had ." border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/tongue.gif" />
RE: What may have been.... - Palm - 02-22-2017
Yep, lesson learned is that Phil/IOC was never likely to get the project he dreamed of. We were told many times that this is Exxon's island but I think also OSH is the other long-time "co-owner". IOC would never be allowed to get a plant before Exxon/OSH and would never be allowed to be an Operator. EWC was Phil's stab at attempting the Operatorship.
His "Cowboy" label was well-earned. He came completely out of the blue with that announcement along with Henry. I really think that was part of their game to keep pps propped up; spring surprises and pretend they were in full control when in reality Exxon and OSH were working behind the scenes (confirmed by mgmt at one time) to thwart everything Phil attempted.
Have to give him his due credit, but he did his own bit of deceiving over the years. Hit on a great find, but did not have the capital or CEO experience to pull it off. A hard working, resourceful explorer he is, but a CEO he ain't.
RE: What may have been.... - sageo - 02-22-2017
'Palm' pid='79567' datel Wrote:Yep, lesson learned is that Phil/IOC was never likely to get the project he dreamed of. We were told many times that this is Exxon's island but I think also OSH is the other long-time "co-owner". IOC would never be allowed to get a plant before Exxon/OSH and would never be allowed to be an Operator. EWC was Phil's stab at attempting the Operatorship. His "Cowboy" label was well-earned. He came completely out of the blue with that announcement along with Henry. I really think that was part of their game to keep pps propped up; spring surprises and pretend they were in full control when in reality Exxon and OSH were working behind the scenes (confirmed by mgmt at one time) to thwart everything Phil attempted. Have to give him his due credit, but he did his own bit of deceiving over the years. Hit on a great find, but did not have the capital or CEO experience to pull it off. A hard working, resourceful explorer he is, but a CEO he ain't.
Thanks Palm = In all probability , good words of understanding a complex situation .
RE: What may have been.... - Stavros - 02-22-2017
"A CEO he ain't" - - - anyone who knows Phil will immediately tell you how totally WRONG your statement is, Palm.
RE: What may have been.... - Palm - 02-22-2017
"Totally" wrong it ain't. Not based on:
1. Comments by some who actually worked for him
2. The fact that his own hand-picked board had to fire him
3. The liklihood that had he not been fired he would have likely bankrupted IOC instead of swallowing his ego and getting a deal done that allowed IOC to do well.
4. The fact that he didn't recognize he'd likely never have the capital it took to properly develop EA on his own; instead thinking he'd get $500/share for the company someday somehow
Reminds me of someone I worked for with an ego every bit as big as Phil's.
Had a great business going and out of the blue with no experience in real estate development he breaks the news that he just negotiated to buy over 5K acres of land in S Carolina from Intl Paper. Absolutely 100% undeveloped land that IP agreed to finance for 6 months. When I asked him what he planned to do with it he had big dreams to develop it into something wonderful. Having done this before I asked him if he realized that the land cost was maybe 15% of total costs. Nope.
Are you going to bring in large partners who had done this before? Nope. Do you realize it will take you 3 years to get all approvals, zoning etc done before you turn much dirt and that's IF you can get this financed. Nope. He came very close to bankrupting the company as he put hundreds of his EEs jobs at risk.
He ended up dumping the land and shrinking the business.... after all of his top execs left the company. His friends/acquaintances still like him and think he has done some very good things; which he has. But they don't know from the inside all of the things that he did and how many times he nearly lost the company. He had no BOD or they likely would have done same thing IOC's BOD did.
RE: What may have been.... - Stavros - 02-22-2017
Not a good analogy Palm.
Phil got land in PNG that others abandoned and found a schist load of gas.
He was the first to come up with the concepts of small modular LNG plants and Floating LNG.
Both were nixed as being technically impossible.
Fast-forward to today - both concepts are fully embraced by all and being implemented worldwide.
What Phil didn't realize was that ExxonMobil decided to sabotage him.
RE: What may have been.... - Palm - 02-22-2017
It's a good enough analogy; similar instances of people biting off more than they were used to chewing.
Phil got the land after others abandoned it; others had found gas also but oil was the commodity of choice, they the bigs left in search of oil elsewhere. Phil's initial goal was oil, not gas. He hit EA at a time gas/LNG became the cleaner fuel and the bigs came back.
He was not the first with smaller modular LNG plants. He found out about it through EWC who had previously made some agreements with Kavo for a port and other development. EWC was already developing the concept and had plans for Indonesia and others. Also Chart had previously made agreements with Japan for small LNG plants. Basically the island nations needed this concept to power the different islands.
Phil was not the first with the FLNG concept. It was already in existence and being developed in places like S Korea and Scandinavia to name a couple. As Phil was deciding invest in FLNG (the company Flex LNG) PNG made an agreement with Hough/Daewoo or someone like that.
Phil tried everything he could but these ideas were grasps at keeping IOC as the majority partner/Operator ideally. But this would NEVER be allowed as the government wanted SMs and experienced Operators.
RE: What may have been.... - ioc.aussie - 02-22-2017
Those were the days my friends... those were the days. Heres a guy ( PM ) who dragged a second hand refinery half way round the world , commissioned it and gave PNG an inhouse supply of refined fuel which had been 100% imported previously. Big savings for PNG and its people. Eventually taking over all the Gas stations and supply depots in PNG and even starting to export fuel to PNG neighbours.
Heres a guy who took over Shells abandoned leases in PNG and nearly immediately found a monster load of GAS. Heres a guy that put together a unique team of well qualified professionals once the GAS was a known factor.
Heres a guy who over that same period drove the share price up from the low teens to the eighties, Always having Shareholder value as his priority.
And, heres a guy that got shafted by his own colleagues for nothing more than greed.
Phil was a Pioneer, a peoples person, and who is extremely knowledgeable of the business he is in. Some may take exception to his stubborness .... but for this business in the jungles of PNG..... give me Phil anyday. He would be utterly disappointed the way things have turned out, especially how shareholders and close colleagues have been shafted.
RE: What may have been.... - admin - 02-22-2017
'Palm' pid='79567' datel Wrote:Yep, lesson learned is that Phil/IOC was never likely to get the project he dreamed of. We were told many times that this is Exxon's island but I think also OSH is the other long-time "co-owner". IOC would never be allowed to get a plant before Exxon/OSH and would never be allowed to be an Operator. EWC was Phil's stab at attempting the Operatorship. His "Cowboy" label was well-earned. He came completely out of the blue with that announcement along with Henry. I really think that was part of their game to keep pps propped up; spring surprises and pretend they were in full control when in reality Exxon and OSH were working behind the scenes (confirmed by mgmt at one time) to thwart everything Phil attempted. Have to give him his due credit, but he did his own bit of deceiving over the years. Hit on a great find, but did not have the capital or CEO experience to pull it off. A hard working, resourceful explorer he is, but a CEO he ain't.
I have to take issue with this. There is proof in Indonesia that the modular concept works (as is FLNG). Basically it was his only realistic shot at monetizing. I don't know what he did to prepare PNG policy makers for that, and obviously whatever he did wasn't enough.
But it was his only realistic shot, I don't think anyone can blame him for taking that shot, even if the execution could have been more effective, perhaps.