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Stock valuations - admin - 05-15-2017

Overvalued? take your pick

Right now, the total market cap of the Wilshire 5000 index as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product is about 120 percent, far above the 45-year average of 75 percent. To some, this indicates that stocks are priced too richly, and hence may not be a good buy at these levels.

By this measure, stocks are massively overvalued

There is no shortage of pundits, advisers, analysts, strategists or alarmists who warn that stocks are overvalued and that a sizable setback could occur at any time. Sure, something could occur at any time, or no particular time, simply because stocks are volatile and subject to the discontinuous ebb and flow of investors’ risk appetites that can change on a dime. Nonetheless, stocks aren't badly overvalued. Rather, they seem reasonably close to fair value. As for the future, many factors may emerge that can increase or decrease the attractiveness of stocks, albeit with more potential positives than negatives. So on balance, there's reason to be cautiously positive on the equity-market outlook.

Stocks Aren't Overvalued - Bloomberg

That brings me to another major indicator of the stock market– something known as the “Buffett Valuation”. The Buffett Valuation looks at the total value of the stock market relative to the country’s GDP. Warren Buffet has called this ratio “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” Right now, for example, the total size of the US stock market according to Federal Reserve data is $22.6 trillion. Meanwhile the total size of the US economy is $18.8 trillion. This puts the Buffett valuation at around 1.2, meaning the stock market is about 20% larger than the entire US economy. Historically speaking, this is expensive. Stock markets start getting into trouble when the ratio surpasses 1.0. (The Buffett ratio was 1.11 before the 2008 crash&hellipWink

The US Stock Market Is Highly Overvalued. Here's Why... | Zero Hedge

This is the most dangerous and overvalued stock market on record — worse than 2007, worse than 2000, even worse than 1929. Or so warns Wall Street soothsayer John Hussman in his scariest jeremiad yet. “Presently, we observe the broadest market valuation extreme in history,” writes the chairman of the cautious Hussman Funds investment group, “with the steepest median valuations on record, and the most reliable capitalization-weighted measures within a few percent of their 2000 peaks.” On top of such warning signs as “extreme valuations, bullish sentiment, and consumer confidence,” he adds, “market action has deteriorated in interest-sensitive sectors... As of Friday, more than one-third of stocks are already below their 200-day moving averages.”

This is the most overvalued stock market on record — even worse than 1929 - MarketWatch

Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a 50% stock market crash. Mark Faber, Dr. Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.” Jim Rogers, who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, went apocalyptic when he said, “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.”

Are Stocks 80% Overvalued? New Evidence Shocks Wall Street - The Sovereign Investor