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A growth story, not yet an earnings story - Printable Version +- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb) +-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Pareteum (TEUM) (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=61) +--- Thread: A growth story, not yet an earnings story (/showthread.php?tid=12353) |
A growth story, not yet an earnings story - admin - 02-28-2019 While we believe that Pareteum's business model has considerable operational leverage, and stuff like adjusted EBITDA has improved a lot, this isn't yet an earnings story:
In any case, the last two quarters the company actually produced small positive earnings. It's not like they're bleeding losses.
RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - admin - 02-28-2019 From the 2017 year- end report:
That is, we're still in the land grab phase, creating connections and network effects.. RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - admin - 02-28-2019 And, as a reminder (in red): 12/20 Pareteum initiated at Northland Pareteum initiated with an Outperform at Northland. Northland analyst Michael Latimore initiated Pareteum with an Outperform rating and $7.50 price target, stating that mobile virtual network operators, or MVNOs, are increasingly looking to SaaS platforms, such as from Pareteum, to replace on-premises software. He believes 90% of the addressable market is still served by legacy on-premises software today, Latimore noted, adding that the company's "highly experienced management team" has orchestrated a material turnaround. Breaking News: TEUM latest news. - The Fly That is, it's very early days in the market still..
RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - admin - 03-04-2019 Here is something to consider, from the Q3CC:
This shows a large amount of operational leverage, although that picture is a bit blurred by the acquisitions. We won't go as far as to say that it's a matter of hooking the customers up (out of backlog) and then leaning back and collecting the rent (recurring revenues), but it's not that far off..
RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - Daxcoppinger - 04-08-2019 Hi! First of all, congratulations for your work and good results. I am new to the forum and got here researching TEUM. I have a couple of issues I'd like to share: As TEUM model is similar to a Saas model, we can apply the same principles to this company. To understand it's true value we have to model the earnings curve, since it costs a lot to add a new customer and then the payments follow through slowly, it is essential to model the economics of the unit. That is, if TEUM earns money on each deal (future cash to be received (adjusted with dollar retention rate which is positive - great) minus money necessary to hook up that customer) we can model the earnings curve. I haven't been able to find the cost of acquiring a customer (which is many times underestimated) in the 10K. Does anybody have any thoughts on this? RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - admin - 04-09-2019 Hello Dax, welcome aboard! Yea, we don't really have their customer acquisition cost but we do have the cost of their sales and marketing cost which was $3.1M a year (which is likely to increase with the inclusion of iPass). RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - Daxcoppinger - 04-09-2019 Thanks for answering, I think that is very narrow. These services normally require some adaptations to customer's needs and a first effort to integrate paretum's technology with that of their clients. I would include Product development (at least partly) $3M, most of the sales and marketing $3.16M, some of the general and administrative $17M, $7M increase. Cost of revenues are mainly recurring for the whole life of the deals. For FY2018 I'd say almost $10M of newly incurred costs to get an unidentified amount of revenue. Revenue for this calculations is difficult to measure, as new backlog is not the right figure, nor increase in realised revenue. This is because the amount is something in the middle. The real revenue increase from those costs would be the revenue acquired (not in this year, but in future years too adjusted by churn) from converting the backlog PLUS the advancement in backlog conversion (which tipically takes 90-180 days. So If the company has advanced in backlog conversion in 2018 say 60 days and there's still 50 days of work left, 2018 costs are financing revenue from 2019 onwards. Again, difficult to measure. To anyone interested I have this structure in mind: https://www.slideshare.net/DavidSkok/the-saas-business-model-and-metrics I've tried to lay out my thoughts, but it might not be clear enough, so I'll add any clarification if needed. These issues are only essential as we eventually expect this story to become an earnings story, however the foundations of that story are being set now. For great 2019 stock performance we just need impressive revenue growth, I think it can be achieved. I am long. RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - admin - 04-10-2019 Well, there are these 75 engineers from iPass, but one is inclined to think that if the iPass business is revived because they are now more stable under Pareteum, they would not be lacking in work. On the other hand, the company managed to double revenue last year and to my knowledge without adding large quantities of employees, as is witnessed in the large increase of revenue per employee through the year. RE: A growth story, not yet an earnings story - Daxcoppinger - 04-10-2019 Yes, those 75 employees were needed as per Hal's comments. That is good, the faster this company grows, the worse short term results will be. They need to spend today to get future cash flows. It appears bears are in command today... Q1 Results we'll be key to understand in what part of the slope we are. |