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The short arguments exposed - Printable Version +- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb) +-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Pareteum (TEUM) (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=61) +--- Thread: The short arguments exposed (/showthread.php?tid=12370) |
The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-20-2019 You will see people posting stuff on message boards or even the comment section of our Seeking Alpha articles, trying to scare you out of your shares. So far, we haven't seen much that should give investors things to worry about. For instance, they have argued that the auditor has, in the latest 10-K (the 2018 year-end report), expressed that the company has shortcomings in its control systems. Here is why that is less worrying than might seem at first sight:
Quote:In our opinion, the consolidated financial statements present fairly, in all material respects, the financial position of the Company as of December 31, 2018 and 2017, and the results of its operations and its cash flows for the years then ended, in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America And here is what management said about improving the control systems Quote:Remediation RE: The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-20-2019 As a side note, previous visitors using the Chrome browser might need to clear out their cache to experience the new site much better (see here how to do that). RE: The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-20-2019 Another argument that seems to inspire the critics is that the company doesn't name all their new customers when they report increased backlog and customers. Here a few pointers:
Quote:So, let's hit those first. Understand that in almost all of our agreements and contracts we have NDA, nondisclosure agreements that prohibit us from disclosing the fact that we have an agreement without prior permission. Why do we agree to that? Well really, why not. We work and supply services to our customer, and our customer should be able to disclose whatever they wish to their customers without CoreCard interference. In some cases, our customers find it advantageous to disclose fully or partially that CoreCard is their vendor. In other cases, it's a well kept secret. And in many cases our customer may say to us, do not publicly or in writing disclose that it's okay to use our name in talking to prospective customers. So, unlike some of our competitors, we don't put our press releases or announce new contracts other than where pretty much required in our filings or shareholder communications. So why is there such a discrepancy between the 36 month backlog ($800M) and the revenue (2018: $32.4M)?
But this gives great visibility! (see here). RE: The short arguments exposed - Cann - 03-20-2019 Shorts: Quote:Hal Turner did a great job making everyone believe these fake contracts are money in the bank A simple question: Where does the 101% organic revenue growth in 2018 actually come from? Simple answer: From converting backlog.. And where does the backlog come from? From these contracts.. Fake contracts, LOL! RE: The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-20-2019 Classic short tactics, once you refute one argument, they immediately come up with another. First they complain that contracts don't have names of customers announced and therefore they must be fake. This is nonsense of course (see this thread above), but anyway. Now that we have a name (Citrix, this morning) and a significant one at that they complain there are no $$ value published. See the immediate shift. They would be crazy to publish the dollar value, for competitive reasons. So this argument can be easily refused either, and they will come up with another one, just desperate that anything will stick. And once you have refuted all their arguments they simply start anew, hoping the sheer mass of nonsense will stick to the company's reputation as something controversial and frighten off a few investors who can't see through this. Don't fall for this, I've seen this film more than once. RE: The short arguments exposed - Cann - 03-20-2019 Or one can simply just ignore all the nonsense coming out of the shorts and sit back and enjoy the ride, even if at times it can be a little rocky. RE: The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-21-2019 (03-21-2019, 01:03 AM)mikekato2002 Wrote: Should get the mid march short interest updated any day now. Yes, that will be interesting to see. Very difficult to bring this down with the amount of buyers the stock has ready to pounce on weakness, and the stream of positive company news. The shares are still really quite moderately priced. Twilio has a market cap of $16B, that's 35x that of Pareteum or so. They will produce only something like 9x Pareteum's revenues this year. Basically Pareteum is selling at 4x sales, really quite moderate for a CPaaS company (communication platform as a service, if you must know..). RE: The short arguments exposed - mikeyf - 03-21-2019 I work in commercial construction/design, which is also a backlog dependent industry, and I am very comfortable investing in companies that carry backlog and use it as a metric of future revenue. The backlog number itself, and how it grows from month to month, paints a picture of how efficiently the company operates and how much demand there is for their services. As a TEUM investor, A major buy indicator I am looking for is the combination of accelerated backlog conversion with a growing backlog number. To see both accelerated conversion and increased backlog happening represents exponential growth and it puts a smile on this investor's face. When a company is running sideways, the backlog will be high/low from month to month (alternating) as existing unfulfilled contracts carry over while others clear out with the occasional contract win. When a company is doing poorly, the backlog will go down with revenue as no new contracts are awarded. It's such a simple metric to follow and understand and makes it easy to know when you should buy/hold/sell. Regarding the validity of their customers: This question was presented directly to them in a CC a few quarters back during the post conference Q&A. I am lazy so I am not going to dig it up, but the response was essentially that they work in an industry where there is potential for customer poaching so the identities are held back whenever possible. Obviously if they land a whale contract with a publicly traded company, they will disclose this as the information will have to be shared with the share holders (for example, Citrix). It really is that simple and not something to be concerned with. RE: The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-21-2019 Hi Mike, welcome aboard! And thanks for your perspective from experience in the field, the backlog gives great revenue visibility, we have a guy here who put that in a spreadsheet even. It takes a while as it can take 90-180 days to start hooking them up and then revenues are small in the first year, but then it starts to accelerate and even if not all backlog is converted (customers can go out of business, etc.) even at 80% conversion this gives us great growth for years to come. Ad to that the 214% net retention rate and existing customers tend to greatly expand on their initial contract. You make a valid point for keeping customer names private, perhaps when Pareteum's competitive position increases more customers can be made public (like today's contract with Citrix), although this depends on the customer as well. RE: The short arguments exposed - admin - 03-22-2019 You will see them using (or, more likely, referring to as they don't have to provide an actual chart) technical analysis with dire predictions that if such and such level not hold, the stock will collapse to some specified much lower level. Keep in mind:
Quote:Academics largely see technical analysis as pseudoscientific nonsense. Stock prices are random, says efficient market theorist Burton Malkiel, author of the classic A Random Walk on Wall Street. Investors who rely on technical analysis “will accomplish nothing but increasing substantially the brokerage charges they pay”, he writes. Legendary investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch agree. Buffett has said he “realised that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer”. To Lynch, charts “are great for predicting the past”.Charting the stock markets: does technical analysis work? |