With the high probability that William Duma will be in a position to torment InterOil (no surprises coming in the major ministries) IF he so choses, all current IOC holders AND company management are in for a reality check in the coming days.

The first public comments out of Duma's mouth on the Gulf LNG project are likely to strongly affect the perception of what is likely to happen going forward -- at least in the short run.

We all should sincerely hope that various comments that have emanated from InterOil management to the effect that they can work with anybody in PNG are borne out, because things could well be quite surly between a retained Duma and XOM (remember the scathing indictments of DPE and Duma), if Duma exercises new powers.

Before we hear another word about O'Neill's ability to control Duma, et al, due to his smashing election, please get realistic.  Have all these politicians REALLY changed their stripes and ceded all their "flexibility" to O'Neill's supposed "support" for the Gulf LNG project.  So far, all we've heard are words -- talk.  Let's see the deeds.  Let's see what they DO vs. what they say.

Await William Duma's first statements on the Gulf LNG project with great anticipation.

Following that, InterOil will have the "opportunity" to put forth their allegedly already chosen SM operator and SD candidates for DPE/NEC approval -- and gain gov't approval of the already announced PRE farm-out.

Smooth sailing ahead?  Wanna' bet?

Connect the dots.

VS

PS  There's going to be an initial stock market reaction to the Duma news.  It is likely to be a "buying opportunity."

PPS  What kind of "happy face" will IOC present in the upcoming 2Q CC?

'ValueSleuth' pid='7823' datel Wrote:

With the high probability that William Duma will be in a position to torment InterOil (no surprises coming in the major ministries) IF he so choses, all current IOC holders AND company management are in for a reality check in the coming days.

The first public comments out of Duma's mouth on the Gulf LNG project are likely to strongly affect the perception of what is likely to happen going forward -- at least in the short run.

We all should sincerely hope that various comments that have emanated from InterOil management to the effect that they can work with anybody in PNG are borne out, because things could well be quite surly between a retained Duma and XOM (remember the scathing indictments of DPE and Duma), if Duma exercises new powers.

Before we hear another word about O'Neill's ability to control Duma, et al, due to his smashing election, please get realistic.  Have all these politicians REALLY changed their stripes and ceded all their "flexibility" to O'Neill's supposed "support" for the Gulf LNG project.  So far, all we've heard are words -- talk.  Let's see the deeds.  Let's see what they DO vs. what they say.

Await William Duma's first statements on the Gulf LNG project with great anticipation.

Following that, InterOil will have the "opportunity" to put forth their allegedly already chosen SM operator and SD candidates for DPE/NEC approval -- and gain gov't approval of the already announced PRE farm-out.

Smooth sailing ahead?  Wanna' bet?

Connect the dots.

VS

PS  There's going to be an initial stock market reaction to the Duma news.  It is likely to be a "buying opportunity."

PPS  What kind of "happy face" will IOC present in the upcoming 2Q CC?

I see you are surprised and disappointed about Duma likely returning.

It has been obvious since Duma joined O'Neill's coallition last week that Duma would be DPE Minister if HE WANTED that job.  That eventuallity did not tank pps.   If you fear Duma, you need to fear O'Neill and all of Parliament and RC, the bigs and IOC management show no hint of that.

Last fall, Duma/O'Neill returned IOC to the 2009 PA and away from a Somare/Duma approved Gulf LNG with EWC/Flex.  Fair enough - Big bad Duma will continue to hold IOC to their contractual obligations in the 2009 PA of a bigger start-up and recognized operator.  Duma in fact, publicly stated the move to Gulf Province was approved, that isn't obstructionist talk.  O'Neill is like minded, as he should be, adhere to 2009 PA.  PNG is broke, departments will be eliminated and PNG needs as much revenue as soon as posible.  I wouldn't be surprised if Petromin sells all or most of their E/A stake to a SM just to fund their Gov't.

As always, the success of this project is up to IOC.  IOC needs to deliver a proposal compliant to 2009 PA to develop LNG facilities before next June.  It's up to IOC to do so, Duma will not obstruct a legal path to development IOC proposes.   If he obstructs a legal proposal, no doubt he will be replaced as Foreign Investors will take note and move elsewhere.

The dot's are connected and Duma's first comments will reiterate IOC's responsibility to adhere to the PA.  If some retailers  freak out and provide me a buying opp, then bless their foolish hearts.

ps.  IOC is now too far down the road committed to a large traditional LNG plant in the Gulf to return to FLEX/EWC as start-up.  You cannot commit to a conventional large plant scheme w/o SM or JKM involvement.  This is very good.  IOC maintains no re-injection of nattie in the Gulf so where will that dried gas go??

Tree, It has been obvious that since Amud joined O'Neill's coallition last week that the dynamics of the previous caretaker government has changed significantly.  Amud saw this changed and asked to join the government.  He was told what the requirements were, and that the coallition partners would decide.  This pertained to Nahma as well.  O'Neill is on record wanting the 2009 agreement kept.  IOC is on record that it is committed to the 2009 agreement.  In fact, they stated that they are prepared to bring the project to FID.  They are merely waiting for the political situation to stabilize in order that they can obtain the formal approvals.  As you say, the dots are connected and the project will soon be a reality.  Those who are connecting the old dots are out of sync and functioning in another relm.

If, as reported by jft310,  it is true that Duma is OUT, this is SPECTACULAR NEWS.  This type of announcement smacks of the way the Somare situation was handled.  Interesting.

I'll await general confirmation before commenting further on the reality check.

VS

'ValueSleuth' pid='7823' datel Wrote:

With the high probability that William Duma will be in a position to torment InterOil (no surprises coming in the major ministries) IF he so choses, all current IOC holders AND company management are in for a reality check in the coming days.

The first public comments out of Duma's mouth on the Gulf LNG project are likely to strongly affect the perception of what is likely to happen going forward -- at least in the short run.

We all should sincerely hope that various comments that have emanated from InterOil management to the effect that they can work with anybody in PNG are borne out, because things could well be quite surly between a retained Duma and XOM (remember the scathing indictments of DPE and Duma), if Duma exercises new powers.

Before we hear another word about O'Neill's ability to control Duma, et al, due to his smashing election, please get realistic.  Have all these politicians REALLY changed their stripes and ceded all their "flexibility" to O'Neill's supposed "support" for the Gulf LNG project.  So far, all we've heard are words -- talk.  Let's see the deeds.  Let's see what they DO vs. what they say.

Await William Duma's first statements on the Gulf LNG project with great anticipation.

Following that, InterOil will have the "opportunity" to put forth their allegedly already chosen SM operator and SD candidates for DPE/NEC approval -- and gain gov't approval of the already announced PRE farm-out.

Smooth sailing ahead?  Wanna' bet?

Connect the dots.

VS

PS  There's going to be an initial stock market reaction to the Duma news.  It is likely to be a "buying opportunity."

PPS  What kind of "happy face" will IOC present in the upcoming 2Q CC?

With Duma apparently back in, I reiterate this post.

What will Duma say first and what will IOC then do?

VS