All - Should have done this before I did my back of the envelope.  Here are the assumptions/results of the cash flows:

Low Case Contingent Resource - 6.5 TCF and 105 MMBL Condensate (7.1 TCF Equivalent)

'Petro2458' pid='12073' datel Wrote:

All - Should have done this before I did my back of the envelope.  Here are the assumptions/results of the cash flows:

Low Case Contingent Resource - 6.5 TCF and 105 MMBL Condensate (7.1 TCF Equivalent)

Phase 1 - 4 MTPA LNG Train

First Gas - Q4 2016

$14.35/MmBTU gas price and 95.00 BBL for Condensate

8% Loss LNG and 2.95% loss Condensate...per 9/29/2012 slide pack

Assumes 100% capital burdened by IOC and 58.6% of revenues

$5,076 Million Capital phased over 3 years from 2013 to 2016

$117.1 Million per year operating expense

Did not estimate abandonment liability

Discount Factor - 10%

Undiscounted Cumulative Cash Flow - $51.2 Billion

Net Present Value @ 10% - $9.7 Billion or 1.37/mcfe (using gross resource)

Stock price - $202 using 48 million shares outstanding

Mid Case Contingent Resource - 8.6 TCF and 129 MMBL Condensate (9.4 TCF Equivalent)

Phase 1 - 4 MTPA LNG Train;  Phase 2 - add a second 4 MTPA train after 2 years of production into Train 1

First Gas - Q4 2016 (train 1);  2019 - train 2

$14.35/MmBTU gas price and 95.00 BBL for Condensate

8% Loss LNG and 2.95% loss Condensate

Assumes 100% capital burdened by IOC and 58.6% of revenues

$5,076 Million Capital for Phase 1, +$3,828 Million Capital for Phase 2 - Total $8.9B

$155.8 Million per year operating expense

Did not estimate abandonment liability

Discount Factor - 10%

Cumulative Cash Flow - $65.6 Billion

Net Present Value @ 10% - $15.9 Billion or 1.70/mcfe (using C2 gross resource)

Stock price - $332 using 48 million shares outstanding

Applying 90% confidence to the low case - $180

and 50% confidence to mid case (incrementally) - +$65

Estimated Value of $245/share.  

Much better than I expected...I couldn't match exactly what IOC showed, but it was fairly close.  

Best,

Petro2458

Per Morgan and Ray Jay and Henry the right number may be 12.1 T's at E/A. Might call that the high estimate for your work.Or show 3 esimates.

Henry A actually has more data recently and has raised the 12.1 T's  estimate at E/A..I dare not publish his estimate . No that data is not on the IOC slides.

More on the CC I bet.

New Pet, thank you for your annalysis.  What do you figure is the valued PPs if the number is as JFT states (at least 12.1)?  JFT, if we already have gotten NEC approval last week:

1) is this a significant enough event that the company must report it

2) if there are moles (and I am certain there are) why is there not a real significant PPS and volume shift upward?

Thanks