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+--- Thread: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa (/showthread.php?tid=2396)
The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - jft310 - 12-19-2012
The estimated cost for 3.8 mtpa plant is $5 Billion. See the IOC slides.The infrastructure costs that were originally to be paid by Interoil those LNG storage tanks, pipelines etc is now in the common pool. Or if IOC owns 30% their costs are $1.5 Billion. These type projects get 70% financing or IOC needs equity of 30% of the $1.5 Billion or $450 million.
If ones uses the 9.6 T's(GLJ 2011 year end, higher in 2012) at $1 per mcf and a 30% sell down then IOC receives @$3 Billion at only $1 with a market cap of under $3 Billion today. Realistically IOC should receive $2 range per mcf. Based on the Exxon price.Thats $6 Billion.
So what to do with the extra money.?? Some to explore..Some for future LNG projects. Maybe EWC at Triceratops..?????Or expect per the IOC CC a special dividend .If short well the shorts will pay that dividend to the long shareholder.
Or when do they those shorts scramble out the door!!!!
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - johnwgrant - 12-19-2012
I want them to announce a big-time stock buyback - say 10% of the float !!!
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - tarulestheday - 12-19-2012
'johnwgrant' pid='14997' datel Wrote:I want them to announce a big-time stock buyback - say 10% of the float !!!
Amen to that. Unless the dividend is VERY LARGE, it would be more beneficial to the shareholders to start an ongoing buyback program. I have seen heavily shorted companies try to squeeze the shorts with a divi and I have never seen this be effective.
A divi+buyback announcement would be icing on the cake following a SD announcement.
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - Petro2458 - 12-19-2012
Good posts JFT. Appreciate the thoughts. I do think folks are confusing a sell down price in net present terms with something like was stated on the 10% farm out to PRE. That $2.85 is paid over time and while I haven't run any cash flows on triceratops. On a net present value basis it is much lower that $2.85/mcfg. So when trying to figure out the pps day of SD or cash payable up front...I believe it will equate to a $115-$130/share price...this still leaves the stock discounted to true NAV or what I believe to be close to $165/share for just e/a.
Time will tell ... Just my 2 cents
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - Palm - 12-19-2012
'johnwgrant' pid='14997' dateline='<a href="tel:1355878 Wrote:I want them to announce a big-time stock buyback - say 10% of the float !!!
if anything they've talked about a stock split. I would guess they'd do that and a dividend before they buy back stock.
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - jft310 - 12-19-2012
Palm-The float is an issue that requires IOC in triple digits for a stock split Petro- Bright man you B..The PRE price needs further discounting and the real value is close to $2 today despending on discount rate used.
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - Palm - 12-19-2012
Triple digits will not be a problem with the right sell down me thinks
RE: The LNG plant 3.8 mtpa - efi426hemi - 12-19-2012
Thanx JFT, some great posts today.