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Motley Fool's comment.... - johnwgrant - 01-25-2013

Why InterOil's Shares Jumped

By

"Now what: This is another good step forward for the company, and investors are obviously happy with the news today. The company is going through a partnering process and plans to sell down its interest in both the Elk and Antelope fields in the near future. Until that is done, I would be a little leery of jumping into this stock, especially considering the very volatile movements we've seen in the past year. "

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Hmmm...   so, if I understand Travis correctly, an investor should wait until everything is signed, sealed, and delivered.   Then buy in (at $100+ per share).    That sound like a great investing technique.  NOT !!!




RE: Motley Fool's comment.... - TxPm - 01-25-2013

Apparently Travis has never heard the saying "Buy the Rumor Sell the news"

RE: Motley Fool's comment.... - will2bgreat - 01-25-2013

'johnwgrant' pid='16564' datel Wrote:

Why InterOil's Shares Jumped

By

"Now what: This is another good step forward for the company, and investors are obviously happy with the news today. The company is going through a partnering process and plans to sell down its interest in both the Elk and Antelope fields in the near future. Until that is done, I would be a little leery of jumping into this stock, especially considering the very volatile movements we've seen in the past year. "

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Hmmm...   so, if I understand Travis correctly, an investor should wait until everything is signed, sealed, and delivered.   Then buy in (at $100+ per share).    That sound like a great investing technique.  NOT !!!

John, I respectively disagree.

For the investor that does not want/like risk, an investment in IOC post signing is still a good investment post signing and here is why:

  • While IOC is going to pop with the announcement of a deal, I don't know if it is going to pop the amount that we hope.  There are way too many shorts here and these guys are not simply going to watch their short position in IOC tank.  I suspect that is when things will really get nasty.  This is going to be article after article about all of the non-binding statements in the agreement, articles questioning the value of the agreement, the timing of the project etc.
  • The shorts have shown that they really control the price of this stock and until I see otherwise, I still believe they do.
  • Even after the deal is signed, IOC has lots of prospects/gas to find.  Give Phil money from the sell down, and sit back and watch Phil (and Dave) do what they do best, drill and discover more gas and maybe some oil.  That is why I get frustrated with the delays, I just want a good deal with some money to continue IOC's development, not a perfect deal.
  • I really believe IOC will become a $500 to $1000/share stock in the next 10 years.

But that is me, a simple engineer who is only concerned with the resource and not all of the other BS.  Give any company IOC's resource/prospects and they will figure out how to monetize and grow this company.

Good luck longs.



RE: Motley Fool's comment.... - ArtM72 - 01-26-2013

Will -

I purposefully ignore anything and everything written on Motley Fool due to complete absence of any QC on that site. I do appreciate your comments though, only wishing to add that any deal announcement will come with a price move well over $70. Given the resource and infrastructure in place today, there is very little potential for downside risk between now and Feb 28th. The upside risk is that the announced deal might come with one or more buyout offers. In that event I suspect the shorts would be powerless to contain the stock pricing.

Ignoring the potential for buyout is why I think Travis is just another Fool, not considering that potential in his recommendation. As to the $500 to $1,000 potential I also think it is there, perhaps even more if IOC is in time able to grow their downstream capability in LNG as they have successfully done with their refinery. As an engineer you have to agree that cutting apart a refinery up in Alaska and profitably welding it back together in the tropics is no mean task that Phil et al accomplished.