Lets use what we know to be true

Exxon- they need more NG and have already built In a pipeline T

Shell- they have returned to PNG with a deal with Petromin

Chevron- Polye days they are coming back. Where?

Total - they have acquired an interest in the leases that surround IOC- Why???

Thats 4 Four Super Majors that have some type bid in with IOC logic tells us, beyond logic we have reports that verify the logic . To be determined still who might win. Exxon looks good

'tarulestheday' pid='16639' datel Wrote:This week from someone who is extremely well connected and heavily invested: "It will be a miracle if XOM is not deeply involved in this project." "Total has bid more than once with alternate scenarios." "Shell could still go hostile at any time." I also heard CVX is out of the running now. Use or flush...

Those 4 names have been consistently popping up.  Add JKM and an NOC, likely PTEP and that's the 6 often referred to.  Fresh confirmation from couple directions that PNG will take only the 22.5% at this time, no cash to exercise any of 27.5% option.

So in 2001 Shell attempted a hostile bid for Barrett, a private company with 2.1 tcf in reserves for anout 2 billion dolllars. Williams came in as a white knight and bought Barrett for 2.45 billion. A year earlier the tried to buy Woodside in Australia by hostile bid, also not succesful.

Obviously times are different now with the Asian LNG demand....So what would Shell bid. Shell is notoriously cheap when it comes to buyouts and takeovers as per their history.  I do not think that will change now. Some people have argued that they learned their lesson. Shell may spur a bidding war but I would doubt that Shell will be the winner of anything with IOC.

I do not see IOC as an independent company for much longer. Willl it be 6 weeks or 3 years.  Who knows but I agree that XOM or Shell buyout make  a lot of sense as they can likely pay more then the others. XOM is a no brainer as it is cheapest for them to buy IOC as they can divert the gas to their existing infrastructure. Shell already has deep contacts with PNG, but no real projects. That derisks the project for them somewhat over a TOT or CVX.

The question is what and how would these other SM respond to all this and when. What is IOC worth to the likes of XOM or TOT or CVX??? Has Shell learned their lesson. They need aquisitions, but will they pony up???

Just some ruminations in my mind. FWIW

'jft310' pid='16652' datel Wrote:With a Super Major chosen by IOC no as in zero 27.5% taken for Domestic use. Is what I hear . I bet what Taru says above is a good solid update of the four majors. Exxon can bid more than anyone else because they have so much invested in infrastructure already.And Exxon can get conditioned NG in 24 months ish, quicker than anyone else. They are the no brainer but will they win?? Pull up the OSH chart and see what happened when Exxon partnered with OSH and they announced a deal!!!!Kinda blows away any 100% increase in stock price. Thats way low based on OSH and Exxon partnering!!

The process:

IOC --><--IBs-->Bidders' Negotiating Teams-->Bidders' Approval Committees-->Bidder's BoD's say yay or nay-->Bid to IB-->Presented to IOC Bod 1st week March

All Bidders will have had adequate time by the 28th.  XOM's initial PNG LNG sale price was $2.20/M and legend has it that has always been Phil's price.