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  The Current Set-Up

  
  

  doublebagger448by doublebagger448.Feb 5, 2013 9:14 PM.Permalink

  InterOil recently announced that final bids are due on February 28th for the partial sell-down of Elk/Antelope. If this was a normal situation, you would expect the stock price to gradually move up towards the expected bid value (well over $100/share) minus a risk discount. Instead, the short interest has climbed to an all-time high (11.4M shares) and the stock has drift sideways to slightly down. Why is this? As the shorts repeatedly point out, the CEO Phil Mulacek has made numerous statements in the past regarding a pending sell-down and those dates came and went. As a result, Mulacek has lost all credibility with Wall Street and the shorts are counting on Phil to screw-up yet again. Curiously, this is the short thesis of 3 well-respected hedge funds I spoke with over the past 2 weeks.
  
  It is always dangerous to say ‘This time is different’, but the facts support this conclusion. On July 2, 2012 InterOil announced that Gaylen Byker assumed the role of Chairman of the Board. Potential bidders wanted assurances that the bidding process would be run professionally and that the goal posts would not move (yet again). Word is that several bidders expressed specific concerns regarding Mulacek and his questionable credibility. InterOil desired to demonstrate its commitment to a professional process and was not going to let anyone (Mulacek) subvert the process. The Company responded by marginalizing Mulacek’s power on the Board. From some reason, the shorts fail to embrace the significance of this.
  
  Formal bidding instructions were sent out to all potential bidders with a firm deadline for bids; February 28, 2013. Formal bidding instructions and a firm bid deadline have never happened in the past. I guess the shorts do not care about that fact. The Board of InterOil is extremely committed to the completion of the competitive bidding process for Elk/Antelope. They feel that all parties (InterOil and the potential bidders) have sufficient information on the E/A reservoir to make informed decisions.
  
  It is curious that the shorts are no longer barking about the quality of the E/A reservoir. Several reservoir engineers (GK, GLJ, KR) have estimated E/A to have 6-9+ Tcfe. The logs were all done by Schlumberger. The bidders all acknowledge the high quality of the resource. A3’s results only confirmed this.
  
  So….where does that leave us? The shorts are betting on another delay given IOC’s colored history. Smart bet or #$%$ bet?? Hmmmm. Well, there was never a formal bid process with a firm bid deadline, managed by world-class investment banks, and committed to by a Board not headed by Mulacek before. Further, the Board is under immense pressure from IOC's largest holders to get a deal done.
  
  Lastly, there are at least 3 super majors, 1 national oil company (Chinese??), and JKM involved in the process. InterOil’s Board is partial to selecting a super major, unless the JKM bid is substantially superior. It will be hard to argue that a partner like Shell, Exxon or Total does not erase the lingering credibility overhang.
  
  I expect we will see IOC drift up towards $75-$85 heading into the bidding results. The Board is scheduled to meet on March 4th. I expect we will hear an update from IOC shortly after (within a few days) of the Board meeting. Any deal that values the resource over $1/mcf and includes at least $200M cash should be adequate to shatter the short argument and propel IOC to well over $125/share. Good luck to all and I hope that the shorts get what they richly deserve.

It's simple. You either trust the resource will crush naysayers or you trust that 'Wall Street' has no faith in Phil to close a deal. Me, I trust the known Wall Street Giants that own us and not straw men.

edit:

Simple solution - buy IOC and no sensitive SM will have to deal with Phil.

I think doublebagger is spot on. It's basically what I think as well, although I haven't spoken to any short hedgefund. It's a lack of buyers at present that keeps the price back, almost all buyers want to see "proof of concept" first before buying. The few buyers there are can be countered by the increased short count.

I'm very happy he talked to those funds though, although I was pretty sure there are no 'as of yet unknown' short 'arguments,' it's always nice to have that confirmed. The only wild card in the deck is PNG politics, but I think enough has improved there to see us through.

If they deliver, this is going to be a nice rally, and I don't see much reason why they will not deliver this time. Any half decent deal destroys the risk and the downside from here, and if things can't go down, you'll know where they'll go.. Too bad doublebagger isn't with us though..