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+--- Thread: Eureka! Moment (/showthread.php?tid=2761)
Eureka! Moment - ltinvest - 02-09-2013
While many of you may have realized this long before I have, last night I had a real Eureka! moment. Through conversations the last few days with those knowledgeable and/or invested in IOC, I heard consistent facts across the different conversations and a continued confidence about the upcoming sell down. Of course, all these investors are long and thus believe in the IOC value. The short argument of past IOC delays and management overpromises will once again equal future results has been a hard argument to combat. I, and many others, feel "this time is different" but if you arent involved directly in these discussions, how do you prove "this time is different" and therefore negate the one last remaining short thesis?
Thats where my Eureka! moment came. I could have titled this "the silence is deafening." Clearly the one thing that is different is the silence from the PNG govt. And that folks is the canary in the coal mine. Rewind a year ago. Had Interoil issued such a press releaase annoucing the dealine for final and binding bids, Duma, et al would have likely spoken publicly and said "not so fast my friend!" Not to mention the leak from the DPE that would have given the shorts a 24 to 48 hour head start. But that hasnt happened this time around and, in my opinion, is precisely why 'this time IS different."
It tells me the PNG Govt:
1. Is aware of and has approved all the bidders still involved in the sell down process.
2. The bidders will satisfy the terms and conditions of the project agreement
3. Has a sense of urgency and wants to see this process finalized so work on the Gulf LNG can proceed.
Lets hope the silence is not only deadly (to the shorts) but its golden too!
RE: Eureka! Moment - Petrovale - 02-09-2013
I like canaries in the coal mine.
Others often choke in silence.
Thanks for posting.
RE: Eureka! Moment - Palm - 02-09-2013
You got it ltinvest; that is one of the huge differences this time around; gov't cooperation. But also IOC is working through proper channels this time around, and profusely thanking Mr Duma and the government for their help and ccoperation. That's how deals get done.
RE: Eureka! Moment - efi426hemi - 02-09-2013
Nice post LT,
I think one of the other differences this time is that IOC issued a public PR stating that final bids are given by Feb 28th. They have never done this before. Also, they are acutely aware that they have blown the timing credibility with shareholders. So if you know that your shareholders don't trust your statements regarding timing and then you issue a HARD deadline, it doesn't take a genius to know the backlash will be HUGE if you miss that deadline. Yet they issued that PR anyways.
I may be reading in between the lines incorrectly, but this says to me that they are going to make it happen. Should be an interesting year end CC.
RE: Eureka! Moment - sageo - 02-09-2013
'efi426hemi' pid='17207' datel Wrote:Hemi-- Thanks for your post.I realize that we now have a "Hard deadline", and for that I am grateful. On the other hand I don't understand delays on the following: when I spoke to Wayne in early Jan.,he said that they expected to move rig#2 and spud Elk3 by the end of Jan. Yes, I know they are deep into finalizing things right now ,( but as my grandkids like to say to me) how about "multi-tasking"? Can't we finalize,spud,dst and then move a rig all at the same time?Different personnel all working together or am I asking to much of our highly qualified people? H&H back to you !Nice post LT,
I think one of the other differences this time is that IOC issued a public PR stating that final bids are given by Feb 28th. They have never done this before. Also, they are acutely aware that they have blown the timing credibility with shareholders. So if you know that your shareholders don't trust your statements regarding timing and then you issue a HARD deadline, it doesn't take a genius to know the backlash will be HUGE if you miss that deadline. Yet they issued that PR anyways.
I may be reading in between the lines incorrectly, but this says to me that they are going to make it happen. Should be an interesting year end CC.
H&H,Hemi
RE: Eureka! Moment - jft310 - 02-09-2013
We have no information of what type tests the bidders are asking of IOC at A-3.One can assume their have been requests for the bidders engineers to do some work.Or are we just waiting on the results of the core samples before we move the rig. What if they need more samples from A-3???It certainly will not effect the bid date deadlines but we do have several more weeks for the gathering of information. We do know IOC has a bid they are willing to accept or they would not have set the firm dates they did.
RE: Eureka! Moment - GraniteGrab - 02-11-2013
I am a new long, began building a position in early 2012...sold out got back in etc...I really dont have the history of the delays but i am very optimistic. So is everyone basically thinking end of march with some kind of news>?
RE: Eureka! Moment - admin - 02-11-2013
Welcome aboard Granite. Yes, there are reasons to be optimistic and I expect some news before the end of March, I would be surprised if there had to be weeks of deliberations as I think most of the bids properties should be known by now, even if we can't exclude last minute surprises.
RE: Eureka! Moment - sageo - 02-12-2013
LT- At the end of your post of the 9th,you commented that you hoped the silence was golden. Right now it seems to be"deafening" ! Oh well, I guess I will have to answer my own question about our mgmt's ability to "multi-task" when I replied to Hemi's post.....they can't . New "old saying"......patience requires even MORE patience .