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+--- Thread: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List (/showthread.php?tid=2778)
RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - ltinvest - 02-13-2013
Pavel has added Interoil as his current favorite pick....replacing Exxon.
He writes:
"in the near future, Interoil is likely to make perhaps the most impactful announcement in its company history - the long awaited liquified natural gas (LNG) partner selection and resource sell down. Final bids are due from all prospective partners by February 28th with the board meeting therafter to select the "winner." Final cabinet approval for the LNG project came last November, and management has said that bids have been received from at least four interested parties: two major oil companies, a national oil company, and an Asian utility. While we cannot predict the announcement timetable with precision - for example, the board's decision making does not have to be instantaneous - it seems apparent that Interoil feels confident enough to self-impose a deadline. With the stock currently pricing in only $0.60/Mcf of gas resource -vs. the regional industry average of around $1.20/Mcf for analgous transactions ove the past five years - we think the validation provided by the partnership announcement should meaningfully reset valuation. "
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - Palm - 02-13-2013
Nice find. Thanks Lt!!
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - jft310 - 02-13-2013
Most important is what estimate of IOC's assets they RJ use. The new and higher end of 2012 GLJ report is not published yet. The 60 cent number is way conservative because its so low in assumed assets. Over the last year we add T-2 and A-3 results. Last year the GLJ report came out mid February. Could WA announce the next GLJ number today at IPAA????Or will they publish later those results???
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - jft310 - 02-13-2013
More RJ perspective info.
His $1.20 is for shitty Coal Seam Bed fields where you need thousands of wells and pipelines that stretch to the moon.
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - ArtM72 - 02-14-2013
Thanks jft, that is a point no one should overlook. I'm a little disappointed Pavel did not consider that in his "analgous" figure. I doubt also there are many such comparable resources with camps and roads and wharfs in place (not to mention the steel pipe which my understanding was bought two years ago and presumably is in stockpile somewhere).
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - jft310 - 02-14-2013
Art-IOC never bought the pipes.
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - ArtM72 - 02-14-2013
'jft310' pid='17359' datel Wrote:Art-IOC never bought the pipes.
Oh well, I'll just have to be satisfied with the route engineering then. Pipes probably would've been too small anyway with that spur shown on today's graphic coming over from 3tops:-)
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - davidhmtk - 02-14-2013
'jft310' pid='17314' datel Wrote:Most important is what estimate of IOC's assets they RJ use. The new and higher end of 2012 GLJ report is not published yet. The 60 cent number is way conservative because its so low in assumed assets. Over the last year we add T-2 and A-3 results. Last year the GLJ report came out mid February. Could WA announce the next GLJ number today at IPAA????Or will they publish later those results???WA said this am that this year's GLJ report will be released end of Feb, beginning of March.
RE: RJ places IOC on Analyst Current Favorite List - Tusker - 02-14-2013
'jft310' pid='17359' datel Wrote:Art-IOC never bought the pipes.
Yes, the design, the implementation, the construction, the logistics, the " lay down" area... social mapping, local owners and national and local regional political work.
Above ground facts!