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Why I own Interoil - Printable Version +- ShareholdersUnite Forums (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb) +-- Forum: Companies (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: InterOil Forum (http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/forumdisplay.php?fid=4) +--- Thread: Why I own Interoil (/showthread.php?tid=3360) |
Why I own Interoil - ltinvest - 04-15-2013 It's the resource. I own Interoil because I think there is great value in owning a piece of 10 Trillion cf of gas and liquids in the Elk/Antelope resource. I own Interoil because I believe they ultimately will discover well beyond what they have at E/A in Triceratops, PPL 236 and additional prospects. Longer term, I believe 20 Trillion cf is almost certain and 30 Trillion is possible. I believe the resource is extremely well postioned in both geography and in time. Meaning the AsiaPacific region and the price and demand that exists in the region currently and out into the future. I believe the resource will be monetized by Interoil or by another company. In either scenario, I believe the resource will be monetized at a value higher or significantly higher then how it is priced today. KISS. If somone can show me why these basic tenants are not correct, I'm all ears. However, after 5+ years of owning IOC, my confidence and conviction has only increased due to the facts. I have great admiration and respect for Phil and the Interoil management team for having the vision, intelligence, skill sets and tenacity to create and build a 3.5 billion company in PNG. Quite remarkable. Do I think there have been missteps and mistakes by Phil and management over the last few years? Yes. Would I like them to learn from those mistakes and avoid making them again? Yes. Do I think any CEO or management team under the same type of scrutiny we see here at Interoil could be easily criticized? Yes! And I say this as somone who started a company and had to evelove it from start-up to maturity. Are there always growing pains and mistakes? Yes. Learn and move forward. ltinvest stand for long term invest. But I'm as eager as anyone to see Interoil execute and finalize the sell down process. It will reset the value of the company at a higher base. It will derisk the company substantially and remove much of discount that currently exists. It will create the timeline to first cash flows from CSP and LNG. And I'm especially excited about funding a more agressive drilling program to get after all these prospects. I'm perplexed by those whom criticize Interoil for saying too much and now criticize them for saying too little. See above paragraph. That's a result of the learning curve. I don't know if it's Shell, Exxon, JKM, Total, PTT, or all of the above. I'm on the record as saying JKM. But recent due diligence meant I was not that surprised when Friday's article came out. The same due diligence makes me believe we are closer than not to annoucing the sell down.
Feel free to agree or disagree. Just don't call me names
RE: Why I own Interoil - will2bgreat - 04-15-2013
'ltinvest' pid='20729' datel Wrote: Itinvest, I absolutely agree and wrote a response to AG stating such. All of the other short arguments are what I call static; conflict of interest, there is still 10Ts of NG in the ground. Will not get a partner; there is still 10Ts of NG in the ground. Etc. The bottom line is eventually this gas will be monetized, it is now just a question of timing. And since it is just a question of timing, when, not if, and since I don't trade options, a little longer of a wait is fine with me. Good luck longs.
RE: Why I own Interoil - kommonsents - 04-15-2013 I, too, am invested in IOC for the resources for the past 3 or so years and agree with most of Ltinvest's post. However, I am not clear on what rights IOC actually has in the resources now and as of June when the 2009 PA apparently expires. Can someone knowledgeable about this issue please explain it for me? RE: Why I own Interoil - ArtM72 - 04-15-2013 I am not knowledgeable about the June deadline. I only have the opinion that PNG is always free to do anything they want to as a sovereign. However there are risks to certain actions that amount to confiscation of IOC's assets that few would think PNG would be willing to take. The risk of chilling all international investment of course is one. Interoil locking the doors on all of its gas stations and refinery might be another. It is hard to imagine anything good coming to the country from such a decision. It is not hard to imagine on the other hand such a decision could initiate a series of events that could bring down the entire government and loss of PNG's independence. I personally have faith that if nothing else, the goodwill IOC has generated in PNG for well over a decade, the friends they have made, the amount of money invested and put at risk, and the difficult political and institutional environment in which they have had to move forward towards FID are all issues that each by themselves would give more than enough reason to grant any necessary extension of time for the 2009 PA. That's just the way I see it. If I'm wrong I stand to lose a lot of money by my personal standards. But I'll be in the company of some very powerful people and business interests who will be losing much, much more and who can't be rolled quite so easily. RE: Why I own Interoil - Tree - 04-15-2013
'kommonsents' pid='20732' datel Wrote:I, too, am invested in IOC for the resources for the past 3 or so years and agree with most of Ltinvest's post. However, I am not clear on what rights IOC actually has in the resources now and as of June when the 2009 PA apparently expires. Can someone knowledgeable about this issue please explain it for me? This has been discussed. 2009 PA will not expire and lock IOC out of an LNG project. IOC, their IB's and bidders are all keenly aware of the 2009 PA and the approved contingent amended PA granted last November. It's not possible that the PA sunset was not addressed in the amendment. The fact there are several, most likely meaning 6 bidders that submitted their binding bids by Feb. 28th is proof there is no short term PA sunset.
RE: Why I own Interoil - kommonsents - 04-15-2013 Thanks Art and Tree. That all is logical and makes good sense. RE: Why I own Interoil - Palm - 04-15-2013 Agree on the PA expiration. PNG has a history of working with companies who invest in PNG. Any license and agreement must have an expiration. But they also have exceptions and terms for extensions. Both IOC and LNG have done things which have slowed down the process and should any extension be necessary, given the fact that negotiations are ongoing, it's hard to believe there would be any problems. |