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+--- Thread: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors (/showthread.php?tid=3382)
Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - Tree - 04-16-2013
From 3 sources in different US and Asian timezones:
Report on breakout session today:
WA made a point of stating PNG transactions have been from $.80-$1.20/Mcf .- Why say that unless IOC can beat it?
WA alluded to a fully funded 8 well annual drilling program - Wowzer.
Some say rumor of a $3-$4 billion transaction. - Is this 25% of PRL15?
WA quoted:
|
"We've got good interest and great advisers and should be able to announce something soon (soon = speedily, without delay, immediate)," |
Some say SM will be operator as choice is between 2 now - SM yields larger pps pop upon announcement
IOC received PNG JVOA approval for LNG project - if true this is huge 
Last weeks rumors:
IOC ready to announce Shell as partner
~$1.40 Mcf bids
IOC BoD headed to PNG this weekend.
Q: Put it all into the rumor grinder and what comes out?
A: Insighter Info.
So what happens and when kids?
What have others heard?
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - SamAdams - 04-16-2013
'Tree' pid='20835' dateline='<a href="tel:1366078 Wrote:From 3 sources in different US and Asian timezones:
Report on breakout session today:
WA made a point of stating PNG transactions have been from $.80-$1.20/Mcf .- Why say that unless IOC can beat it?
WA alluded to a fully funded 8 well annual drilling program - Wowzer.
Some say rumor of a $3-$4 billion transaction. - Is this 25% of PRL15?
WA quoted:
"We've got good interest and great advisers and should be able to announce something soon (soon = speedily, without delay, immediate),"
Some say SM will be operator as choice is between 2 now - SM yields larger pps pop upon announcement
IOC received PNG JVOA approval for LNG project - if true this is huge
Last weeks rumors:
IOC ready to announce Shell as partner
~$1.40 Mcf bids
IOC BoD headed to PNG this weekend.
Q: Put it all into the rumor grinder and what comes out?
A: Insighter Info.
So what happens and when kids?
What have others heard?
I heard "soon" about 12 days ago and posted here so I think it's REAL Soon. Elk-3, JVOA, AG resigning....we may not need much more ice.
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - Brew Swillis - 04-16-2013
$1.20 meets my expectations, anything more exceeds them.
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - ebster123 - 04-16-2013
Meets threshold but is much less than the expected floor which was closer to Pre...time will tell
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - j4j - 04-16-2013
'ebster123' pid='20840' dateline='<a href="tel:1366106 Wrote:Meets threshold but is much less than the expected floor which was closer to Pre...time will tell
you think that at 70/shr the mkt is factoring in a 2.60 per mcf deal?
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - ebster123 - 04-16-2013
I don't think the market is factoring anything unless it expects a 0.60/mcf deal.
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - ltinvest - 04-16-2013
$1.20 is the average of deals in the region over the last 5 years. Pavel references it often. He also maintains his $100 price target based on $1/mcf and readily admits he's waiting on the deal to reset that number to whatever it actually is. Calio used a muvh higher mcf # and thus his price target is higher.
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - jft310 - 04-16-2013
pickboone•4 minutes 22 seconds agoFlag
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.
Ken,
I agree with Tree's analysis, and WA apparently listed the superior traits of the Gulf deal relative to the Cove transaction (offshore deepwater F&D costs much higher, Rovuma at least 3-5 years further out than the Gulf project, no gas act in Mozambique, no project agreement to produce at Rovuma, Rovuma has much higher infrastructure costs than the Gulf project and there's no readily available labor and equipment as there is in PNG from XOM's project), which some think means that he expects a much higher value than the $1 or so that Cove got. The purpose of writing this wasn't to engage in an argument about the relative merits of each project but rather to make the point that it confirms Wayne' belief that $1 an mcf, which is ~70% above the stock's current valuation, is too low. I'm guessing that, by now, he knows exactly what the bids for Elk/Antelope look like.
Tree makes some very compelling points, and although the rumors he cites are logical, they're still so far away from consensus and the stock's $.60/mcf valuation that the upside is stunning. I calculate the PRE deal to have been above $1.50/mcf on 2C (on an apples to apples basis with Elk/Antelope, meaning post certified resources) and that deal was done without any competition and the resource flow is further out unless it goes to XOM's project. The competition for Elk/Antelope has been much more fierce, the project is coming on stream much sooner, the resource is much less speculative, and majors are involved, so I think the valuation of this sell-down could imply a value of at least 2-3X InterOil's current valuation. And based on Wayne's comments, it seems to be coming very soon!
Last point - why is InterOil so focused on drilling Elk-4 and another Antelope well (yesterday was the first time we've heard this...) unless the project is going to be much bigger than investors think? I wouldn't be surprised if the Gulf project were 8-12mtpa.
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - jft310 - 04-16-2013
Not sure who pickboone is but I have my opinions because of his use of certain words but his comment Gulf project size of 8-12 mtpa fits with Henry Aldorf's estimates from the LNG videos. I bet Tree remembers what Henry stated on the videos and I bet others have heard Henry's latest estimates.Whatever is actually at E/A is not as material as is the monetization of the assets. And who gets the condensates?? All I hear is talk about the NG when the condensates may be more valuable than all the NG. I am sure the analysts post deal will include the condensates in their reports.Even at $90 a barrel retail priced IOC prints money.
RE: Mkt. Prefers Rumors - Here's Rumors - bam - 04-16-2013
I was at the meeting. Wayne simply referenced wall street analysts' $0.80-$1.20/mcf price estimates for similar transactions in the area, this was not the company's view. He was specifically asked if all the bids were over 60c/mcf and he responded "no comment". Wayne has looked/sounded very confident that last two IPAA meetings. I try not to read too much into it, but his attitude tells me things are moving along in an acceptable fashion.