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PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - petrengr1 - 04-17-2013
I think I may have breaking news here (no it is not about the sell down of PRL-15) but first let me get you set up. Let’s go to last year’s AGM presentation so we can get a map that is still readable: http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documents/investorrelations/presentationanddocuments/2012/2012-06-15_AGM_Final-1.pdf page 21. Now magnify my favorite map so you can clearly read the names of the prospects in PPL237.
At last year’s AGM Phil said he would like to drill some prospects in the vicinity of the planned infrastructure that will be built for Elk/Antelope. Now let’s look at the map and see which prospects are near Elk/Antelope. We don’t know if any of these prospects are limestone reefs but since they are right next door to the Antelope Reef and they are just across some faults in the same limestone platform, why shouldn’t we at least have a shot at finding another reef. As we move from Antelope to the west these fault blocks are down thrown or deeper than Antelope. When we are dealing with gas deeper formations mean the gas, if present, will be under higher pressure. When the gas in under higher pressure a given volume of reservoir rock having the same porosity will contain more gas than a shallower formation such as Antelope. As we move to the West from Antelope, getting deeper with each block, we cross Deer, Whitetail, Mountain Lion and Raptor/Duckbill. So the deepest prospect is the Raptor/Duckbill. And which one is the largest in area? That would be Raptor/Duckbill. It covers an area larger than Antelope. At this point let me remind you that we do not know if there is any gas at all here and if there is we do not how much of this large area is gas filled (or oil filled - my guess is gas) until we drill a well or a few wells.
Watching the pace of our drilling I have been thinking it would be years before we ever see a well at Raptor/Duckbill.
Now go to:
Page 105. This chart is PRE’s planned 2013 Exploration Drilling Campaign.
For the breaking news look at the bottom line to see Papua New Guinea. They plan to drill three wells in 2013. One in the second quarter (forget that) and two in the fourth quarter. And where do they plan to drill? Triceratops (we knew that) and (breaking news) RAPTOR/DUCKBILL!!!!!!
Well that’s the breaking news, now let’s see if they can deliver. In PNG, they may run behind schedule but at least we have an idea what they are thinking.
Have a good night.
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - Palm - 04-17-2013
Great discovery Pet! Looks like they are hoping to prove up even more the string of pearls.
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - ioccyclist - 04-17-2013
Great to have your insights, Pet. I have been reading posts from you and many other valued contributors at SHU for a long time. A long overdue thanks to all who contribute to this rich information flow.
Quite the breaking news! Also, on the following page in the PRE presentation it looks like PRE budgeting for 3 PNG wells in 2013 and 7 in 2014.
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - Tusker - 04-17-2013
'petrengr1' pid='20925' datel Wrote:
I think I may have breaking news here (no it is not about the sell down of PRL-15) but first let me get you set up. Let’s go to last year’s AGM presentation so we can get a map that is still readable: http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documents/investorrelations/presentationanddocuments/2012/2012-06-15_AGM_Final-1.pdf page 21. Now magnify my favorite map so you can clearly read the names of the prospects in PPL237.At last year’s AGM Phil said he would like to drill some prospects in the vicinity of the planned infrastructure that will be built for Elk/Antelope. Now let’s look at the map and see which prospects are near Elk/Antelope. We don’t know if any of these prospects are limestone reefs but since they are right next door to the Antelope Reef and they are just across some faults in the same limestone platform, why shouldn’t we at least have a shot at finding another reef. As we move from Antelope to the west these fault blocks are down thrown or deeper than Antelope. When we are dealing with gas deeper formations mean the gas, if present, will be under higher pressure. When the gas in under higher pressure a given volume of reservoir rock having the same porosity will contain more gas than a shallower formation such as Antelope. As we move to the West from Antelope, getting deeper with each block, we cross Deer, Whitetail, Mountain Lion and Raptor/Duckbill. So the deepest prospect is the Raptor/Duckbill. And which one is the largest in area? That would be Raptor/Duckbill. It covers an area larger than Antelope. At this point let me remind you that we do not know if there is any gas at all here and if there is we do not how much of this large area is gas filled (or oil filled - my guess is gas) until we drill a well or a few wells.Watching the pace of our drilling I have been thinking it would be years before we ever see a well at Raptor/Duckbill.Now go to:Page 105. This chart is PRE’s planned 2013 Exploration Drilling Campaign.For the breaking news look at the bottom line to see Papua New Guinea. They plan to drill three wells in 2013. One in the second quarter (forget that) and two in the fourth quarter. And where do they plan to drill? Triceratops (we knew that) and (breaking news) RAPTOR/DUCKBILL!!!!!!Well that’s the breaking news, now let’s see if they can deliver. In PNG, they may run behind schedule but at least we have an idea what they are thinking.Have a good night.
... an idea what they are thinking,
PRE JVOA perhaps.
Nice work you do,
Cheers
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - sageo - 04-17-2013
Pet -- Thank you..(a thousand times !) . Great reading! On your second pdf, pages 98 and 99 are also eye-popping !! Marvellous info. Thinking about adding a little more.Good luck,sir.
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - petrengr1 - 04-18-2013
(04-17-2013, 02:31 PM)ioccyclist Wrote:Great to have your insights, Pet. I have been reading posts from you and many other valued contributors at SHU for a long time. A long overdue thanks to all who contribute to this rich information flow.
Quite the breaking news! Also, on the following page in the PRE presentation it looks like PRE budgeting for 3 PNG wells in 2013 and 7 in 2014.
Ioccyclist- Thanks for pointing that out. Can you imagine the importance of this if they follow through with the 10 wells that they have budgeted for the next 18 - 20 months, and this is just in PPL237. At a minimum we will have several wells drilled at Triceratops and, apparently, at least one at Raptor/Duckbill. With ten wells to be drilled they could also have a well in Mule Deer, Whitetail, Mountain Lion and maybe one or more of the prospects in the Western part of PPL237.
When Wayne Andrews and Resourcearb talk about the reef prospects on trend between Triceratops and Elk/Antelope they are talking about Leopard and Jaguar which are in PPL238, see http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documents/investorrelations/presentationanddocuments/2012/2012-06-15_AGM_Final-1.pdf page 21. The “PPL237” on the map below the Leopard and Jaguar prospects is an error which IOC needs to corrected on their presentations. We need some additional seismic across the Leopard and Jaguar prospects so that a proper evaluation can be made of the geology and a location picked if appropriate.
IOC needs to make a farm-out agreement in the PPL238 and PPL236 similar to what they have done with PRE in PPL237. If we could get 10 wells drilled in each of the license areas in the next 20 months we could get a lot of these prospects evaluated. I hope I don’t need to tell you what that should do for the IOC stock price.
Note: I think IOC has only drilled about 11 wells in its history and that includes Moose-1 and Moose-2 which were drilled with the old Rig-1. Rig-1 was not capable doing much. Moose-1 and Moose-2 never reached their objective which was the Pale and Subu sandstones.
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - ioccyclist - 04-18-2013
Simply stunning to contemplate the drilling opportunities with an eager and cash flowing partner in PRE. This really puts punch behind the term "accelerated drilling".
Another question, Pet: What do you make of the names PRE is using their slide page 103 for prospects? Any of these new or are they simply duplicates/translations of current?
Thank you for your insights and great DD ..
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - petrengr1 - 04-18-2013
ioccyclist- I had not noticed the new prospects on page 103 but it appears to be 3 new prospects not previously mentioned by IOC.
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - admin - 04-18-2013
'petrengr1' pid='20965' datel Wrote:ioccyclist- I had not noticed the new prospects on page 103 but it appears to be 3 new prospects not previously mentioned by IOC.
We'll let that sink in for a moment 
RE: PRE's 2013 Drilling Campaign - Palm - 04-18-2013
And on slide 72 they have estimated 100% Resource Best of an estimated 558.5 MMboe. That's not recoverable estimate, but it's a pretty hefty estimate of what's there in those 4 prospects.