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+--- Thread: Well.. (/showthread.php?tid=3697)
Well.. - admin - 05-23-2013
Have to say, really robust price action. Market down. Energy down 2%, which is quite a lot. IOC flat. Solid stuff. With Chandler, who can almost be considered an insider, adding, it isn't surprising either.
RE: Well.. - Gator - 05-23-2013
Well indeed. What is the exit strategy for Richard Chandler? I calculate that the top 10 holders of IOC stock now hold 35,613,307 shares or 73% of all the stock. (I counted Phil and PIE Group as one) That is just the top 10 (sorry Dr. Byker, you are 11). This is starting to look like a one way trade as there is only one way more than one of the top holders could exit the stock at the same time: a complete and total (or is it Total) buyout of InterOil. Chandler Capital had been quiet for quite some time. Why now? Paulson & Co has never shown any interest in IOC (and very little in energy), why now? Something is up, and it is more than just the stock price. I don’t know when, I don’t know for how much, but I feel InterOil is in the final stages of being an independent company.
RE: Well.. - jft310 - 05-23-2013
Gator they voted those top 10 to not sell the company. They want to sell it off in pieces. Eventually they will sell it all. The reason is this could be an income device find more assets and do the E/A thing over and over again which has many advantages. They believe in the string of pearls idea. Why did IOC Officers just exercise and hold and why did Paulson buy more now?? Not to get short tax gains. If the Super Majors paid in stock that tax could be deferred but the sum received will be much greater with a sell off of parts. Why not milk this find.?? These type situations one doesn't find everyday. Think a cow milking machine vs casino in my opinion. Hope I am right
RE: Well.. - Libtardius Maximus - 05-23-2013
I'll start the scoreboard.
Gator-1
Jft-0
I'm with Gator for reasons I will not post.
RE: Well.. - tarulestheday - 05-23-2013
The longer this goes on, the more likely we will see a total buyout IMO.
Never thought I would be selling IOC puts at $85 but here we are. I don't think we ever see the eighties again. My sources tell me to hang tough and buy ANY dips.
Gator-2
Jft-0
RE: Well.. - jft310 - 05-23-2013
I am sure there are offers to buy it all but will the top ten shareholders vote for it?? Would have to be quite a price I would think. More than $200 a share. I hope the BOD and the top ten shareholders MAN UP. With every dollar above $200 its get harder and harder to hold on .I am short Sept $80 puts and agree with tarules we should go higher.
RE: Well.. - efi426hemi - 05-23-2013
Well my thoughts on a buyout are that it is complete insanity. If we took both of our rigs to Tri and drilled 2 wells at the optimal locations we could potentially add 4 TCF in 3 months at very low risk. Why would the top ten holders want to sell the entire company now when in a potential 3 months they could increase the company value by 33%??!!
Perhaps an entire buyout of PRL 15 and then rinse and repeat on future PRLs, but somehow I think our whales have a longer term vision than the next year. I strongly oppose a complete company buyout.
Gator - 2
Jft - 1
RE: Well.. - Tree - 05-23-2013
IOC has a stated plan and that is a SD. They have an annoying habit of stating and maintaining their plans. I agree there is no reason IOC will survive but they will only sell out if the offer is great. Kinda sounds like IOC could well have several E/A equivalents. I would love to see Shell take over IOC with a high offer and a requirement of a name change.
Exxon bought Mobil and became Exxon-Mobil.
Maybe Shell can be renamed IOC-Shell. Don't think that will happen.
Gator-2
JFT-2
RE: Well.. - jft310 - 05-23-2013
What if we have a small group of investors that want to make a great BIG PILE of money and they control 73% of the shares. Doesn't matter what the other 27% vote. Doesn't matter if the BOD wants to sell. Does matter what these 10 investors want to do. As I said they were polled in Dec and voted to NOT sell the entire company. This is May could they have changed their minds well maybe yes , reality I don't think so.
RE: Well.. - Tusker - 05-23-2013
(05-23-2013, 07:56 AM)jft310 Wrote: I am sure there are offers to buy it all but will the top ten shareholders vote for it?? Would have to be quite a price I would think. More than $200 a share. I hope the BOD and the top ten shareholders MAN UP. With every dollar above $200 its get harder and harder to hold on .I am short Sept $80 puts and agree with tarules we should go higher.
Only two of many mentions I will avail:
1) There is still 75-85 MTPA demand for LNG on the world market that is uncontracted between 2014 - 2020. (Future)
2) Like Henery said... you may have to sell of some of the cream at the beginning, but you will receive back a lot more later. (Return)
Jft-3
Tusker