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+--- Thread: Are June options dead money? (/showthread.php?tid=3810)
Are June options dead money? - charleydavid - 06-04-2013
I am asking for the opinion of the board to help understand if the decision (on 'the deal'
will break prior to a June 22 expiry. We seem to have lost the strength of the June expiry (my greeks arent looking good). Is this my official indication that the '60 day' window has pushed to July?
Are there any reasons for details to come sooner? I (imho) cant understand the complexity of so many decisions that have to be made btween IOC/XOM/PNG govt, nor the scale at which a total buyout would undertake by another party... what i do know is that we have announced a plan to partner with XOM... and the stock has walked off a cliff. Any reason to think we are getting what we are looking for in the next 19 days?
Thanks for the consensus of this board... Charley.
RE: Are June options dead money? - Petro2458 - 06-04-2013
I have no inside info...but I believe we get the deal in June. Your options are high risk....9.9 times out of 10 I'd say they expire worthless. But I'm hopeful we see the deal done before the july4 holiday.
RE: Are June options dead money? - jft310 - 06-04-2013
13 million people want a deal later than June option expiration, those short, Then we have the AGM June 24th on Monday. I would think IOC would want some details available for shareholders then.
The Question is when will that info come out.??
June options might be a gold mine but not to me.
Post deal announcement and post FID I think IOC will be $120 for sure. Sept seems safer than any June options.
RE: Are June options dead money? - smeltman - 06-04-2013
'charleydavid' pid='23654' datel Wrote:I am asking for the opinion of the board to help understand if the decision (on 'the deal'
Are there any reasons for details to come sooner? I (imho) cant understand the complexity of so many decisions that have to be made btween IOC/XOM/PNG govt, nor the scale at which a total buyout would undertake by another party... what i do know is that we have announced a plan to partner with XOM... and the stock has walked off a cliff. Any reason to think we are getting what we are looking for in the next 19 days?
Thanks for the consensus of this board... Charley.
Hi Charley. Options are very unpredicatable with IOC. I had a bunch of June's I closed out not too long ago (for a profit since i had picked them up in January and March). JMO, but I would not try to play any short term Call option buys. I've done best with IOC by buying Calls on down days that are more than 4 months out. I'm not doing anything earlier than Jan 2014's now.
Yes, it appears the deal will take in many different variables. Until they are made clear with the FID details, I think the MM's and others will play around with the stock price.
I would be conservative and take the 60-day window to be beyond July options expiration...
Use or flush (unless you are one of those unlucky ones who happens to have those weird 'eco' half-useless ones popping up around D.C. that don't even flush as we know it.)
RE: Are June options dead money? - tarulestheday - 06-04-2013
FWIW, I have been selling IOC calls since 2009. I am fully hedged via covered calls in July. I actually bought a few calls for Sept but they are like lotto tickets to me. With IOC, it is always later than sooner. However, I still believe the deal will be hugely accreditive for IOC. Looks like Q3 now for the SD deal with FID but if it's Q4 I would not be that surprised.
RE: Are June options dead money? - charleydavid - 06-04-2013
Thanks for the info. To smelt's point i too usually use a 120 day stick, however, my tie got caught in the chipper when XOM was announced with no details, and it was then i realized i didnt have a big enough auto out in place. The Friday -Mon absurdity caught me cold (as with many others i am sure)...
i am halfway out and getting into Jan14's but have another half to go...(and its a big half if you know what i mean)...
i am leaning on the idea that IOC wants to go into the AGM with a detailed story to outline and that the presser will be made available the week prior... its in these moments i feel like Alydar and never Affirmed
Thanks for the info folks... its appreciated.
RE: Are June options dead money? - ebster123 - 06-04-2013
Boy Steve, you are quite negative tonight. Respectfully, a very strong negative stance for a relative newbie. Time will tell....
RE: Are June options dead money? - Palm - 06-05-2013
Not concerned with options, but couldn't resist adding some traders here today.