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NQ's Path Forward - It's Not Rocket Science - Printable Version

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NQ's Path Forward - It's Not Rocket Science - doublebagger448 - 07-11-2013

Connect the dots. Atlantis is a $3.2 billion fund. They need a 5 - 6M share position to move the P&L needle for them. Atlantis bought 1.5M shares from NQ directly and another 1M shares in the open market as of the time of the announcement. Hence, Atlantis has another 2.5M - 3.5M shares of NQ to buy. Atlantis has been a steady buyer over the last week and will continue to buy for the next few weeks. This will take the stock higher ( to $10 - $11)

NQ was advised by Macquerie on the private placement to Atlantis. I would not be surprised to see Macquerie initiate coverage on NQ in the coming weeks. Macquerie's analyst is well-followed and respected in Hong Kong and Asia. Expect more incremental demand for NQ from a very positive Macquerie initiation = stock price goes higher (to $12 - $14)

NQ FINALLY has a rock star in the IR/Capital Markets role in Matt Mathison. NQ went from worst-in-class IR (dismal) to best-in-class IR with this hire. Matt will be working to institutionalize the holder list over the next 6 months. Every new fund that buys is another 500K - 5M shares of incremental demand. Massive new buying demand takes the stock up the next level ($14 to $20).

As NQ management has said, the deal pipeline remains full. I suspect we will hear more distribution and partner announcements in the coming weeks. Once NQ strikes another 1 - 2 distribution/partner deals with Tier 1 partners, the "credibility discount" will gradually dissipate and NQ will trade towards fundamental value. ($20 - $25++)

Fundamental value - NQ's is a SaaS company growing revenue 100% y/y with 30% adj operating margins. Comps with this financial profile trade at 17x - 50x++ 2014 EBITDA. At 17x 2014 adj EBITDA, NQ is $30. At 50x 2014 adj EBITDA, NQ is $80.

You can argue about the price levels for each step, but the path forward for NQ is clear. NQ is severely undervalued and will move sharply higher over the next 3- 6 months. I would not sell a share before $25.




RE: NQ's Path Forward - It's Not Rocket Science - admin - 07-11-2013

Clear enough for me Smile The triple digit growth, the positive cash flow, net cash in excess of $2 a share and a steady stream of new deals, something has to give..