World to Use 56% More Energy by 2040 Led by Asia, EIA Predicts

World energy consumption will rise 56 percent in the next three decades, driven by growth in developing countries such as China and India, the Energy Information Administration said.

Demand will increase to 820 quadrillion British thermal units in 2040 from 524 quadrillion in 2010, the EIA said in the International Energy Outlook 2013, with the two Asian countries accounting for half the gain.

“Rising prosperity in China and India is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a news release. “This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.”

Demand in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will increase by 90 percent through 2040. Use by OECD members, including the U.S. and Japan, will grow 17 percent.

The report also made these predictions:

-- Fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal, will supply almost 80 percent of world energy through 2040. Use of petroleum and other liquid fuels will grow to 115 million barrels a day in 2040 from 87 million in 2010.

-- Liquid fuels will account for 28 percent of demand in 2040, down from 34 percent in 2010.

-- Brent crude will average $106 a barrel in 2020 and $163 in 2040, valued in 2011 dollars. Brent, a gauge for more than half the world’s oil, averaged $107.83 this year through yesterday.

-- Natural gas use will grow 64 percent, faster than any other fossil fuel. Consumption will be 185 trillion cubic feet in 2040, up from 113 trillion in 2010.

-- Renewable and nuclear, the fastest-growing sources, will increase by 2.5 percent a year.