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+--- Thread: T2 Results? (/showthread.php?tid=428)
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- ebster123 - 02-25-2012
We are certainly within the window for IOC to hit the T2 reservoir. Pet, Tree, Palm, Hemi ect. when should we expect to hear something? Is it likely we will hear a "leak" of information before an official announcement? How long after the reach the reservoir before they can qualify and quantify the find? Thanks!
- Palm - 02-25-2012
Ebster, word from one of most reliables (iluv) is that we are still 2-3 weeks away. if we remember, management left a very big window open because of the nature of the beast (Pet has explained how much pressure there most likely is at the top of this formation, and that they will have to be very careful). IOC is wisely taking their time as they go to be sure they don't have anything happen tha would be a huge setback. Pet has mentioned the ultimate of what could happen should there be a gas kick, and i'ts not pretty.
It is interesting that we have had this strength with the pps without any drilling update as far as being at the topof the formation,etc. Other positive things must be going on with negotiations,etc.
That's all I have.
- ebster123 - 02-26-2012
Thanks Palm. I also have to thank STP, SHU and all of the contributors here on this site. As I look at Yahoo it makes me want to vomit. The number of impostors, bashers and fakes is ridiculous. Thanks to all on SHU!!
- trans - 02-26-2012
Maybe this can help: addressing Ant #2 well
$34.65 9/17/09 Top of limestone news release
41.90 9/18/09 One day after news release, then $36-38 rollover low followed by:
42.69 10/5/09 +20% 11 days until new breakout highs, present match should equate to $78
54.32 10/20/09 +58% 35 days til this next rally high. Present match would equate to $102
84.05 1/6/10 Final rally high 111 days from top of limestone news (9/17)release. Present match would equate to $156
"Present matches" assumes $65 price at present top of limestone release.
Just an idea of, if things go right, how the IOC price behavior unfolded back at Antelope #2 well drilling.
A fun exercise....
- ebster123 - 02-26-2012
Thanks Trans, although back then there were not majors bidding for the prospect and the heightened energy situation in Asia. It would seem once the asset is confirmed, things will move much quicker and higher than they did in 09'. IMO there is a greater likelihood of other buyers, from the street, into the stock once the reservoir is realized and also a bit of a feeding frenzy from the majors buying for more of IOC. This time around the environment seems better primed for energy assets.
- sageo - 02-27-2012
Maui-You had stated in previous post,we could set 9 5/8" casing by 2/28/12(if all went well).Best guess now,approx. what depth would base of casing be located? Pet-if top of reef(dolomite) does have porosity greater than 14%, would the psi increase or decrease? Thanks!
- admin - 02-27-2012
My pleasure, ebster, thanks.
- petrengr1 - 02-27-2012
Sageo - The porosity has nothing to do with what the pressure will be. The pressure at the top of the zone will depend on the pressure of the aquifer and the thickness of the gas column.
I made an attempt to calculate the reservoir pressure at http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=26290&tid=322456&mid=322532&tof=-1&rt=1&frt=2&off=1 but of course this is based on several assumptions since we do not have any facts.
The following assumptions were made:
1. Top of the reservoir 4331 feet.
2. The aquifer is at “normal” pressure of 0.433 psi/ft.
3. Gas column thickness of 2015 feet.
Based on these assumptions the reservoir pressure would vary from 2747 psi at the gas/water contact to 2604 psi at the top of the zone.
- maui4marko - 02-27-2012
aloha sageo, my calcs at the beginning of Feb http://shareholdersunite.com/forums/topic/ipaa-presentation/ projected we would either be finishing up the 13-3/8" casing to ~3,100' or at the most optimistic could be setting the 9-5/8" casing at ~4,330'.
It's important to note that these calcs are based purely on a project scheduling approach using input from Interoil pressers overlaid with Pet's analysis.
Taking a 50,000 foot view of the the progress, along with Iluv's feedback over the weekend that there's 2-3 weeks remaining to next drilling milestone (and expecting slow and cautious approach) my best guess is we're at roughly 3,700 - appx midway through the 9-5/8" casing.
Until we get a drilling update, it's all speculation but I'll go out on a limb and project we hit TD in the late May (or early June at the most pessimistic) time frame.
Pet, can you apply some subject matter expertise to the above and temper with a better informed opinion?
PS palm - confirming my dereliction of duties re: EWC news update... I'll just say the early season fishing's been great
- jft310 - 02-27-2012
Whats needed is top of the formation news and hopefully Dolomite.Thats 2-3 weeks away we guess.There should be clear buying pressure along the way to that news and deal news.