My friends,

Given that I don’t want to be seen as selfish , below are some clarifications on the selldown deal.  Use or flush.

The Word “Negotiations”

• There are NO, I repeat NO negotiations left between IOC and XOM on the “Initial 4.6 Tcf selldown”
  
  • They may be negotiating the next 4.6 Tcf chunk, ownership in Triceratops or a percentage ownership in the PNG LNG plant, however there are NO negotiations left between IOC and XOM on the “Initial 4.6 Tcf selldown”.

• What “Negotiations” really MEANS is completing the SPA by converting the details from the term sheet into a legally binding document.
  
  • XOM has told IOC that they must use the word “negotiations “ while the legal work is being completed.  I have no idea why, but XOM is OCD and X the big fish in the fish tank….

• The “Negotiations” on the selldown have nothing to do with WHERE the 4.6  Tcf will be processed as this will be determined after the selldown is complete.
  
  • Clearly they have a good idea where that will be now and a betting man would likely choose the 3^rd train at PNG LNG.

• Further clarification on XOM OCD and the SPA "Negotiations"  can be found here

Timing

• Timing is impossible with IOC and the selldown should be treated as a checkbox, however:

• Legal details of agreements of this complexity take anywhere from 17-25 weeks (4-6 months) – or longer.

• IOC announced exclusive “negotiations” with XOM on May 24^th, 11 ½ weeks ago.
  
  • If we use the low end of the 17-25 weeks this puts us in the last week in September for completion.
  • If we use the high end of the 17-25 weeks this puts us in the last week in November for completion.

• Possible unknown delays (I have no idea if these will or will not impact when announcement is made)
  
  • IOC or XOM requiring Board approval before putting pen to paper
  • Official government approval in parliament
  • Organizing a signing ceremony

My Speculation

• From a prior post, I know that IOC and XOM lawyers are extremely motivated to complete the legal documentation as soon as possible and that they are in constant communication and working long hours.

• With that in mind, I am leaning towards the lower end of the 17-25 weeks to hear about completion of selldown deal.
  
  • I would be pleasantly surprised to hear of the deal completion by end of August or early September.

With that all being said I hope IOC is crystal clear in their announcement of the selldown details as I believe they are complex and I am not sure the market will immediately get it.  But that is a post for another day.

Hey Petro, yup I was referring to obessive compulsive disorder, however after reading your description I am not it fully applies as I don't think XOM performs excessive washing or cleaning.

'Petrovale' pid='27108' datel Wrote:Hemi, thanks! Did you mean this OCD??? Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is an anxiety disorder characterized by ...

Gosh. Maybe I have that ... Could that be why I bought hundreds and hundreds of IOC shares this morning between 9:55 and 10:15 a.m.? <g>

Seriously, thanks for sharing.

There are no accidents with InterOil. Remember, 9 million man-hours?

Okay, maybe they don't count shareholders ...