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Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Printable Version

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Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Resourcearb - 08-23-2013

1)    Exxon is keen on closing a deal with InterOil as soon as possible… “Sources said Exxon­Mobil is keen to close the deal as soon as possible, given the end of the exclusivity period and InterOil being receptive to other offers”

2) Shell (and possibly another party) has submitted a new bid for InterOil’s resources… “well-placed sources said Shell has submitted a new offer, and possibly another party also”

3) The author’s sources believe that Shell is contemplating bidding for all of InterOil if Exxon and InterOil consummate a deal… “Sources said this intriguing saga could take another turn if ExxonMobil closes a deal with InterOil in which case Shell could contemplate a takeover of the Canadian producer”

4) InterOil's stock trades near $0.60 per mcf for the most valuable unencumbered natural gas resource in the world that multiple supermajors are finally vying for.  The economic NAV of the gas is well in excess of 5X this value, or more than $300 per share for Elk/Antelope, and this embeds no value for Triceratops, InterOil’s unique acreage position including the soon to be drilled Wahoo structure, or the company's downstream assets.

5)  The stock is down over 23 points from its recent high despite the exclusivity lapse having made Exxon more “keen to close the deal” and despite a new confirmed bid for the resources from Shell.




RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Spartina - 08-23-2013

Great stuff, Thank you RA.


RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - jft310 - 08-23-2013

'Resourcearb' pid='27898' dateline='<a href="tel:1377257 Wrote:

1)    Exxon is keen on closing a deal with InterOil as soon as possible… “Sources said Exxon­Mobil is keen to close the deal as soon as possible, given the end of the exclusivity period and InterOil being receptive to other offers”

2) Shell (and possibly another party) has submitted a new bid for InterOil’s resources… “well-placed sources said Shell has submitted a new offer, and possibly another party also”

3) The author’s sources believe that Shell is contemplating bidding for all of InterOil if Exxon and InterOil consummate a deal… “Sources said this intriguing saga could take another turn if ExxonMobil closes a deal with InterOil in which case Shell could contemplate a takeover of the Canadian producer”

4) InterOil's stock trades near $0.60 per mcf for the most valuable unencumbered natural gas resource in the world that multiple supermajors are finally vying for.  The economic NAV of the gas is well in excess of 5X this value, or more than $300 per share for Elk/Antelope, and this embeds no value for Triceratops, InterOil’s unique acreage position including the soon to be drilled Wahoo structure, or the company's downstream assets.

5)  The stock is down over 23 points from its recent high despite the exclusivity lapse having made Exxon more “keen to close the deal” and despite a new confirmed bid for the resources from Shell.

Appears to be a buy rating?




RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Palm - 08-23-2013

Those who bought down at these levels again are winners.


RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Resourcearb - 08-23-2013

And finally, the author has changed his perspective on which train InterOil's gas will underpin (previously wrote that Elk/Antelope would underpin train 4)... "If ExxonMobil is successful, it looks more likely that Elk-Antelope will underpin the third train at PNG LNG following revelations by project co-owner Oil Search that resources such as P’nyang and Juha North and the Hides expansion are still two years away from being ready for a final investment decision."  This implies earlier back end cash flows to InterOil from the SPA and highlights Exxon's lack of PNG LNG expansion options beyond PRL 15.




RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Petrovale - 08-23-2013

Thanks Resource, good stuff, as you predicted !!


RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Tree - 08-23-2013

http://blogs.platts.com/2013/05/02/shell-lng/

Christine laid it out quite well. There has been 2 different aspirations. XOM for expansion. RDS for Gulf LNG. TOT lingering. Phil not happy with control to a SM. Gov't ideally gets expansion and a Gulf LNG or wherever 2nd plant will be (napnap still makes sense). They do have the 50% opt in card to throw around as well. Let's get the 4.6 T SPA out of the way this month and let 4th train vs. 2nd LNG project bid war commence.


RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - TxPm - 08-23-2013

I hope the US publications pick this article up as much as they picked up Price's


RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - algon223 - 08-23-2013

'TxPm' pid='27905' datel Wrote:I hope the US publications pick this article up as much as they picked up Price's

Unlikely to be picked up as it seems to be more than 3 months old. Presumably this is not the piece referred to in Resourcearb's posting.




RE: Concise summary of last night's Upstream article on RDS's bid - Investor1979 - 08-23-2013

'algon223' pid='27908' datel Wrote:

[quote='TxPm' pid='27905' dateline='1377261465'] I hope the US publications pick this article up as much as they picked up Price's

Unlikely to be picked up as it seems to be more than 3 months old. Presumably this is not the piece referred to in Resourcearb's posting.

 Must be recent , since it refers to end of Exclusivity Period.