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+--- Thread: The short echo chamber (/showthread.php?tid=5501)
The short echo chamber - admin - 12-10-2013
Working overtime:
The company's recent share-price decline seems due to investor displeasure with the bidding process result. Total SA, a major international oil and gas company, acquired a 47.5% interest in InterOil's petroleum license 15, the one holding the Elk and Antelope fields. The winning bid, an upfront cash price of around $900 million, suggests the complete project is worth around $1.9 billion; a figure that disappointed the market, which apparently was looking for a significantly larger amount.
Is InterOil a Bargain After Its Recent Fall?
Then we have Keubiko, aka bonkthegrups, doing a number on my SA article, pouncing on a typo (since corrected) and arguing my calculation is off by a factor more than 2x, all the way egged on by trolls..
The typo was completely immaterial to the calculation itself (which is not off, by any factor), if he had looked he might have noticed as it was hardly a complex calculation. Certainly after having been given no less than five explanations to clear the matter up..
RE: The short echo chamber - arthurbell - 12-10-2013
'admin' pid='33738' datel Wrote:Working overtime:
The company's recent share-price decline seems due to investor displeasure with the bidding process result. Total SA, a major international oil and gas company, acquired a 47.5% interest in InterOil's petroleum license 15, the one holding the Elk and Antelope fields. The winning bid, an upfront cash price of around $900 million, suggests the complete project is worth around $1.9 billion; a figure that disappointed the market, which apparently was looking for a significantly larger amount.Is InterOil a Bargain After Its Recent Fall?
Then we have Keubiko, aka bonkthegrups, doing a number on my SA article, pouncing on a typo (since corrected) and arguing my calculation is off by a factor more than 2x, all the way egged on by trolls..
The typo was completely immaterial to the calculation itself (which is not off, by any factor), if he had looked he might have noticed as it was hardly a complex calculation. Certainly after having been given no less than five explanations to clear the matter up..
Well I for one thought your article was a real humdinger! Someone needed to run the math! What I see is unlimited upside and what's wrong with that!? These short sell people will say or do anything when they are wrong but I do not think they know they are wrong!
RE: The short echo chamber - admin - 12-10-2013
humdinger, I actually had to google that
Thanks. Meanwhile, Bonk is doubling down with more fudge, it's becoming quite a spectacle.
Guess it's part of the territory, but the one thing I really hate is when people write in bad faith.
RE: The short echo chamber - ltinvest - 12-10-2013
While reading your article and the comments, Bonks remarks reminded me of the old adage: "figures lie and liars figure."
RE: The short echo chamber - Palm - 12-10-2013
Thing that's amazing is they say, "The deal is good. I like it." Then they rip into it using what appears to be bad data. Say now it's derisked and more of a valuation play, but then pull out all stops to drive it lower. What's behind that?
When it's legal to establish a position (short like WT or long like CI) then publicize like, "I will reveal my new largest short position", then release an 80 or whatever page paper and down she goes ( or up in the case of CI), the system is broken badly. A name, lots of money and lots of friends, lets you make or break a company. And the data used can suspect and it still has the desired effect. Amazing.
RE: The short echo chamber - admin - 12-10-2013
Yes, I've seen this happen twice now. Funny enough with some of the same people involved.
Have to say, I never saw Bonk as blatant a liar as tonight. Caught flat out, without a shadow of a doubt, he doubles down instead of admitting. Reminds me of bostonkenmore. Amazing stuff.
RE: The short echo chamber - ltinvest - 12-11-2013
Now the pathological liar Tilson has written ran article for Seeking Alpha. What fictional story has he come up with now?
RE: The short echo chamber - jft310 - 12-11-2013
To me it's a question of character . What type money manager stoops to hiring a person like Barry Minkow to write defaming
articles about companies for $40 k??? That answer is one who can't pick stocks ! More important was last Friday where Duma
leaked to Australia deal details without all the details . When did Tilson get the heads up? Dow Jones had one tranche vs 4 in
the deal . Most important also is there is no cap on the certification payment and the world press still reports the deal details
wrong. See the World Oil article today that has the highest payment at $3.6 Billion and that's flat wrong. There is no cap on the
certification payment!
RE: The short echo chamber - Palm - 12-11-2013
I broke my rule with SA to quickly see his arguement. For him to post this on SA is showing a bit of desperation IMHO. Then he states a still 50% that there is no commercial gas in PRL15 and says, "Big companies make dumb decisions all the time." and that either HE is right or Total as one of the biggest O&G companies in the world is wrong. Problem is it's not just Total saying there is commercial gas there. One could argue that, "Well look at what Total did with OSH. OSH so far has found nothing." Big difference. IOC HAS drilled BEFORE Total has come in. IOC HAS had the resource certified by GLJ (a very good company in Bonk's own words), and by GCA and by many industry experts that Hession asked to independently look at the data. These experts' opinion as well as Hession's? This is one of the largest finds in the Asia/Pacific in the last 20 years."
So it's not just WT's opinion vs Total. It's WT's vs a host of industry experts who have seen lots of data post-drilling. Guess we'll see who's right and whether the market agrees with his current pps valuation of $31 based almost solely on whether he or a host of experts in the O&G industry are correct.
RE: The short echo chamber - ArtM72 - 12-11-2013
I don't know if Duma leaked any "details" and to be fair, that World Oil article was from several days ago. The information that set up the St. Nicholaus Day Massacre was the release attributed to Total where they highlighted probably the worst case scenario for the deal. And, recognizing the legendary ethics of major oil, as a business beat writer, whose story would you go with, a mega major's or a junior's? Better yet, it is always easier to simply repeat what others have reported.
The true measure of a man is not how many times he gets knocked down. It is how many times he gets back up.