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+--- Thread: So let me get this straight... (/showthread.php?tid=5749)
So let me get this straight... - ltinvest - 01-07-2014
IOC's current market cap is in the proximity of the CASH it will receive from TOTAL if the resource at E/A is recertified at approximately 6.5 Tcfe? Just the cash
RE: So let me get this straight... - jft310 - 01-07-2014
And how much cash do we get if GLJ and Knowledge Reservoir were right before these new wells.
RE: So let me get this straight... - admin - 01-07-2014
Yes, let alone what they'll receive if it's re-certified at GLJ's P50.. (which is $4.1B, while still maintaining 30% of PRL 15) and not even counting what they might find in the meantime with all that drilling that will start pretty soon.
While the big stock decline always looks dramatic, and I have no way of knowing whether the bottom is in sight, there is certainly a good case to be made for the shares being cheap, and some drilling success can easily turn this as quickly as it went down.
RE: So let me get this straight... - ltinvest - 01-07-2014
calculating a bit further....
If, IOC recertifies for 7.7 Tcfe (vs GLJ best case 9.9 Tcfe)
plus the $613m payment this quarter, that's
$2 Billion in 2015 + $613 in 2014 = $2.613 Billion received in CASH from Total
using a 10% discount rate, that's approximately the CURRENT MARKET CAP of IOC.
That gives NO VALUE to:
The refinery
30% ownership of PRL 15
Additional Drilling at PRL 15
PRL 39 (Triceratops)
PPL 236
PPL 237
PPL 238
Future CSP cash flow
Future LNG cash flow
None of it.
RE: So let me get this straight... - Libtardius Maximus - 01-07-2014
by my last count, I come up with .34mcf at current levels based on Calio analysis prior to deal announcement. Feel free to correct me but these are stranded gas levels.
Does the market really think IOC has no gas?
RE: So let me get this straight... - jft310 - 01-07-2014
Plus the new wells based on Dave Holland analyst
RE: So let me get this straight... - Thylacine-2 - 01-07-2014
In my opinion the market is not evaluating IOC on any sort of rational basis. The market is being manipulated. And I doubt if this is solely due to short funds.
RE: So let me get this straight... - ltinvest - 01-07-2014
there's no efficiency.....no rationality.....nothing close to what makes any sense.
various analysts have calculated NAV using conservative variables and have come up with price targets 60% to 120% higher than where we are now. It's beyond absurd!
RE: So let me get this straight... - ltinvest - 01-07-2014
If IOC simply recertifies at 9.9 TCfe....the GLJ best case after 3 seperate years of analysis......Total is paying IOC $4 BILLION is the next 18 months. Total could come in right now and write a $5 BILLION check and have the whole damn thing....every last bit of upside. What a ridiculous steal!
RE: So let me get this straight... - steve3752 - 01-07-2014
I think based on history there is just a distrust/ lack of confidence that IOC has the ability to actually get to FID.