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+--- Thread: Drilling and the Minority Interest (/showthread.php?tid=5962)
Drilling and the Minority Interest - jft310 - 02-12-2014
This just hit me ,obvious when you think about it . No drilling until the minority are bought out. Why the minority would never want to pony up money to drill , The new drilling partner will pay their prorata share . So my fearless prediction is the minority is bought out before we drill . Who will the new partner be? Total ??Need to drill before March 30 th and the licenses roll over . So I like the odds of all of this done by March 30th.
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - sageo - 02-12-2014
'jft310' pid='37186' datel Wrote:This just hit me ,obvious when you think about it . No drilling until the minority are bought out. Why the minority would never want to pony up money to drill , The new drilling partner will pay their prorata share . So my fearless prediction is the minority is bought out before we drill . Who will the new partner be? Total ??Need to drill before March 30 th and the licenses roll over . So I like the odds of all of this done by March 30th.
'jft' - If, (if,if) we can call this the "Mexican standoff", who blinks first ? Your thoughts if you please. Thanks.
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - jft310 - 02-12-2014
It's a win win for all . The minority gets fully cashed out of all interests and then the project can proceed as planned . Duma wants LNG by 2017 . Total will not want 47.5 percent of the LNG costs .
Thus we get more partners now is my guess. One scenario is for Interoil to cut a deal with the minority and then resell that interest to the new partners . Lots of ways for this to work out well for an IOC investor . Monetization is a good thing. Not to be feared . The govt wants this done
and is pushing. That's a good thing .
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - cybersssss - 02-12-2014
Drilling actually needs to start by March 8th
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - jft310 - 02-12-2014
Cyber what's March 8th. I am gettin old
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - jft310 - 02-12-2014
I checked with management . They say the pressure is on minority to close . Every dollar that IOC spends on their wells shared with them reduces the money the minority receives.
There is no requirement to spud by a certain date just show progress towards drilling . The IOC slides show tangible progress . March dates mean nothing it actual progress that matters .
With this progress the leases automatically roll over.
Every day that the minority waits is costing them big time money.
The loan is for drilling . Total had made an offer over drilling . I voted to not close the drilling agreement
with total for peanuts but drill ahead with the loan money and then sell a portion with hopefully good results.
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - Palm - 02-12-2014
I agree with this JFT and repeat:
1. June 6th is the date we need to have on radar, not Jan 31, not March 31st. The latter 2 are "goals" of management, not deadlines. June 6th is the date stated in SPA whereby an extension is needed if the deal is not closed by then. People need to burn this in their brains and calendars
2. March 8th license dates only will come into play if IOC is not showing progress toward spudding and the closing of the deal. MH spends more than 50% of his time in PNG and talking with the government to keep them informed of progress.
3. There is more pressure on IPI due to planned drilling which was presented in the most recent PR. They are preparing bases/roads/drilling pads etc, and mobilizing rigs. That incurs expenses which IPI will have cash calls. Then the big money due on calls starts once wells are spud.
Management has things well in hand, so put computers on sleep mode set to wake up in early June. If something happens before then, it's a bonus.
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - jft310 - 02-12-2014
Every day Civelli delays costs the minority BIG dollars
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - ArtM72 - 02-12-2014
'jft310' pid='37191' datel Wrote:I checked with management . They say the pressure is on minority to close . Every dollar that IOC spends on their wells shared with them reduces the money the minority receives. There is no requirement to spud by a certain date just show progress towards drilling . The IOC slides show tangible progress . March dates mean nothing it actual progress that matters . With this progress the leases automatically roll over. Every day that the minority waits is costing them big time money. The loan is for drilling . Total had made an offer over drilling . I voted to not close the drilling agreement with total for peanuts but drill ahead with the loan money and then sell a portion with hopefully good results.
I sure would feel better if I knew what kind of pressure is on "the minority" to close. If they get cash calls they can always sell down part of their interest to finance those calls if necessary. But then I still fail to see where the IPIs have any place in this deal. The SPA doesn't mention them outside the section on "definitions", unless of course the IPI is mentioned in the heretofore unrevealed JVOA, but that makes little sense.
The SPA named party is PacLNG which I take to be synonymous these days with Civelli even though as I recall IOC holds at least half ownership of that group. It isn't surprising that part owners of a company formed to build IOC's LNG plant still claim ownership value in that company notwithstanding an entirely different company will build and operate the plant (wherever it might be sited).
Maybe that's the entire issue and why we've never seen, only surmised the 30% IOC ownership of Gulf LNG. Just how long does anyone think it might take for a legion of attorneys to hammer out the value of a stake in an LNG company which has no LNG plant in its future?
As I continue to read this situation there is no visible coherent path to getting these many related issues settled and the SPA closed. All I read is idle uninformed speculation about a process going on inside a very black box. What does seem clear is the politics and greed apparent in the IOC story are proving to be a far more difficult challenge to answer than Hession and his advocates ever imagined.
Makes me dream of that small modular EWC plant just about now ready to start pumping that first 2 MTPA out into a thirsty market.
C'est la vie.
RE: Drilling and the Minority Interest - Kaliboo - 02-12-2014
[quote='jft310' pid='37193' dateline='1392143088'] Every day Civelli delays costs the minority BIG dollars [/quote
The IPI buyout has not been announced. Why? Is there not only one likely reson why? I.e. They don't have a deal. Why else? Could it be anything else? Why don't they have a deal? It can't be for lack of time. It's been 2 months. Could the govt be the holdup? No. They want this accelerated don't they? The IPI must not like the offer. Are the IPI staying current on cash calls? If I had bought into a deal that was preparing to drill several exploratory wells, no way I would sellout now. Drill those wells first. IOC may be in negotiations with Total to modify the SPA cause the IPI ain't selling. Why else would this drag out? Sorta like ioc's deal with XOM. MH didn't like that so he just let the clock expire. Worked for him. Maybe IPI are copying his tactics? If one or more exploration wells hit big then would you want to rethink the E/A deal with Total. The market gave some signals that the total deal wasn't pleasing and we're still in low 50s pps. IOC may have different news ahead as they usually do. Just being realistic.