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Percentage Clarification? - Markr - 02-28-2014
Using simple math it is my understanding that Total may close on 61.3% of IOC's 75.6114 %, leaving Total with 46%, Oil Search/IPI at 23% and IOC at 30% with 1% a little short for the remaining IPI holder. It is also my understanding that the government elective take comes from all of the above pro rata? Hession said first quarter 2014, now that Oil Search meets the prerequisite of taking out the IPI within the next two weeks, the 613 million can be paid before the end of the first quarter! No dilution to take out the IPI and no part of the 613 million has to be paid to the IPI holders to take them out. Once digested how can this not be viewed as a positive? No offense if I am not correct in my understanding, and I look forward to hearing other people's understanding and the basis. Thanks.
RE: Percentage Clarification? - ArtM72 - 02-28-2014
The Total deal requires IOC to deliver a 61.3% interest in E/A and IOC would acquire PacLNG interests prior to doing so. Anybody's guess what the next step is, but if I were Total I'd still be looking for my full 61.3, especially now with the OSH buy in guaranteeing government approval.
The OSH deal is not viewed as positive for those who believed a major consideration in the Total/IOC deal was a 30% ownership in the Gulf LNG project. Most of that (enormous) future cash flow now goes to OSH unless of course Total agrees to reducing it buyout percentage. We'll see.
RE: Percentage Clarification? - Thylacine-2 - 02-28-2014
Art, nothing requires IOC to deliver 61.3 %. If the deal were to close with the present terms of the SPA, then IOC would be required to deliver 61.3%. But like todays PR from IOC said, the final ownership structure will be negotiated. IOC isn't the orphan at the door. IOC is the present holder of PRL15. And of other desirable licences which Total and OSH would like to partner in.
All of the partners will sit down and decide in a professional manner, professionals on good terms with each other, what the final ownership structure is going to be. It's likely,imo, they have already talked about the matter. There is no indication by anyone that I know of which would indicate that the partners have an adversarial relationship. It's in the interest of everyone concerned that they partner in good faith and stay on good terms with each other.
IOC will be satisfied with the final ownership structure. And I imagine most of us will be as well.
RE: Percentage Clarification? - Palm - 02-28-2014
Agree Thylacine. The Spa clearly states that IOC will "directly or INDIRECTLY" acquire the Pac LNG Interests. OSH has "indirectly acquired those interests and in the mean time become the strategic partner spoken of in the Total PR. Sometimes we try and think too linear while these guys wheel and deal to get the deal done. "The Art Of The Deal". No play on the "Art" there. Hohoho
RE: Percentage Clarification? - Petro2458 - 02-28-2014
IOC has a decision to make; if they sell the entire 61.3% to Total (Total indicated in their Dec 6 release would be reduced by as much as 19.3%. IN order to keep 30% net (38.71% working) of this project they will need to reduce the Total deal from 61.3% to 38.49% working (also 30% net to Total).
RE: Percentage Clarification? - CesiumFormate - 02-28-2014
You can not just a book until it has been written and you have read it. So far Hession appears to be pretty creative in pulling this deal together. Let's judge it when it is finished.
CF
RE: Percentage Clarification? - ArtM72 - 02-28-2014
'CesiumFormate' pid='38229' datel Wrote:You can not just a book until it has been written and you have read it. So far Hession appears to be pretty creative in pulling this deal together. Let's judge it when it is finished. CF
I like the book analogy. It works well. I'm not so sure though who the author was, or for that matter, the editors. Let credit fall where due.
RE: Percentage Clarification? - Palm - 02-28-2014
Assuming the gov't takes its 22.5% and IOC ends up at 30%, that means OSH (per their footnote in the YE presentation) ends up with 17.3484 and that leaves 30.1516% for Total. In their PR Dec 6th Total said they would end up (after the strategic selldown) with 42% before Gov't buyin and 32.5% after. They have since said they could end up with less. So this is very close IMHO to where things will end up. In that PR Total stated that if they ended up at 42% prior to govt buying, they would pay $434 million, and PNG would be kicking in ther share of sunk costs. So in the end IOC ends up with more cash net since the IPI interests were taken out already. With this they can pay down some debt and have plenty for the aggressive drilling campaign.
Anyone see this much differently assuming the above?
RE: Percentage Clarification? - Getitrt2 - 02-28-2014
Palm, I agree that is very close to where it will end up, with some minor variation depending on what happens to the remaining IPI interest of 1.204% net, and let's hope so.
RE: Percentage Clarification? - jft310 - 02-28-2014
Markr seems to have nailed it. Supported by Palm and Getitrt . I agree