There are two good standards for a bubble. One is boring statistics, and the other is an exciting behavioral frenzy, on which so many good books have been written. And based on the boring statistics, the data is really very clear: We are not even that close to a bubble. With the S&P 500 at around 1860 recently, we are at about a 1.4- to 1.5-sigma event. Another way to say that is that we are between one and two standard deviations outside the normal distribution of stock-valuation levels. A two-sigma event would put the S&P 500 at 2350. So using the standard definition, it has to go up another 30% from here to get to a bubble. But you don't know when an ordinary market move is a bubble; you only know that in hindsight. As for the second test, which is euphoria, I like to joke that in 2000 here in Boston, Celtics replays were displaced at lunchtime at the greasy spoons by talking heads on TV. You would go to one, and they would be touting the latest Internet stock. But I've noticed recently that they are still playing the sports highlights on the televisions in the pubs here.

GRANTHAM: Stocks Are 65% Overpriced - Business Insider

The Chinese Internet industry is coming of age, as some of its biggest players prepare to start new chapters as publicly traded companies -- in the United States.

The biggest of them all, the e-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group, is aiming to file for an initial public offering in New York as soon as next month, people briefed on the matter said on Friday. Several analysts value Alibaba at north of $130 billion, and many predict that its I.P.O. may raise more than the $16 billion that Facebook fetched in its market debut nearly two years ago.

And Weibo, a major Chinese microblogging company seen as that country's answer to Twitter, filed on Friday for its own stock sale.

Net titans of China to go public in New York

We’re seeing signs that the recovery in Europe is progressing. I wanted to take a moment to highlight some of the positives, uncertainties and opportunities that we believe investors should consider about the region:

First, Europe appears to be past the worst of the fiscal retrenchment drag on growth. Leading economic indicators are trending up, including purchasing mangers’ indexes (PMIs) and retail sales. Effectively, this second derivative of growth is positive, not just in the US, but in Europe as well.

Secondly, credit spreads in Europe are easing, particularly in such countries as Spain and Italy, whose spreads are at their best levels in years.

And thirdly, consensus European earnings growth expectations of +13% to 14% for the coming year look healthy compared to consensus earnings expectations of +10% for the US.1

Lastly, European Central Bank (ECB) policy is likely to remain simulative in 2014 given the lack of inflation and the need for the ECB to err on the more conservative side regarding monetary policy ahead of incremental bank stress test and restructuring initiatives

Leading Indicators Offer a Window Into Europe’s Recovery | Invesco US

However, some people have other ideas..

There are two worries in this market, not one, and I don't want to minimize one for the sake of the other. Recently I've talked about how the froth, the action in the alternative-energy fuel-cell stocks, as well as the common stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, was deeply worrisome. You can't have a side-by-side market where there's immense froth in one subsection of the market and health in another. Just like in currency, the bad drives out the good, and froth can trump sanity in a heartbeat, as we know from 1999 to 2000. Of course, it can stay frothy for some time, so you can say, "Aha, there's froth, let's go." But you do have to be alert for it.

Twin Worries in the Market, Serious Fun: Jim Cramer's Best Blogs - TheStreet

Data out of China on Thursday showed weaker-than-expected growth for that country's output and sales. And, as it now stands, the Chinese stock market is at multiyear lows. One legendary technical analyst believes it's about to get worse for Chinese equities. Louise Yamada, managing director Louise Yamada Technical Research, says the Shanghai Composite Index is close to a breakdown. It's already off by 5% this year and is 33% lower than it was four years ago.

This chart says it's about to get worse for China: Yamada | Talking Numbers - Yahoo Finance

The increasing reliance on debt for growth is a consequence of China’s ultra-low domestic consumption. The excess savings of China’s state, household, and corporate sectors are channeled into the state-owned banking sector which loans it out to finance domestic investment. This is all fine, except that a country’s private debt to GDP ratio cannot rise forever – something eventually has to give.

China and the Dangers of Debt | House of Debt

The key reports this week are February housing starts on Tuesday, and February existing home sales on Thursday. For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the March NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. For prices, CPI will be released on Tuesday. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to taper QE3 asset purchases another $10 billion per month at this meeting.

Calculated Risk

Check the link for an extensive foreward look for the week. We first have that referendum tomorrow, of course..

Major U.S. indices moved largely lower last week despite posting better-than-expected economic readings. U.S. retail sales increased 0.26% in February compared to a 0.61% drop in January, signaling that consumers are increasingly willing to spend. Initial claims for unemployment also came in at 315,000 compared to 324,000 during the prior period, suggesting the country's employment situation is still improving.

International markets performed even worse than the major U.S. indices in many cases. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.59%; Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.37%; and Germany's DAX 30 fell 3.56% last week. In Asia, investors are becoming increasingly worried about a slowdown in China after industrial output slowed to 8.6% during the first two months of the year and property sales fell 3.7% compared to last year's 26.3% increase.

Chart Advisor | Investopedia

Very useful technical analysis of the main indices for the coming week..

When the market is volatile, individuals are tempted to wait for the “all clear” signal before investing. A look at history suggests this may be a mistake. In an examination of the historical returns of the S&P 500, the positive gains for an entire year are often obtained in a just a matter of weeks. An investor attempting to time the market is playing a dangerous game. If one is just a few days or weeks off in their timing, they can miss out on all of the return opportunity for the year.

Market Timing – A Losing Strategy - Zacks Investment Management

Very useful article with a host of examples.

Politically this story [Ukraine] dwarfs all others in the world but economically, some perspective is required. Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, noted that on a purchasing power parity basis China has 15 percent of global GDP, Russia has 3.0 percent and Ukraine 0.4.

China may make the weather despite Fed and Ukraine - Yahoo Finance