The way I do TA is a bit diff than the media.  I use 2 and 3 day short term strength ratings.  These strength ratings are on numbers released at day's CLOSE.  So they're  still maybe premature, but I want to give a hint of the internals going on.

The strength rating numbers for both 2 and 3 days appear significant building.   There are only three areas where strength ratings were similar and they were significant mkt bottom area that were important low areas.  They are as follows:

November 20, 2008

January 15, 2009

August 18, 2011

I will have to review further, but these numbers present so far today were in significant low areas I believe, maybe not eh exact low

fwiw....trans

that's 6 years of data

Thanks Trans. Some more perspectives:

Last week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) index fell to "some pretty critical levels," including the 200-day moving average and reactionary low of 1,904, Jeffrey Saut, managing director at Raymond James, said on " Squawk Box ." But the index was "very oversold on a short term basis." he added. "It's a logical place to try and rally here. I think it's a bull trap," Saut said. "I think we get a rally attempt here, but I think eventually stocks go lower, but it should be viewed within the context of a secular bull market that has eight to 10 years left in it."

Stocks to rally after 10% correction: Pro - Yahoo Finance

I have to say that I have some trouble taking statements about 8-10 years into the future seriously though..

'Getitrt2' pid='50843' datel Wrote:trans, are you talking about specifically IOC T/A?

  No, overall market.   I need to go back and review further., but want all to understand the signal is on close, I am just giving a warning that we're close to it, and also that in very weak markets it can be somewhat premature of a bottom. Best thing here is to use it as a "shot across the bow" that the decline has linely in its latter stages.  It can also produce a good trading rally after getting those numbers.  It can see a rally develop and then fail again to lower low.  I would say definitely that if we rally and fail, that breakdown will almost certainly call a big bottom

That's a great way to make a bottom, rally and fail, take out low and all of wall street shorts or hedges......  a rally here, and a break below 1905 should carry to 1870-1880 in a hurry.  Let's let this develop a bit further, imo

'mikesioc' pid='50847' datel Wrote:Great point Admin, especially with regard to IOC. Impossible to take 10 year projections seriously.

I believe this thread has been hijacked a bit and is getting misleading.

Trans was discussing his method of using 2 and 3 day short term strength ratings.  Then he pointed out historical price action after similar actions in pps.  He didn't talk about projecting 10 years.  That was in an article that Admin posted.

I think everyone knows we can't rely on any projections of future price movements along with timing, whether a day, a week, a month, a year or a decade.  But TA allows one to apply similar past patterns to present day.  Doesn't always work, but it's better than a crystal ball, IMHO.  I use TA, though not as in-depth as Trans and it helps my a lot, especially if I act on it.

I appreciate your TA posts, Trans, and it does help me.  Keep them coming!

'admin' pid='50849' datel Wrote:Well, so much for that 200 day moving average (S&P, needless to say)..

If you take the time to check back, almost all the time a popular moving average is made to be broke,  usually go thru them, like a stop loss in commods and the MM's and smart traders have a bucket out,  lol...but true.    If you traded going thru moving averages, it would be random walk performance.  sometimes you win, but it take it right back and more.  I used to bat them with a computer