Having been trying to reply to the drilling announcement, wtih no luck. Sorry to start a new thread, but here's the post I tried to add:

This is a pretty unusual announcement, given all the uncertainties expressed.  Usually a company would wait for more definitive results, one way or the other, before making any announcement.  All I can think of is the pressure on the stock price recently has caused management to put out something positive.  That in itself is not normal behavior for most managements.

That said, I'm a little worried.  First, does the recent price decline - from 60 to 45 - indicate leaking (bad) new from the well site?  I conclude yes.  It's difficult to keep news quiet anyway, but in such an intense stock market there are a lot of incentives.  There are big-time shorts and well sites can be easily scouted, not to mention contract drilling, logging, and mud tech crews potentially loaded with paid informants.  It's not hard - give a logger $10K and he'll tell you anything.  I'm further convinced of leaking news because of the more recent stock recovery - from 45 to 51 - again right in advance of hard news.  I think people know things and are acting on them.

Second, the announcement itself.  Bobcat looks bad.  They've drilled the primary objective and run casing, which means they've logged the zone.  There's no mention of hydrocarbons or testing, so, although they plan to drill ahead (in a very small hole with little reach), the well is most probably a dry hole.

Raptor definitely looks better.  They've drilled 200 meters of potential reservoir.  Since they now plan to test, it means they've logged the zone and see a base water contact at some point in that interval, so no more drilling.  (You test after final drilling, not during.  If they didn't see base water, they would drill ahead).  So the well is finished.  I wouldn't read too much into what type or column.  Logs are pretty definitive in limestone reservoirs, so I think they already know what hydrocarbon and how thick.  Testing will prove, or not, the readings to everyone's satisfaction, but importantly, as they stated, will establish flow rates, pressures, reservoir quality, etc.  So the whole thing is a mixed bag.  FWIW

Again, sorry - I misread the Bobcat info. Bobcat is still alive as they MAY have seen only the very top of the objective. They can still drill ahead and have a full column to log and hopefully test.

Re: market ups and downs and IOC leaks. (Admin and getitrt2) I recognize your arguments and know I could be wrong about the leaks, but I'll stand by it.  The market didn't decline that much, and since IOC has no production, it's hard to see oil prices causing such a steep decline.  Maybe it did.   What sold me, though, was the last few days of trading.  Several days of multi-point increases with no public news, followed by positive news.  That spells leak to me.  BTW, oil companies have people in their organizations with the job title of "Scout".  Guess what they do?

Re: my screw-up on Bobcat - I've apologized and sorry to have wasted your time, but I did post the correction before you posted the lecture.  Also, you want " Thoughts from our experts?".  I pretty much are one. You're totally right that they will continue to drill the objective at Bobcat.  Let's hope they find something.  But Raptor is finished drilling.  When you test a formation, you shoot holes (with actual bullets) in the pipe to let the fluids in.  The pipe safety is then compromised and although you squeeze cement in the holes, it's not a situation you want to continue drilling in.  It can be chanced, I suppose, but the safe way is to come up the hole - above the test zone - drill out a widow and sidetrack.  It's crazy and expensive.  No - you drill first; when you're all done, you come back and test.

'Northoil' pid='51082' datel Wrote:

Having been trying to reply to the drilling announcement, wtih no luck. Sorry to start a new thread, but here's the post I tried to add:

This is a pretty unusual announcement, given all the uncertainties expressed.  Usually a company would wait for more definitive results, one way or the other, before making any announcement.  All I can think of is the pressure on the stock price recently has caused management to put out something positive.  That in itself is not normal behavior for most managements.

That said, I'm a little worried.  First, does the recent price decline - from 60 to 45 - indicate leaking (bad) new from the well site?  I conclude yes.  It's difficult to keep news quiet anyway, but in such an intense stock market there are a lot of incentives.  There are big-time shorts and well sites can be easily scouted, not to mention contract drilling, logging, and mud tech crews potentially loaded with paid informants.  It's not hard - give a logger $10K and he'll tell you anything.  I'm further convinced of leaking news because of the more recent stock recovery - from 45 to 51 - again right in advance of hard news.  I think people know things and are acting on them.

Second, the announcement itself.  Bobcat looks bad.  They've drilled the primary objective and run casing, which means they've logged the zone.  There's no mention of hydrocarbons or testing, so, although they plan to drill ahead (in a very small hole with little reach), the well is most probably a dry hole.

Raptor definitely looks better.  They've drilled 200 meters of potential reservoir.  Since they now plan to test, it means they've logged the zone and see a base water contact at some point in that interval, so no more drilling.  (You test after final drilling, not during.  If they didn't see base water, they would drill ahead).  So the well is finished.  I wouldn't read too much into what type or column.  Logs are pretty definitive in limestone reservoirs, so I think they already know what hydrocarbon and how thick.  Testing will prove, or not, the readings to everyone's satisfaction, but importantly, as they stated, will establish flow rates, pressures, reservoir quality, etc.  So the whole thing is a mixed bag.  FWIW

If you look at Antelop2 you see that they did DST at several levels.

'Northoil' pid='51082' datel Wrote:

Having been trying to reply to the drilling announcement, wtih no luck. Sorry to start a new thread, but here's the post I tried to add:

This is a pretty unusual announcement, given all the uncertainties expressed.  Usually a company would wait for more definitive results, one way or the other, before making any announcement.  All I can think of is the pressure on the stock price recently has caused management to put out something positive.  That in itself is not normal behavior for most managements.

That said, I'm a little worried.  First, does the recent price decline - from 60 to 45 - indicate leaking (bad) new from the well site?  I conclude yes.  It's difficult to keep news quiet anyway, but in such an intense stock market there are a lot of incentives.  There are big-time shorts and well sites can be easily scouted, not to mention contract drilling, logging, and mud tech crews potentially loaded with paid informants.  It's not hard - give a logger $10K and he'll tell you anything.  I'm further convinced of leaking news because of the more recent stock recovery - from 45 to 51 - again right in advance of hard news.  I think people know things and are acting on them.

Second, the announcement itself.  Bobcat looks bad.  They've drilled the primary objective and run casing, which means they've logged the zone.  There's no mention of hydrocarbons or testing, so, although they plan to drill ahead (in a very small hole with little reach), the well is most probably a dry hole.

Raptor definitely looks better.  They've drilled 200 meters of potential reservoir.  Since they now plan to test, it means they've logged the zone and see a base water contact at some point in that interval, so no more drilling.  (You test after final drilling, not during.  If they didn't see base water, they would drill ahead).  So the well is finished.  I wouldn't read too much into what type or column.  Logs are pretty definitive in limestone reservoirs, so I think they already know what hydrocarbon and how thick.  Testing will prove, or not, the readings to everyone's satisfaction, but importantly, as they stated, will establish flow rates, pressures, reservoir quality, etc.  So the whole thing is a mixed bag.  FWIW

If you look at Antelop2 you see that they did DST at several levels.

'Relker' pid='51101' datel Wrote:

'Northoil' pid='51082' datel Wrote:

Having been trying to reply to the drilling announcement, wtih no luck. Sorry to start a new thread, but here's the post I tried to add:

This is a pretty unusual announcement, given all the uncertainties expressed.  Usually a company would wait for more definitive results, one way or the other, before making any announcement.  All I can think of is the pressure on the stock price recently has caused management to put out something positive.  That in itself is not normal behavior for most managements.

That said, I'm a little worried.  First, does the recent price decline - from 60 to 45 - indicate leaking (bad) new from the well site?  I conclude yes.  It's difficult to keep news quiet anyway, but in such an intense stock market there are a lot of incentives.  There are big-time shorts and well sites can be easily scouted, not to mention contract drilling, logging, and mud tech crews potentially loaded with paid informants.  It's not hard - give a logger $10K and he'll tell you anything.  I'm further convinced of leaking news because of the more recent stock recovery - from 45 to 51 - again right in advance of hard news.  I think people know things and are acting on them.

Second, the announcement itself.  Bobcat looks bad.  They've drilled the primary objective and run casing, which means they've logged the zone.  There's no mention of hydrocarbons or testing, so, although they plan to drill ahead (in a very small hole with little reach), the well is most probably a dry hole.

Raptor definitely looks better.  They've drilled 200 meters of potential reservoir.  Since they now plan to test, it means they've logged the zone and see a base water contact at some point in that interval, so no more drilling.  (You test after final drilling, not during.  If they didn't see base water, they would drill ahead).  So the well is finished.  I wouldn't read too much into what type or column.  Logs are pretty definitive in limestone reservoirs, so I think they already know what hydrocarbon and how thick.  Testing will prove, or not, the readings to everyone's satisfaction, but importantly, as they stated, will establish flow rates, pressures, reservoir quality, etc.  So the whole thing is a mixed bag.  FWIW

If you look at Antelop2 you see that they did DST at several levels.