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+--- Thread: Hints that A4 is going "well" (/showthread.php?tid=7705)
Hints that A4 is going "well" - davidhmtk - 11-27-2014
Reading between the lines of the recent utterances by Total, the PNG gov't, IOC, & OSH, everyone now seems convinced that there are at least 2 trains of gas in E/A? Why the shift in tone? Could results from A4 look good? Makes the most sense to me.
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - jft310 - 11-27-2014
No idea about A 4 . I view the last slides and see a feeder system to E/A including Raptor and Bobcat . Raptor has some type hydrocarbons and Bobcat is drilling the Kapua limestone which is where the hydrocarbons are supposed to be . Raptor also reaches into PRL 15 so worst case Raptor could help feed the E/A planned build and maybe more .
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - Kaliboo - 11-27-2014
We are at ~2 months and 10 days since A4 spud. It's about time for news any day. If another 2-3 weeks go by with no news then that won't be good sign.
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - johnwgrant - 11-27-2014
(11-27-2014, 01:27 AM)jft310 Wrote: No idea about A 4 . I view the last slides and see a feeder system to E/A including Raptor and Bobcat . Raptor has some type hydrocarbons and Bobcat is drilling the Kapua limestone which is where the hydrocarbons are supposed to be . Raptor also reaches into PRL 15 so worst case Raptor could help feed the E/A planned build and maybe more .
Not to be picky, but, aren't they already testing at Bobcat right now?
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - Getitrt2 - 11-27-2014
'Kaliboo' pid='52444' datel Wrote:We are at ~2 months and 10 days since A4 spud. It's about time for news any day. If another 2-3 weeks go by with no news then that won't be good sign.
I expect A4 to go faster than recent wells, but given that recent drilling history and previous Antelope wells, why would you be expecting A4 to get done THAT fast?
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - davidhmtk - 11-27-2014
'Getitrt2' pid='52447' datel Wrote:
'Kaliboo' pid='52444' datel Wrote:We are at ~2 months and 10 days since A4 spud. It's about time for news any day. If another 2-3 weeks go by with no news then that won't be good sign.
I expect A4 to go faster than recent wells, but given that recent drilling history and previous Antelope wells, why would you be expecting A4 to get done THAT fast?
What I know about drilling I have picked up here over the last 5 years. I doubt A4 is "done". It is, however, a shallow well and evidence confirming their understanding of the geology would come regularly.
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - Getitrt2 - 11-27-2014
I think IOC and Total have always had a high level of confidence in two trains at E/A, but that Raptor adds even more as another source if necessary, and also improves the outlook for possible future expansion beyond two trains and the likely value of the project, and increases the determination to go in that separate project direction.
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - Getitrt2 - 11-27-2014
'davidhmtk' pid='52449' datel Wrote:
'Getitrt2' pid='52447' datel Wrote:
'Kaliboo' pid='52444' datel Wrote:We are at ~2 months and 10 days since A4 spud. It's about time for news any day. If another 2-3 weeks go by with no news then that won't be good sign.
I expect A4 to go faster than recent wells, but given that recent drilling history and previous Antelope wells, why would you be expecting A4 to get done THAT fast?
What I know about drilling I have picked up here over the last 5 years. I doubt A4 is "done". It is, however, a shallow well and evidence confirming their understanding of the geology would come regularly.
That may be, but I doubt they are going to be giving us any updates before getting into the reservoir or perhaps even before completing the well.
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - sageo - 11-27-2014
'johnwgrant' pid='52445' datel Wrote:
'jft310' pid='52441' datel Wrote:No idea about A 4 . I view the last slides and see a feeder system to E/A including Raptor and Bobcat . Raptor has some type hydrocarbons and Bobcat is drilling the Kapua limestone which is where the hydrocarbons are supposed to be . Raptor also reaches into PRL 15 so worst case Raptor could help feed the E/A planned build and maybe more .
Not to be picky, but, aren't they already testing at Bobcat right now?
John- They should be testing. Ran the wireline logs a couple of weeks ago (if my understanding is correct). Very perplexing as to why we don't get some kind of report. ( I believe we were told" we will report results as we get them" or words to that effect). At this time that does not seem to be true. GLTALs.
RE: Hints that A4 is going "well" - Relker - 11-27-2014
According to below report page 3 Ant4 is phasing technical issues with the blow out preventer.
24 November 2014
Oil Search
(OSH.AX / OSH AU) 3
The reason we still need further clarification is that P'Nyang is the most expensive of the
fields to develop given its location in mountainous terrain, 120km West of Hides. It may
bypass Hides entirely by constructing a separate gas conditioning plant and a pipeline
directly down to Kutubu. This raises some question on whether infrastructure must be
duplicated, with an early conditioning plant expansion and Hides and then a new one at
P'Nyang in 10-15 years' time. The resource would have to be large for that to be worth it,
with OSH talking up 3-4Tcf vs. the currently booked 2.5Tcf.
P'Nyang is needed to get sufficient reserve coverage for a third train from the highlands.
But phasing is likely, similar to development at PNG LNG where Angore won't be
developed for 4-5 years (drilling now because rig was nearby) and Juha for another 10
years. But they are unitised in the same way as earlier fields, meaning OSH will benefit
immediately from its 38.5% share (Exxon has 49% so is not likely to be opposed, if the
economics and reserves stack up).
Elk-Antelope, timelines and co-operation uncertain
The confirmed new news here was incrementally negative as the Antelope 4 well has not
been drilling for weeks following issues with the blowout preventer. Interoil expects a
replacement to arrive this week. Delays increase drilling costs but the downside is limited
beyond that as Antelope 5 (and possibly 6) will be needed to fully determine the size of the
resource. Antelope 5 is to be spudded shortly, as the Raptor rig moves over later this
month. Certification is still on track for 2H15.
Oil Search's base case remains around 5tcf with substantial exploration upside. In their
view, the current Antelope 4 well is testing the downside case – a dry well could mean the
resource is only 3tcf. To test the upside case of 10Tcf, Oil Search believes Antelope 6 may
be necessary.
Antelope Deep is a high-risk exploration prospect, where the major concern is porosity. In
their view, this is also the reason why Raptor may not record high flow rates – Interoil will
be testing that well further this week but noted it has problem with high levels of mud and
sediments contaminating the exploration well (and therefore flow rates). Oil Search does
not have a stake in Raptor, letting the options to acquire PacLNG's share expire as there
was no clarity on resource size. Both sides are happy to await further information before
re-commencing talks. All these exploration prospect (incl. Wahoo and Bobcat) are longer
term developments.
On unitisation and arbitration...
There was certainly an indication at the meetings that Interoil is increasingly looking to
work closely with Oil Search (Interoil CEO Michael Hession presented at Antelope 3).
Whether that is to lean on Oil Search's technical experience, an indication of outcome of
the arbitration case or just good corporate citizenship is not known. But there was a lot of
praise of OSH management.
The benefits to integration are obvious, if difficult to quantify. Peter Botton spoke of NPV
savings of $6-700m which would line up well with earlier comments on $3bn gross savings
on expansion projects. Apart from the cost savings, the key benefit is a simpler and clearer
development plan if unitised into PNG LNG and optimised use of the common-user
infrastructure (PNG LNG has first right but must make excess capacity available – access
post expansion would have to be negotiated).