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China - admin - 04-16-2015

Paulson, in an interview in USA Today tied to a new book he’s written, is concerned about so-called trust companies, which are non-banks with over $2 trillion in assets there. He says they will have to contend with a wave of credit losses and debt restructuring. “It is important that China stop its over-reliance on municipal debt to finance infrastructure,” he said in an interview with the newspaper. “I take comfort in the fact that China’s leaders understand this.”

Hank Paulson says China financial system to face reckoning - MarketWatch

"The fundamentals are simply not there to back it up at the moment," Male said. "The Chinese will continue to stimulate an economy that is simply not growing the way the market believes." Brian Jacobsen, Wells Fargo Advantage Funds chief portfolio strategist, doesn't agree. He sees the Chinese economy as having strong fundamentals.

China market bubble? Bull vs. bear

All of this raises the question: Is China in the midst of a bubble? And if it is, what should American investors do? "Certainly a bubble exists," said Ankur Patel, chief investment officer at R-Squared Macro Management. Rather than enjoy the ride up or try to profit from its eventual popping, Patel said the prudent move for U.S. retail investors is to stay away from the Chinese market altogether.

Bubble trouble: China's stock market looks too hot - Apr. 15, 2015




RE: China - admin - 04-16-2015

The China stock bubble is getting more and more bonkers. This from Deutsche Bank: Bubble watchers point out median earnings multiples for Chinese technology stocks are twice US peer valuations at their dot.com peak. More worrying perhaps is a health-goods-from-deer-antlers producer on 70 times, the seamless underwear manufacturer on 90 times or those school uniform and ketchup makers on 330 times!

This is *really* nuts. When’s the crash? | FT Alphaville




RE: China - admin - 04-16-2015

We assume we’ve made our position on this pretty clear… but apparently Citi remain unconvinced. To wit: “If the Chinese market were to double from here it would indeed be in bubble. The same is true for Asia, a doubling would put us back at 3x book which over the last 40 years has been the peak – four times. When we get close to those levels we will be in a bubble, till then it’s a bull market.”

China and a short nuttiness debate | FT Alphaville




RE: China - admin - 04-18-2015

The world’s second-biggest economy is decelerating. The government reported Wednesday that first-quarter gross domestic product grew 7 percent, the slowest pace since the 2009 global recession. The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, sees Chinese expansion slowing even further to 6.8 percent this year and 6.3 percent in 2016. India is now the rock-star emerging market, tipped to grow 7.5 percent this year. At the same time, the scent of fast money hovers over Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, where stock markets are enjoying explosive rallies.

The Major Paradox at the Heart of the Chinese Economy - Bloomberg Business

buried in the numbers was an important milestone for China. The services sector for the first time accounted for more than half, at 51.6 percent, of GDP in the first quarter. Consumption growth was also solid.

The Major Paradox at the Heart of the Chinese Economy - Bloomberg Business

But in the eyes of many, the share-buying frenzy and wild bull market are all due to one thing: The Chinese government wants it that way. Like the “Greenspan put” of the dot-com era, in which U.S. investors believed then Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was backstopping the market, Shanghai now seems to be surging on the belief in a “Beijing put.”

‘Beijing put’ may be driving China’s stock-market fever - MarketWatch

The number of new equity accounts surged to a record during the two weeks ended March 27, five times the average of the past year, data from China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. showed on Tuesday. About 4 million were opened in March, enough for every person in Los Angeles. More than two-thirds of new investors have never attended or graduated from high school

China Enters Stock Frenzy as Rookie Traders Open Record Accounts - Bloomberg Business




RE: China - admin - 04-21-2015

China is urbanizing at a staggering rate—in 35 years, it has added more than 500 million people to its cities. As a result, it looks like the world has vastly underestimated the size and scope of growth in China's megacities, defined as those with more than 10 million people, according to a new report by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development.

China Has Even More Megacities Than You Thought - Bloomberg Business

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. became China’s first real estate company to default on its U.S. currency debt, capping a month of distress in bond markets amid an anti-corruption probe and fueling concern that losses will spread.

Major Chinese Developer Says It Can’t Pay Dollar Debts - Bloomberg Business

The People’s Bank of China may have tripled holdings of bullion since it last updated them in April 2009, to 3,510 metric tons, says Bloomberg Intelligence, based on trade data, domestic output and China Gold Association figures. A stockpile that big would be second only to the 8,133.5 tons in the U.S.

The Mystery of China's Gold Stash May Soon Be Solved - Yahoo Finance

The IMF estimates the dollar makes up 63 percent of world central bank holdings, while the No. 2 currency, the euro, accounts for 22 percent. Data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication show the U.S. currency was used for 43 percent of global payments in February.

The Mystery of China's Gold Stash May Soon Be Solved - Yahoo Finance

"What you got is a mercantilist export-driven model for China coupled with a Keynesian-on-steroids stimulus that occurs at the municipal level by building all sorts of public infrastructure that requires stealing land from farmers," the University of California, Irvine economics professor told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Wednesday.

Don't invest in 'unsustainable' China: Professor

China connected 5.04GW of solar capacity (nearly equal to France's) in Q1, the National Energy Administration reports. The figure brings China's cumulative installations to 33GW, and suggests the country is on its way to hitting a full-year target of 17.8GW.

China installs 5GW of solar capacity in Q1 - ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL) | Seeking Alpha




RE: China - admin - 04-23-2015

It has been a near unshakeable axiom that China’s economy is on a pre-determined flight path to overtake the US and quite quickly become the world’s biggest economy. But China’s rapid nominal compression combined with the end of RMB appreciation vs. the USD and the solid c.4% nominal GDP growth in the US economy mean that, for the first time in a decade, China’s catch up with the US has stalled.

China’s stalled catchup? | FT Alphaville

When struggling companies could no longer pay the bills, a white knight of one variety or another would always appear. Typically it was the local government, riding in to offer last-minute loans that would keep moribund businesses going. But those days appear to be over. Already this week, property developer Kaisa, and state-owned Baoding Tianwei Group, a power transformer manufacturer, have failed to make payments to creditors. No bailouts have materialized.

Defaults are the best medicine for China - Apr. 22, 2015

"What you got is a mercantilist export-driven model for China coupled with a Keynesian-on-steroids stimulus that occurs at the municipal level by building all sorts of public infrastructure that requires stealing land from farmers," the University of California, Irvine economics professor told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Wednesday.

Don't invest in 'unsustainable' China: Professor

China connected 5.04GW of solar capacity (nearly equal to France's) in Q1, the National Energy Administration reports. The figure brings China's cumulative installations to 33GW, and suggests the country is on its way to hitting a full-year target of 17.8GW.

China installs 5GW of solar capacity in Q1 - ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL) | Seeking Alpha




RE: China - admin - 04-25-2015

China faces competing mandates. On the one hand, the country needs to deleverage as it’s currently trapped beneath some $28 trillion in debt, but on the other hand, supporting the economy at a time when pressure from a strong dollar and a move towards a service-based economy (not to mention an industrial production-sapping war on pollution) are hampering economic growth means keeping liquidity flowing.

China's "Animal Spirits" May Call For "Draconian" Measures To Curb Rally, UBS Says | Zero Hedge

As UBS Group AG strategist Lu Wenjie sees it, policy makers may add to existing interventions as soon as later this year. The Shanghai Composite Index’s 121 percent surge over the past 15 months isn’t justified by earnings prospects in an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2009, according to Lu.

As China Stocks Outrun the 2007 Bubble, UBS Braces for Clampdown - Bloomberg Business

Chinese banks face a spike in bad loans amid slowing economic growth, PwC warns in a new report. "There are a variety of indications that credit risk exposure is accelerating," said PwC China Banking and Capital Markets leader Jimmy Leung in a press release published on Thursday.

China bad debt spikes by more than a third

Here’s another Chinese puzzle. Economic growth, while slowing, is still 7 percent and the stock market is on a tear. Yet money is leaving the country.

If China’s Seeing Capital Outflows Now, What Happens in Crisis? - Bloomberg Business

China’s securities regulator started a campaign to crack down on stock-market manipulation and insider trading, the latest effort to reduce risks as an equities boom lures a record number of novice investors.

China Pledges Crackdown on Stock Manipulation as Market Soars - Bloomberg Business




RE: China - admin - 04-25-2015

The true cost of the debt that China’s real estate developers peddled to eager international investors during a five-year property boom is now becoming clear. Having found themselves shut out of local bond and loan markets seven years ago, a band of developers began looking elsewhere for funds. First an initial public offering, and then a dollar bond sale. It became a well-trodden path. By 2010, a core group of four -- Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Renhe Commercial Holdings Co., Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. -- raised a total of $5.6 billion. On Monday, Kaisa buckled under $10.5 billion of debt and defaulted.

We're Just Learning the True Cost of China's Debt - Bloomberg Business




RE: China - admin - 04-29-2015

Reports this morning that the People's Bank of China is considering expanding its Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) facility to allow it to accept local government debt may be very significant.

Why You Should Pay Attention to China's New Monetary Policy Tool - Bloomberg Business

WITH China’s central bank injecting cash in the financial system to support growth, commentators have been quick to dub it the start of Chinese-style quantitative easing. Analogies can be useful for explaining complex financial matters, but in this instance the comparison is more misleading than helpful. “QE” is a poor description of the way Chinese monetary policy works. It also overstates the degree of easing the central bank is undertaking.

China's monetary policy: The flawed analogy of Chinese QE | The Economist




RE: China - admin - 05-04-2015

The cheap, young labor and strategic location of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are set to draw increasing numbers of manufacturers to Southeast Asia, which will eventually displace China for the title of "world's factory.''

China Is Set to Lose Manufacturing Crown - Bloomberg Business

China connected 5.04 gigawatts of solar capacity to grids in the three months ended March 31, the National Energy Administration said in a statement on Monday. The Asian nation now has a total 33 gigawatts of solar-power supply. “Construction of most additions in the first quarter began last year after securing local approvals,” said Nick Duan, a Beijing-based analyst from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. In China, developers must start construction within a year after approvals are given and validated.

China Adds Solar Power the Size of France in First Quarter - Bloomberg Business