Per the analyst reports the problem with Interoil's stock price is lack of certainty . They go on to say the question Is how many T's and when for the check arrival . If Oil Search has it right and they are a partner in Papua LNG thus should have it right what happens to the stock price with payment received 2nd quarter 2016.

If 10 T's plus is the best estimate of PET and Hession then that's $2 Billion for us or $40 cash per Interoil share . Where would the stock trade with an additional $40 per share in cash and certainty of enough gas for a 2 train LNG plant . ???????

Curious to know what others think and why .   Then I will provide my guess.

'jft310' pid='63439' datel Wrote:

Per the analyst reports the problem with Interoil's stock price is lack of certainty . They go on to say the question Is how many T's and when for the check arrival . If Oil Search has it right and they are a partner in Papua LNG thus should have it right what happens to the stock price with payment received 2nd quarter 2016.

If 10 T's plus is the best estimate of PET and Hession then that's $2 Billion for us or $40 cash per Interoil share . Where would the stock trade with an additional $40 per share in cash and certainty of enough gas for a 2 train LNG plant . ???????

Curious to know what others think and why .   Then I will provide my guess.

$41, but don't go by me, I'm an optimist.

'jft310' pid='63439' datel Wrote:

Per the analyst reports the problem with Interoil's stock price is lack of certainty . They go on to say the question Is how many T's and when for the check arrival . If Oil Search has it right and they are a partner in Papua LNG thus should have it right what happens to the stock price with payment received 2nd quarter 2016.

If 10 T's plus is the best estimate of PET and Hession then that's $2 Billion for us or $40 cash per Interoil share . Where would the stock trade with an additional $40 per share in cash and certainty of enough gas for a 2 train LNG plant . ???????

Curious to know what others think and why .   Then I will provide my guess.

Curious to know why you would provide OilSearch timeline but not OilSearch reserve expectations. Since they are a "partner" and "should have it right".

Reality is we don't know what the results will show. I would stick with what management has told us, in showing enough for two trains. I assume at 3.5 mbta each.

Everything else is just optimistic outlook in which we've been burned many many many times over to even bring up by now.

-CL

'jft310' pid='63439' datel Wrote:

Per the analyst reports the problem with Interoil's stock price is lack of certainty . They go on to say the question Is how many T's and when for the check arrival . If Oil Search has it right and they are a partner in Papua LNG thus should have it right what happens to the stock price with payment received 2nd quarter 2016.

If 10 T's plus is the best estimate of PET and Hession then that's $2 Billion for us or $40 cash per Interoil share . Where would the stock trade with an additional $40 per share in cash and certainty of enough gas for a 2 train LNG plant . ???????

Curious to know what others think and why .   Then I will provide my guess.

Jft - It will be interesting to see your guess . If the PEs and geologist on Total's staff are only half as smart  as I believe them to be, it is difficult for me to imagine that Total (with a payout of 2 billion next year) would not strongly consider a buy-out of IOC . My thinking may be flawed, but at this point in the game that juust seems logical .......(unless Total wants another SM to do the buying and thus become their partner ?? ). Hmm.

The stock today is trading if there is no extra payment or even any LNG plant revenue . A number at PET's estimate on the low side 10 T's means a $2 Billion cash payment and enough gas for a 2 train plant . None of the analyst estimates use 10 T's in their target work . The stock should trade in the $90's . Oil Search has issues as to size . Oil Search internal estimates they said were 3.5 T 's but paid out cash on based 7 T's . Therefore their size estimates are suspect . Once they admit the right size they must show where the cash is coming from. The GCA P-90 number was 5.3 T's and Oil Search again used that number . Again more bogus info because they must pay on the P-50 number . Doesn't matter what the P-90 number might be ever. Today they admit the additional amount per MCF when the estimate comes in higher . First time they reveal that possibility. They do admit the results are coming in higher than their expectations which in reality was 7 T's based on their payment size . Oil Search has no reason to distort the timing . A large buyin at 77 cents in fact makes them look smart . Total will end up paying more . Offers seem inevitable . But like Oil Search the government has a strong voice .