Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - Palm - 10-20-2015
Interesting story and perspective of the situation in which IOC and OSH sit.
Having spent much of last year living at commercial, and occasionally quite personal, loggerheads, the folk at Oil Search and emerging PNG gas exotic InterOil quite suddenly found that their once very separate interests have now firmly aligned.
The lens of this new intersection is, of course, Woodside Petroleum. Australia's pioneer in liquid natural gas has set its sights on becoming a regional power in the seaborne gas trade and that means it is seeking, rather belatedly, to acquire a beachhead in the coming LNG powerhouse that is Papua New Guinea.
This interest is a bit of a surprise only because it had long been held that Woodside was not up for the risk implied by massive, long investments in a politically volatile nation that has often struggled with the concept of sovereign risk.
That shibboleth was cast aside last month with Woodside's all-scrip $11.6 billion bid for Oil Search. Woodside's pitch was dismissed even before Woodside chairman Michael Chaney and his chief executive Peter Coleman got to deliver it to the target's board.
But there is thoughtful speculation here and the US that the New York listed InterOil might offer a cheaper and more easily secured pathway into PNG's big gas fields. There is speculation too that Woodside is involved in the great Santos fire sale and that the West Australian's very particular interest is a 13.5 per cent stake in the PNG LNG project that motivated Coleman's interest in Oil Search.
That other options exist could well have informed the calm that saw Coleman make it clear to Oil Search that he has little interest in increasing the offer spurned.
This appears to be of little concern to Oil Search. On Tuesday its cannily robust chief executive, Peter Botten, took the opportunity of a quarterly production report to remind his owners that the Woodside approach was "highly opportunistic, grossly undervalued the company and diluted the growth profile available to Oil Search shareholders".
"In addition, the Board saw very few synergies given there is no asset overlap (with Woodside)," Botten advised. "Oil Search is in a robust financial position and has access to competitive priced project finance for its LNG growth opportunities, which are operated by highly regarded global majors, ExxonMobil and Total."
And here is where the two streams of our PNG gas story merge.
The Exxon-owned PNG LNG project is fed by a suite of gas discoveries made by Oil Search. Oil Search retains a 29 per cent stake in that project and boasts interests of varying degrees in the gas projects that support it.
French major Total is leading a second LNG project in PNG. It will be fed from gas fields discovered by InterOil. It is an Alaskan incorporated, New York listed, Singapore-based explorer that was fathered by a Texan named Phil Mulacek. He paid $US2 million for a mothballed oil refinery in Alaska back in the early 1990s and then shipped it to Port Moresby where he rebuilt it and opened a chain of petrol stations. Then on hearing there was gas in them thar hills, Mulacek acquired some exploration territory and took a converted minerals drill up there to almost immediately identify the Elk-Antelope gas discovery.
Mulacek and InterOil parted ways early in 2013 with former Woodside executive Michael Hession getting the gig. Hession is convinced Elk-Antelope is the biggest find anywhere in our region for 25 years. By year's end Total was also convinced. It beat out a very grumpy Exxon to be named as InterOil's operating partner in the increasing prospective gas fields.
Exxon had generally been considered the natural partner for InterOil because PNG LNG needed a fair bit more gas to feed the third train that has always been viewed as the cream on the pie for the economics the project. But Hession and Total had other ideas. And so Papua LNG was born.
To Hession's great irritation, in February last year Botten inserted Oil Search into InterOil's future by buying out minority owners in the Elk-Antelope permits. Botten spent $900 million picking up 22 per cent of the fields. Botten then added fuel to the fire in Hession's belly by challenging the Total sale process on the basis that it ignored pre-emptive rights that he had just acquired.
The Total deal survived international arbitration and it paid $US401 million ($551 million) for a 40 per cent stake in the project. That deal embedded a series of milestone payments on certification of the project's gas reserves. Given recent progress of the appraisal program, which has indicated that the resource is bigger and likely to be more productive than previously thought, InterOil is on track for an additional $US1.5 billion of payments from Total. That is the good news.
The worrying reality for InterOil is that the upside of the Total payments sits in uncomfortable alignment with market capitalisation. The oil shock has been indiscriminate in discounting risk. InterOil's share price has more than halved since the heady days of the auction that introduced Total. Today it is valued at about $US1.9 billion ($2.6 billion). And, even after adding a reasonable takeover premium, InterOil finds itself comfortably within the $5 billion range of opportunism that Coleman has consistently defined for Woodside.
Woodside's move on Oil Search has loosed the spectre of industry consolidation on the PNG gas industry. In the land of very big oil, both Oil Search and InterOil stand relative minnows. Having accentuated the positive, both now need to certify the Elk-Antelope resource as fast as technology can make positive.
To that end, ahead of Botten's spiky quarterly, InterOil confirmed it would deliver a second rig to the JV to bring forward the Antelope 6 appraisal well. The race is on."
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - Martinistocks - 10-20-2015
So to Woodside IOC is worth up to 5 billion or $100 per share maximum. This guy lays out a pretty great story without all the government and other soap opera stuff that has plaqued the company. Perhaps others here can elaborate why Woodside would not approach before certification. Also, the article does not mention the future value of the gas through the JV facility. What I have gotten out of our discussions is the present value of that opportunity does not get mixed into the purchase price if a sale was to be had today by Woodside. Why not? Maybe because Total could pull the plug? I would think there is some value on top of the gas in the ground that should get added into any offer to IOC. Oh yes and Raptor etc. But, if the race is on Hession better get to certification in the next 6-8 months.
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - jft310 - 10-20-2015
Interoil at the AGM stated they think their property may hold 52 T's . If the BOD believes those numbers no one will buy Interoil cheap . With 10 T's certified we should trade near $100 per share US . The stock price problem lies in the how much gas do you certify question and answer game . With certification we have closure on how much . Currently we trade at 5 T's with zero value for an LNG plant . This to changes . Total has been marketing our gas for 6 weeks now .
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - Getitrt2 - 10-21-2015
InterOil, per Stevens:
"Alaskan incorporated".
"Then on hearing there was gas in them thar hills, Mulacek acquired some exploration territory and took a converted minerals drill up there to almost immediately identify the Elk-Antelope gas discovery."
A good article, but the author appears to have little knowledge and understanding of the long, winding, skeptical, risk-laden, obstacle/attack/failure-filled, extremely difficult, and almost-thwarted road and history of InterOil and its shareholders, as it finally appears to have massive success within reach in an environment of collapsed energy prices and gross market under valuation.
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - CAC - 10-21-2015
So to Woodside IOC is worth up to 5 billion or $100 per share maximum. This guy lays out a pretty great story without all the government and other soap opera stuff that has plaqued the company. Perhaps others here can elaborate why Woodside would not approach before certification.
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One reason might be the uncertainty as to what IOC will be paid by TOT. That "asset" isn't known right now. Even if Woodside thinks it knows about how much gas is in the ground at E/A (which it likely does since it must have put a number on OSH's interest in E/A as part of that bid), that's not exactly the same thing as knowing what TOT will end up paying IOC for it. If Woodside shares my concern that at least one of the appraisers may "come in low", then they may want to wait and see how that plays out. It could be a difference of hundreds of millions of dollars.
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - Martinistocks - 10-21-2015
Thanks for that good explanation CAC.
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - jft310 - 10-21-2015
The SPA lays out the names of the five reservoir engineers that can be chosen between .
Look at Oil Search and PAC for possible name selection . The most conservative in the industry is GCA chosen by Oil Search who has already certified E/A at 7 T's , P-50 before the last two wells and before connectivity and before flow testing. Their number must go up somewhere . PAC chose Netherland Sewell who also had a pre drill estimate on E/A of 15 T's . Many of the required wells have been drilled now , not all and are at the upper end of expectation per Oil Search.
To be conservative use 10 T's at E/A and that's the number given out at the NYC event about a month ago by Hession . It's also PET's estimate . That conservative number gets Interoil a $2 Billion check .
It will be interesting to see which of the 5 engineers Total and Interoil chose and even more interesting to see the actual number .
First T number will be Interoil's GLJ number for year end 15 in mid Feb 2016 required by the regulators .
Second T number will be second quarter of 2016 the Oil Search/PAC number .
Third T number if used/needed will be who ever Total and Interoil chose . Date mid 2016 .
The Oil Search/PAC number will be quite impactive to the price per share . Oil Search internal estimate was 3.5 T's totally discredited by GCA's number but referenced in analyst reports . A huh moment !!!
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - Getitrt2 - 10-21-2015
If GLJ's estimates go up significantly, they could have an impact on the stock, but it is obviously uncertain how much additional information they will have.
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - CAC - 10-22-2015
[quote='CAC' pid='63891' dateline='1445369931']
So to Woodside IOC is worth up to 5 billion or $100 per share maximum. This guy lays out a pretty great story without all the government and other soap opera stuff that has plaqued the company. Perhaps others here can elaborate why Woodside would not approach before certification.
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One reason might be the uncertainty as to what IOC will be paid by TOT. That "asset" isn't known right now. Even if Woodside thinks it knows about how much gas is in the ground at E/A (which it likely does since it must have put a number on OSH's interest in E/A as part of that bid), that's not exactly the same thing as knowing what TOT will end up paying IOC for it. If Woodside shares my concern that at least one of the appraisers may "come in low", then they may want to wait and see how that plays out. It could be a difference of hundreds of millions of dollars.
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The one exception to this might be TOT...which could make an offer before certification since they wouldn't care what their post-cert payments would be (they'd be making them to themselves). In fact, it might be a good strategy by TOT to make an offer before certification (knowing that this uncertainty exists for other competitive bidders until then).
RE: Woodside makes friends of old foes OSH and IOC - jft310 - 10-22-2015
Fact - Did OSH reject the lowball offer of Woodside ????No reason to think the Interoil BOD would accept a low ball offer . Not to say we will not get offers .
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