The most mind boggling charts in the AGM presentation http://www.interoil.com/presentation/201...inal-1.pdf are found on charts 6-8 but you will have to study them carefully to realize the full impact. (Fooled you didn’t I? Nothing technical.)
I will not quarrel with the accuracy of these charts, so taking them to be accurate let’s consider the implications.
Looking at chart 6, the inner circle represents the middle class population in 2009 and the outer circle represents the middle class population in 2030. (the legend is incorrect) Compare the growth in Asia to the rest of the world. WOW! So where does most of this growth have to take place? Where do most of the people live that have not already achieved “middle class” status? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cou...population That would be China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea and a few others. (Some will no doubt be held back by their Government such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, North Korea etc) Many have already achieved “middle class” status such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and a few others. So this massive increase in middle class population has to occur in the top three, China, India and Indonesia. If this actually happens it will change the world we live in. These people will not only consume more energy (LNG) but they will increase their consumption of everything else, food, cars, houses, roads, etc. The world economy will be changed.
Now, let’s look at chart 7. This is a little difficult to grasp until you look at it closely. What the chart is showing you is the growth of Energy Demand in Asia. At the top they show the 20 year growth period for Japan (1965 -1984) and South Korea (1980-1999). These countries have already experienced the explosive per capita demand for energy and have achieved “middle class” status. At the bottom of the chart they show per capita Energy Demand for China, India and Indonesia for the 11 year period from 1999-2010. So if 2.75 BILLION people in China, India and Indonesia achieve middle class status in the next 10 years with a similar increase in per capita Energy Demand as was seen in Japan and South Korea, we can expect an unbelievable increase in Energy Demand which, of course, will include LNG. Please note that the number of people involved in China, India and Indonesia is far greater than Japan and South Korea so the overall Energy Demand for China, India and Indonesia will be far greater than the growth that was seen for Japan and South Korea.
Now for chart 8. This chart shows the Asian LNG demand in metric tons per annum (MTPA). The orange line at the top represents the Asian LNG demand and you will note that the demand exceeds the forecasted supply from now through 2017. So this is the “window of opportunity” for IOC to enter the market. I would think as long as the demand exceeds the supply the price will remain high.
Best of luck to all!
I will not quarrel with the accuracy of these charts, so taking them to be accurate let’s consider the implications.
Looking at chart 6, the inner circle represents the middle class population in 2009 and the outer circle represents the middle class population in 2030. (the legend is incorrect) Compare the growth in Asia to the rest of the world. WOW! So where does most of this growth have to take place? Where do most of the people live that have not already achieved “middle class” status? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cou...population That would be China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea and a few others. (Some will no doubt be held back by their Government such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, North Korea etc) Many have already achieved “middle class” status such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and a few others. So this massive increase in middle class population has to occur in the top three, China, India and Indonesia. If this actually happens it will change the world we live in. These people will not only consume more energy (LNG) but they will increase their consumption of everything else, food, cars, houses, roads, etc. The world economy will be changed.
Now, let’s look at chart 7. This is a little difficult to grasp until you look at it closely. What the chart is showing you is the growth of Energy Demand in Asia. At the top they show the 20 year growth period for Japan (1965 -1984) and South Korea (1980-1999). These countries have already experienced the explosive per capita demand for energy and have achieved “middle class” status. At the bottom of the chart they show per capita Energy Demand for China, India and Indonesia for the 11 year period from 1999-2010. So if 2.75 BILLION people in China, India and Indonesia achieve middle class status in the next 10 years with a similar increase in per capita Energy Demand as was seen in Japan and South Korea, we can expect an unbelievable increase in Energy Demand which, of course, will include LNG. Please note that the number of people involved in China, India and Indonesia is far greater than Japan and South Korea so the overall Energy Demand for China, India and Indonesia will be far greater than the growth that was seen for Japan and South Korea.
Now for chart 8. This chart shows the Asian LNG demand in metric tons per annum (MTPA). The orange line at the top represents the Asian LNG demand and you will note that the demand exceeds the forecasted supply from now through 2017. So this is the “window of opportunity” for IOC to enter the market. I would think as long as the demand exceeds the supply the price will remain high.
Best of luck to all!
