If IOC shareholders reject the share deal, Botten has a serious problem. Ever since gas prices went down in 2015, Osh has not enough cash flow to finance the second tranche of the Calio deal and not to mention the equity investment in the Papua LNG JV. So, he has to give up E/A and sell it to Total at a huge discount. He needed the IOC deal to hide this loss in 2016. Last year he reported big losses as well because of drilling deceptions, so his reputation is at stake and the shareprice will go further down.
As a chess player I would say this is a better moment to start negotiations with OSH. IOC will fill its pockets with a big license payment in the meantime. Of course, there are plenty synergies to realize. OSH can give up the exploration in the mountains. We can share overhead etc.
