Where's STPIOC?

[sfiaes]

You were always the voice of reason.

Don't hear much from you these days.

Penny for your thoughts.

TIA

[admin]

You were always the voice of reason.

Don't hear much from you these days.

Penny for your thoughts.

TIA

Thanks for worrying, but reports of my disappearance are greatly exaggerated. I feel I've got little to add at present in the discussion. The fact is that we have a great resource (and probably even a much greater exploration potential), there isn't any reasonable argument why it wouldn't generate a whole lot of interest, given the recent resurgence of interest in the Gulf as exploration area (which is another demonstration the poverty of the short "argument", as they argued it has been "heavily explored" and given the interest from PRE in the much less understood Triceratops.

I feel the govt. is now largely on our side, which is a great relief, and we'll have to see what Ant3 brings but early indication show that any residual reason for fearing some compartmentalization in E/A are not based on anything. They found the pay zone considerably higher than were expected, which is good news. And mind you, even that great Indonesian field Arun has some compartmentalization.

I'm not privy to all the ins and outs of the negotiations (few are), so I simply wait, and I'm pretty sure that a deal wil come, "quite suddenly and without warning." (my favorite quote from Steven Frears' "the queen"

I simply don't see any even half convincing reason why it shouldn't.

I'm reading "The Guru Investor" by John P. Reese at the moment. It says that stocks can fluctuate 40-50% without any fundamental reason, it doesn't really mean much. Actually, the (very few) investors that consistently beat the market pounce on opportunities like this.

Just patience, that's all. IOC is worth a great deal more than the, what, $55 or so it trades for. There isn't a half credible argument to argue otherwise. Most if not all of the big institutional investors haven't bailed.

[TxPm]

Admin,
These days it seems like the more complex an investment portfolio the better that portfolio is expected to due when in reality the best money managers who have proven themselves over multiple market cycles usually apply a very simple investment thesis and stick to that thesis through thick and thin. I've attached a great piece on Warren Buffett & how he has been able to achieve the returns he has. The paper is a bit technical but comes up with some interesting conclusions and I believe validates your point that ppl who beat the market make money in times like these.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/pdf/Buff...dersen.pdf

[admin]

Admin, These days it seems like the more complex an investment portfolio the better that portfolio is expected to due when in reality the best money managers who have proven themselves over multiple market cycles usually apply a very simple investment thesis and stick to that thesis through thick and thin. I've attached a great piece on Warren Buffett & how he has been able to achieve the returns he has. The paper is a bit technical but comes up with some interesting conclusions and I believe validates your point that ppl who beat the market make money in times like these. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/pdf/Buff...dersen.pdf

Thanks for that Buffet piece. Reading through Reece, it's really drawn upon me how difficult it is to beat the market and how much noise stock prices contain. I simply focus on the fundamentals, like all the guru's described in that book, and cut out the noise (the short-term stock price, the bostonkenmore's or whatever the scam artist of the day is called..). The fundamentals tell me that E/A is a great resource at the doorstep of Asia and that there isn't even a half credible argument out there saying otherwise.

[jft310]

If IOC only ends up at a mere $200 a share ,add in all your costs and every share will have a nice return and in aggregate will have beaten the market over the same start and finish date average. The best add during uncertainty. Are you adding??

[admin]

It's a no brainer, JFT. This company is worth way more than $0.4/mcf for just the T count at E/A
One should also keep in mind that most of a stock rises happen in a small minority of days. This one will take off suddenly, and without warning.