The shorts are positioned at $78

[jft310]

can you tell. A bit of news and we blow through $78  its a bit of a lid,.

Was it better to buy calls yesterday or today.??? We added yesterday. Buy the fear works again. Whens the next fear after the deal and the sellers come in?? At some point buying

calls after the deal will make sense.  Selling premium makes sense today.

[jft310]

optionstrad

Couple things to remember
.

First the last few days selling oil was getting slmmed as were some other small explorers. So I put not much of an emphasis on the drop frpm 74-68.

Second, I have heard from a hedge or 2 that lots of money is ready and waiting for the announcement to buy in. retail will sell the news, insitutions will be buying. Cap and Wells and Chandler did NOT but into a high risk story to sell on a $20 pop .They are in this for the long haul. They believe IOC is worth more than OSH...so at least $200 per share.

Third If Its Shell, they will pay over $1.50 per mcf as IOC has had $1.50 in hand for several months.

Fourth, the announcement will be a big one. There will be more SD's on T2 as well , with additional cash upfront. But IOC want to keep a big slug of T2, they feel it has as much as EA.

We should shoot well over $125 on firm news. IOC is taking its time beacuase it wants all t's crossed and i's dotted, expect a rapid FID too. Mgmt figured out that they need 1) Iron clad support of Govt. PA for new scheme 2) completed social mapping 3) No mou's etc etc. A firm deal. The tighter the deal the higher the PPS goes. Smart move by mgmt to use extra time and get a bash proof deal
er8 from yahoo

[ellerslick]

optionstrad Couple things to remember . First the last few days selling oil was getting slmmed as were some other small explorers. So I put not much of an emphasis on the drop frpm 74-68. Second, I have heard from a hedge or 2 that lots of money is ready and waiting for the announcement to buy in. retail will sell the news, insitutions will be buying. Cap and Wells and Chandler did NOT but into a high risk story to sell on a $20 pop .They are in this for the long haul. They believe IOC is worth more than OSH...so at least $200 per share. Third If Its Shell, they will pay over $1.50 per mcf as IOC has had $1.50 in hand for several months. Fourth, the announcement will be a big one. There will be more SD's on T2 as well , with additional cash upfront. But IOC want to keep a big slug of T2, they feel it has as much as EA. We should shoot well over $125 on firm news. IOC is taking its time beacuase it wants all t's crossed and i's dotted, expect a rapid FID too. Mgmt figured out that they need 1) Iron clad support of Govt. PA for new scheme 2) completed social mapping 3) No mou's etc etc. A firm deal. The tighter the deal the higher the PPS goes. Smart move by mgmt to use extra time and get a bash proof deal er8 from yahoo

$1.50 in hand for months- that is new

More sell downs on T2-that is new

Where is all this new info coming from?

[jft310]

This was found on yahoo and seems to make sense. But again its yahoo. If the Big longs knew all of this it explains why they were adding as the stock dropped in the fourth quarter. As funds become available we add with a large dip. We added yesterday as IOC approached the 200 day moving average. Low on cash so bought May calls. If the Biggest IOC owners are adding then why shouldn't a smaller fish add also. They have little doubt this happens based on watching the money trail. Doesn't require inside info but does require pattern recognition. The pattern the Bigs aren't trading they bought the fourth quarter dip. Good enough for us.Time to add. Based on the 37% stock rise in the first quarter the Bigs were adding again. Thats it buy more , sold a few losers to get the cash to add more.

[jft310]

same yshoo thread


northerntrader•2 hours 22 minutes agoFlag

4users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0
Reply
.

Very well said ot008. No fluff, no wild speculation. Just fact and common sense joining of the dots.

$1.50/mcf equates to around $180/share iirc (just for E/A), so your $125 target is actually quite achievable.
Add in any value attributable to B/T and unexplored lands.
Add into that the short covering (or rolling forward for big losses) that will occur and we have a lot to look forward to. Can you say "margin call"?

It will be difficult for IOC to keep tight-lipped at Monday's New York event.