Ports N Highways

[Tree]

Kikori is not well suited to serve "the pipeline Elk-Interoil project". That would be too far west and no roads. Interoil and Governor Havila Kavo have talked about a port near Kerema in the Gulf Province where the Interoil Elk/Antelope pipeline will come to the coast and possibly enter the PNGLNG offshore pipeline.

hey pet - do you think its possible that  XOM can plan to pipe E/A gas west to tie into their PNG LNG infrastructure and CSP?  That would explain Kavos antics if his province is to receive minimal development if this is  xom's proposal. Am traveling and haven't looked at maps. That's your job!

Tree - In the transport of gas the main considerations are pipe size, pipe length and pressure. The distance to the Exxon pipeline to the west is much further than the distance to the coast near Kerema. Exxon would not be interested in overloading a much longer portion of their pipeline. The most efficient way to transport the gas would be to follow the route planned by IOC. The terrain on the IOC route is much better with mostly high ground and a minimum of valleys and rivers (2).  Kikori appears to be a swampy area. We would not want to build a plant or pipelines in that area.

The CSP will be in the Antelope Field. They would never consider laying a pipeline to the Exxon CSP in the highlands. Of course we will have to have a way of handling the liquids even if the gas goes to the Exxon LNG plant, so we will still need the condensate pipeline to the coast and some way of loading the condensate onto barges or ships at the coast. We may need something like the Oil Search Kumul Offshore Oil Terminal which I think was built by Chevron.

 If we end up with a Gulf LNG Plant the plant site and pipeline routes may look very similar to the IOC plan. It may take a lot of dredging to build a port and ship channel with enough depth to handle LNG tankers near shore. If the Government decided to build a port at the proposed LNG plant site that would be a big step forward to shipping the LNG and liquids. Of course if the LNG Plant is on shore the ships will have to be loaded near shore i.e. we could not pipe the LNG to an offshore terminal in deep water like we do oil or condensate.

Thanks for response Pet.  Great project here map in hi-def on Dec. 2012 NGE slide #4 here:

http://www.ngenergy.com.au/announcements/technical-presentation-to-the-png-mining-and-petroleum-investment-conference?A=SearchResult&SearchID=25353795&ObjectID=52892&ObjectType=7

It shows, as dinosaur bird flies, PNG LNG pipeline is about 120 km from E/A and about 220km from the subsea tie in off Kerema.  The licenses between E/A and PNG LNG pipeline is owned by LNG Energy.  'If'  XOM has no interest in a Gulf LNG project and has no intertest in providing support infrastructure to a Gulf LNG project perhaps it's cleaner for XOM to buy the 4.6T or all of PRL15, build their own CSP and ship the gas to the West 120 km and avoid all the Kerema development proposals.  This could sure explain how Kavo is bent out of shape.  IOC moving to Wahoo opens the door for PRL 236 development and that is close to napnap site where a large LNG plant really does make most sense for IOC.

Perhaps one of you guys can chat at Wayne or someone if XOM is or is not intending to run the IOC pipeline route to Kerema.   If not, XOM has 3-4 yrs. to get organized to run West as they won't need E/A gas until then.

Perhaps the rub on Kavo could well be XOM will use IOC's pipeline route and will provide no development at Gulf beyond basic pipeline support and CSP sized for their PNG LNG plans.  XOM may well have a total PNG investment risk they will tollerate and an expanded PNG LNG with E/A gas will meet it.  Gulf may well be on the way yo losing an LNG plant altogether if Wahoo  and 236 meet expectation.

[petrengr1]

Kikori is not well suited to serve "the pipeline Elk-Interoil project". That would be too far west and no roads. Interoil and Governor Havila Kavo have talked about a port near Kerema in the Gulf Province where the Interoil Elk/Antelope pipeline will come to the coast and possibly enter the PNGLNG offshore pipeline.

hey pet - do you think its possible that  XOM can plan to pipe E/A gas west to tie into their PNG LNG infrastructure and CSP?  That would explain Kavos antics if his province is to receive minimal development if this is  xom's proposal. Am traveling and haven't looked at maps. That's your job!

Tree - In the transport of gas the main considerations are pipe size, pipe length and pressure. The distance to the Exxon pipeline to the west is much further than the distance to the coast near Kerema. Exxon would not be interested in overloading a much longer portion of their pipeline. The most efficient way to transport the gas would be to follow the route planned by IOC. The terrain on the IOC route is much better with mostly high ground and a minimum of valleys and rivers (2).  Kikori appears to be a swampy area. We would not want to build a plant or pipelines in that area.

The CSP will be in the Antelope Field. They would never consider laying a pipeline to the Exxon CSP in the highlands. Of course we will have to have a way of handling the liquids even if the gas goes to the Exxon LNG plant, so we will still need the condensate pipeline to the coast and some way of loading the condensate onto barges or ships at the coast. We may need something like the Oil Search Kumul Offshore Oil Terminal which I think was built by Chevron.

 If we end up with a Gulf LNG Plant the plant site and pipeline routes may look very similar to the IOC plan. It may take a lot of dredging to build a port and ship channel with enough depth to handle LNG tankers near shore. If the Government decided to build a port at the proposed LNG plant site that would be a big step forward to shipping the LNG and liquids. Of course if the LNG Plant is on shore the ships will have to be loaded near shore i.e. we could not pipe the LNG to an offshore terminal in deep water like we do oil or condensate.

Thanks for response Pet.  Great project here map in hi-def on Dec. 2012 NGE slide #4 here:

http://www.ngenergy.com.au/announcements/technical-presentation-to-the-png-mining-and-petroleum-investment-conference?A=SearchResult&SearchID=25353795&ObjectID=52892&ObjectType=7

It shows, as dinosaur bird flies, PNG LNG pipeline is about 120 km from E/A and about 220km from the subsea tie in off Kerema.  The licenses between E/A and PNG LNG pipeline is owned by LNG Energy.  'If'  XOM has no interest in a Gulf LNG project and has no intertest in providing support infrastructure to a Gulf LNG project perhaps it's cleaner for XOM to buy the 4.6T or all of PRL15, build their own CSP and ship the gas to the West 120 km and avoid all the Kerema development proposals.  This could sure explain how Kavo is bent out of shape.  IOC moving to Wahoo opens the door for PRL 236 development and that is close to napnap site where a large LNG plant really does make most sense for IOC.

Perhaps one of you guys can chat at Wayne or someone if XOM is or is not intending to run the IOC pipeline route to Kerema.   If not, XOM has 3-4 yrs. to get organized to run West as they won't need E/A gas until then.

Perhaps the rub on Kavo could well be XOM will use IOC's pipeline route and will provide no development at Gulf beyond basic pipeline support and CSP sized for their PNG LNG plans.  XOM may well have a total PNG investment risk they will tollerate and an expanded PNG LNG with E/A gas will meet it.  Gulf may well be on the way yo losing an LNG plant altogether if Wahoo  and 236 meet expectation.

The only reason for Exxon to pipe the gas to the west would be if there is another LNG Plant in that direction. Of course there is not, so far. I believe if we successfully complete an agreement with Exxon they will want to concentrate the gas at their existing LNG plant near Port Moresby. The best and shortest route to accomplish that is to use the planned IOC route to the tee Exxon put in their offshore pipeline near Kerema.

The CSP modules must be pretty heavy. Note that Exxon built a $1 billion+ airport in the highlands so they can bring in heavy equipment using the Russian’s world’s largest cargo transport aircraft. Of course they don’t have rivers and roads like we do for bringing in equipment to Elk/Antelope. I just mention this to indicate that it appears to me we will need river and land transport to bring in this equipment “wherever” a CSP is built. For example we may need a road to Triceratops before we build a CSP there. The road can be the same as the pipeline right-of-way so it will have to be built anyway.  I do not know what the maximum weight of the largest pieces is, so it may be possible to transport this equipment using the Russian’s heavy lift helicopter, Mi-26, which can lift up to  44,000 lb loads. If they weigh more than that we will need a road. So the equipment can be brought up river by barge to the staging areas at Herd or Hou Creek and then it will have to be transported to the site of the desired CSP by road. In the case of Wahoo the equipment can be brought up the Government road from Napa Napa.

[Palm]

My gut is that is what happens. Train 3 is gas piped from EA into the spur at Kerema. That's all been planned out, the pipeline route established and all social mapping done and approved by DPE. I would guess with Mitsui all of the logistics were pretty well figured out on the CSPs. IOC is settling up with Mitsui and part of that is that IOC owns the engineering, plans etc.

From there it's how much gets proven up and when. Talk has been that the existing pipeline is big enough for only the 3rd train (at one time there was talk that possibly a 4th train, but last I heard 3 is a no-brainer). So if only 3, a new pipeline is necessary no matter what for further expansion of PNG LNG. The deliniation of EA/PRL 15 will be part of that, but so will be other prospects in that area (IOC or not). If an LNG plant is required in Gulf, whomever is the operator will want close-by gas and Bluff location makes a lot of sense still. Then Wahoo and other prospects in 236 could be eyed for further PNG LNG expansion with a new pipeline following the road to PM/PNG LNG; less costly than a new subsea and less controversial.

Exxon won't let this opportunity slip away when they have desires to max out PNG LNG at 6 trains or so. But they better lock something up before it's too late and someone else with a desire to be the next LNG operator strikes a deal. Could be a huge strategic blunder for them.

[cybersssss]

Do you really think that Exxon can/would feel any rush? I am not familiar with how the company operated and at what speed they operate. I hope you are right. If not a deal with any other company will take longer to monetize for IOC. Shell could use FLNG but there ship will not be ready for another 5 years. Total would have to build a plant, also 5 years.

XOM knows that they are IOC's best option and IOC knows that. On the same token XOM will get quicker gas with IOC and will make more money. hmmmmm...who will budge first.

[Palm]

Well if people don't think there is big stuff going on between Exxon, Shell and others you may want to read this. Hess and Newfields Exploration are selling assets and Exxon, Shell, Talisman and others are bidding on these assets, and those of Hess are in Thailand and Indonesia. PTT is also involved as the National company. Rumors are that Hess and Newfields can each have profits of over $3 billion.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08...ian-assets