Links for week Oct 3 2016

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Amid worries that the world's economy may be stuck in low gear, there are signs that growth may be picking up speed, according to economic forecasters. No one is predicting a return to pre-recession boom times. But the headwinds that have been holding back growth seem to be easing, both in the U.S. and around the world.

Forecasters see global economy perking up

It’s hard to overstate how astonishing and rapid the decline in extreme poverty in the past couple of decades has been. In 1990, more than a third of people on Earth lived on less than $1.90 a day, adjusted for local prices (this is the line the World Bank uses as its main metric). By 2013, barely 10 percent of people did; the rate had been cut by more than two-thirds. That’s one of the biggest and fastest improvements in human well-being in the history of the planet.

In 1990, more than 60% of people in East Asia were in extreme poverty. Now only 3.5% are. - Vox

The strategist who predicted the capital concerns now enveloping Deutsche Bank has told CNBC what could happen next in a saga that has seen the bank's share price fall by over 50 percent this year. In late 2013, Paul Gambles, a managing partner at advisory firm MBMG International, said that Deutsche Bank was over-leveraged and believed Germany's banking system was one of the worst in the world. These fears reached the wider investment community this year who think Deutsche Bank'll need to raise capital after the U.S. Justice Department (DOJ) suggested it pay $14 billion to settle a number of investigations related to mortgage securities.

The man who called Deutsche’s decline has some gloomy predictions on what’ll happen next

Polls show that most ordinary Russians hold deeply illiberal views on social issues (for example, 21 per cent want to see homosexuals ‘liquidated’, and another 37 per cent advocate ‘separating them from society’ — while only 11 per cent believe homosexuality to be a ‘sexual orientation from birth, which merits the same rights as heterosexual orientation&rsquo. And historical polling data from the recently shuttered Levada research centre shows that Russian attitudes on gays, blacks, Jews, foreigners, capital punishment and the like have remained pretty unenlightened since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Revealed: Putin’s covert war on western decadence

There are risk-averse traders who never make significant money.  There are risk-seeking traders who blow up.  Then there are smart traders who take calculated risks.  They make selective bets.  Like the skilled poker player, they know when they have a good hand and they know how and when to bet that hand. But to take calculated risks, you have to know how much risk you're truly taking.  Several factors impact the risks in your trading

TraderFeed: Trading Success and Calculated Risk Taking

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"Our view is that the economy is not ready for a rate increase," said Chuck Self, chief investment officer of iSectors, a veteran of the bond market for more than 30 years. "Third-quarter GDP will be higher than previous quarters but only because of inventory and trade adjustment, and we think third-quarter earnings will be down and fourth-quarter guidance will be lowered. The economy is weak."   The S&P 500 is expected to earn $29.76 for the quarter, down from a prior outlook of $30.65, a decline of 2.9%, according to research firm FactSet. Much of that is due to lower earnings revisions in the energy sector, which has been hit by sliding oil prices. On June 30, the earnings estimate called for a growth rate of 0.3%, indicating a decline of more than 3% in just the past 90 days.   With a drag in earnings for the third quarter as well as expected downward guidance for the fourth quarter, any rate hike in December may be met with a sharp sell-off in stocks, Self said. "Assuming a rate increase in December and a call for two or more rate increases in 2017, like last year, we'll have a significant correction in stocks and bonds will be seen as a safe asset," he said.

Here Are Two Ways to Own Bond ETFs When the Fed Raises Rates - TheStreet

“At 225pc of world GDP, the global debt …is currently at an all-time high. Two-thirds, amounting to about $100 trillion, consists of liabilities of the private sector which can carry great risks when they reach excessive levels,” the IMF said in its fiscal monitor. “The sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery.”

Global debt hits all-time high of $152 trillion as IMF warns of world-wide economic stagnation

From 2011 to 2015, government spending on EpiPen increased 463%, from $86 million to $487 million, according to CMS. This table was included in their letter.

Medicaid and Medicare confirm Mylan overcharged them - Business Insider

Analysis of satellite imagery taken after a deadly attack on an aid convoy in northern Syria last month shows that it was an air strike, a UN expert says. At least 18 people were killed when lorries unloading at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent warehouse in a rebel-held town outside Aleppo came under fire. The US believes Russian warplanes bombed the convoy. Russia, which backs Syria's government, denies the charge. UN officials have said the incident could constitute a war crime. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has established an internal board of inquiry to investigate the attack, which he has denounced as "sickening, savage and apparently deliberate".

Syria conflict: Aid convoy attack was air strike, UN expert says - BBC News

When Axton Betz-Hamilton won a national award for her research on child identity theft, her mother and father were there to show how proud they were. The honor bestowed on her by the American Association of Family and Consumer Sciences in 2012 came after years of battling threatening letters and phone calls from collection agencies, and a credit score that had sunk to 308 and made even signing up for electricity problematic. Her parents’ identity had been stolen when she was a child and, at 19, she discovered that her own identity when she was 11. This person racked up $500,000 in credit card debt. What she did not know: The culprit had actually traveled with her to the ceremony, sat at her table as her name was announced and stood next to her smiling in a photograph as a proud parent. That thief was her own mother — the one person she went to for advice and consolation.

My mother stole my identity and racked up $500,000 in debt - MarketWatch

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Management made a lot of good moves and has really taken this company to the next level, Cramer said. Although shares have already rallied a lot -- up 20% this year, 30% over the past year and nearly 850% over the past five years -- they continue to move higher because of results like these.  "This is the best consumer packaged goods growth you can get" and it's hard to find, Cramer concluded.

Jim Cramer -- Constellation Brands Is Best Growth You Can Get - TheStreet

Global debt has hit a record high of $152 trillion, weighing down economic growth and adding to risks that recovery could turn into stagnation or even recession, the International Monetary Fund has warned. In a worst-case scenario the IMF also fears that a wave of populist politics across the US and Europe could send globalisation into reverse with protectionist policies hitting international trade, investment and migration, sending the world plunging into a prolonged period of stagnation.

Global debt hits all-time high of $152 trillion as IMF warns of world-wide economic stagnation

However, Sharp may have shown us a glimpse at the future of VR with a new concept display designed specifically for VR headsets. The 2.87-inch display offers a whopping a pixel density of 1,008 per inch. For reference, the pixel density of a top smartphone like the Samsung galaxy S7 is 577ppi, while the HTC Vive with a built-in display offers 447ppi. So, we’re talking about double the detail here. Sharp by name, sharp by nature. Shown off at CEATEC in Japan (via PCWatch), the concept can display 1920 x 2160 images that appears to be 4K to both eyes.

Sharp's 1000ppi display looks like the future of VR headsets

Japan's yen may have finally stopped climbing, but Citi, expecting further currency strength ahead, cut the country's equities to "underweight." "With expectations for yen strength winning the day, we do not think Japanese equities are likely to grow in appeal for investors," Naoki Iizuka, an analyst at Citi, said in a note Thursday.

Yen strength prompts Citi to cut Japan equities to underweight

The CEO of UBS, Sergio Ermotti, delivered the clearest indictment yet of Europe’s embattled banking system on Thursday — at least from an investor standpoint. The head of Switzerland’s largest bank, and among the world’s heavyweight financial institutions, said European financial institutions are suffering from a world awash in low and negative interest rates.

The CEO of Switzerland’s largest bank offers the clearest reason to shun European financials - MarketWatch

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About 7 million American men of prime working age (25 through 54) are not in the labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means they don't have a paid job and haven't been actively looking for one. This figure does not include those in jail or prison. It does include students and men staying home to take care of children or other family members -- but, as Nicholas Eberstadt estimates in his important new book, "Men Without Work," these two categories seem to account for less than 15 percent of what he calls the NILFs (for not in labor force). And the NILF share of the U.S. prime-age male population has been growing and growing.

Out of Prison, Out of Work - Bloomberg View

With all of the Federal Reserve confusion, why not just sell all your stocks and go home? Cramer said the fact remains that stocks are still the best wealth creators out there over the long run. The key, he said, is to know which stocks work in a rising interest rate environment. That's not to say there aren't times to sell. That was certainly the case in 2007, just prior to the Great Recession when there was sizable systemic risk, but it certainly isn't the case now.

Jim Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Here's How You Make Money Despite the Fed - TheStreet

The indifferent economic recovery after the global financial crisis has been a persistent theme in the Fund's regular World Economic Outlook reports. The latest report warns of the danger of a pattern of underperformance becoming entrenched. Weak growth can lead to lower investment, slower productivity growth and the erosion of what the IMF calls "human capital" - which means skills and expertise.

IMF says global economic recovery 'weak and precarious' - BBC News

For those willing to keep playing in the stock-picking arena, though, there's a fairly simple and intuitive solution. The least-loved stocks by active managers have outperformed the most-loved by 13 percentage points in 2016, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, providing investors a reason to steer clear of the herd mentality that too often permeates investor psychology. Pitting most-loved against least-loved has been a solid strategy for the past several years, but too often gets ignored in a momentum-driven market.

An easy way to win at stock-picking: Bet against the stock pickers

A startup based in Cambridge, England, called Audio Analytic, for example, has found a way to inject AI code into smart home devices such as the Amazon Echo and Nest’s smoke alarms. The software can detect the sound of a window breaking or a baby crying and notify the homeowner about the situation.

Building a House That Can Hear - Bloomberg