What are We Missing?

[Putncalls]

While I have had money parked I could have tripled it on CLR!

[Palm]

We all make our own decisions Puts. I could have quintupled it on TSLR, or when I bought APPL at $20 years ago and sold it at $80 I could have held it until $480 and multiplied it 24 times. But I didn't. And I didn't blame Steve Jobs for that or threaten to sue him because of my decisions. But instead I was happy I did well with APPL and now have a diversified portfolio which includes IOC that I've done well on without using options or margins; ever. I maybe could have done better if I did, but I've chosen not to. And if IOC tanks from here, I'll be pissed at myself for not selling at 90, 95, 100 or 106. But I had the chance to pull the trigger then and didn't. I can pull the trigger here if I think I should, but I haven't done it so far. Plenty of chances to make and lose lots on IOC. I have targets both high and low where i have and will pull the trigger; and live with what I do. That's what investing is all about; living with the choices you make and not following the herd mentality; in fact doing the opposite many times. But maybe that's just me.

[Putncalls]

I think IOC is a good value. I also think that MGMT could be more honest. That's all.

[Palm]

Fair enough Puts

[CesiumFormate]

I think IOC is a good value. I also think that MGMT could be more honest. That's all.

Put, Did you consider that management not telling us anything may actually be the most honest thing they could do right now?  I would assert that the most honest information they could share with us is nothing if they do not have a definitive deal.  Remember what happend when they announced the exclusive negotiations with Exxon?  I still have pictures of the red on the boards, and my dropped jaw.  Let them do their jobs!

CF

[Getitrt2]

I think IOC is a good value. I also think that MGMT could be more honest. That's all.

How do you think current "MGMT" is being dishonest, which is the only way I know to define not being "more honest"?  I would like to have more information, but it's hard to say what more I should have.  Your not having as much information as you would like about apparently confidential negotiations does not mean 'MGMT" is being dishonest.  MGMT is actively involved in evaluating various options and trying to make the best decisions and negotiate one or more of the best binding contracts they can.  What part of the process do you think you should be briefed on or be involved in?

[Putncalls]

Years?

[UncleT]

If we are honest, most of us here are frustrated where the price has been the last couple of months/years. Understandable. I have gone through several times where I thought a deal is surely to happen. FID, maybe by X date, but at least by 6 months after. Final bids are due February 28. Deal should happen soon, but for sure within 4-6 months. There has been progress, but there has been timing disappointment.

If we go back and look at the records here on SHU, it would prove this. IOC has a great resources, and great opportunity, but has many risks to it. If it didn't have both this forum wouldn't exist. Unfortunately, we have seen most of the risks real their head. Political uncertainty, short manipulation, and unmet deadlines.

When it comes down to it, this is a stock you should buy and bury your head in the sand until a deal happens or doesn't happen. The amount you risk on it depends on your conviction. Please stop rebuking people that question various aspects of the business by saying "why don't you just sell all your shares then?" While not exactly equivalent, this is similar to me saying "why don't you invest you life saving in IOC?" It solves nothing. Invest accordingly to what you can afford. However, it is healthy to ask questions about your investments.

IOC obviously has huge dollars against it. They have a reason. We disagree. I have appreciated STP periodically stating those reasons and dispelling them throughout time. That is what this should be about. Not bickering.

Lets not lose perspective.

[arthurbell]

If we are honest, most of us here are frustrated where the price has been the last couple of months/years. Understandable. I have gone through several times where I thought a deal is surely to happen. FID, maybe by X date, but at least by 6 months after. Final bids are due February 28. Deal should happen soon, but for sure within 4-6 months. There has been progress, but there has been timing disappointment. If we go back and look at the records here on SHU, it would prove this. IOC has a great resources, and great opportunity, but has many risks to it. If it didn't have both this forum wouldn't exist. Unfortunately, we have seen most of the risks real their head. Political uncertainty, short manipulation, and unmet deadlines. When it comes down to it, this is a stock you should buy and bury your head in the sand until a deal happens or doesn't happen. The amount you risk on it depends on your conviction. Please stop rebuking people that question various aspects of the business by saying "why don't you just sell all your shares then?" While not exactly equivalent, this is similar to me saying "why don't you invest you life saving in IOC?" It solves nothing. Invest accordingly to what you can afford. However, it is healthy to ask questions about your investments. IOC obviously has huge dollars against it. They have a reason. We disagree. I have appreciated STP periodically stating those reasons and dispelling them throughout time. That is what this should be about. Not bickering. Lets not lose perspective.

Well said UncleT!  I for one have not been around as long as many here but I learn a little more each day!  I have been reading a lot about the ways of Warren Buffet and he seems to like it when prices go down so he can buy more!  I agree but unfortunately I am close to my prudent limits!  I did speak to my investor friend who is an oil and gas stock investor (professionally!) and he is still optimistic.  He did caution that he is a long term investor which is the way to go!  It is hard not to watch the stock price but I try to look out 3 or even 5 years (but no more with my age!) and if I like what I see in the crystal ball I buy!

I am excited about what IOC will look like in 3 years!  Will you look back and be upset that a successful deal was October versus November?  I doubt it if you are making lots of money!

I do not know much about options expiry and manipulation but I find there's always something to worry about and if you can't change it then stop worrying!  Prentend you just walked in the door and are buying IOC this morning.  Do you like it at this price?  I do!   Even if it goes back to $100 you make 50% !   It would take 20 years to make that in government bonds and I don't know if I have that long!

Here is a rainbow to cheer you up!

[Getitrt2]

If we are honest, most of us here are frustrated where the price has been the last couple of months/years. Understandable. I have gone through several times where I thought a deal is surely to happen. FID, maybe by X date, but at least by 6 months after. Final bids are due February 28. Deal should happen soon, but for sure within 4-6 months. There has been progress, but there has been timing disappointment. If we go back and look at the records here on SHU, it would prove this. IOC has a great resources, and great opportunity, but has many risks to it. If it didn't have both this forum wouldn't exist. Unfortunately, we have seen most of the risks real their head. Political uncertainty, short manipulation, and unmet deadlines. When it comes down to it, this is a stock you should buy and bury your head in the sand until a deal happens or doesn't happen. The amount you risk on it depends on your conviction. Please stop rebuking people that question various aspects of the business by saying "why don't you just sell all your shares then?" While not exactly equivalent, this is similar to me saying "why don't you invest you life saving in IOC?" It solves nothing. Invest accordingly to what you can afford. However, it is healthy to ask questions about your investments. IOC obviously has huge dollars against it. They have a reason. We disagree. I have appreciated STP periodically stating those reasons and dispelling them throughout time. That is what this should be about. Not bickering. Lets not lose perspective.

I totally agree, of course, about trying to minimize "bickering", and not losing perspective.

One thing I do have some problem with is the term "deadlines", as in "unmet deadlines", which I believe is a much over used term.  I don't recall the Company ever even using the term, although there have been some contracts with dates that might have been interpreted that way, which on the other hand were usually subject to extension.  Understandably investors always want information on time frame expectations for almost everything, and historically the Company tried to be responsive to that.  However, PNG is an especially difficult place to even make such projections, much less meet them, as even Exxon has found out;  and I think people have often inappropriately and unfairly interpreted and expressed them as "deadlines".  Given the frequency of that interpretation and the level of difficulty and criticism about missing supposed "deadlines",  I think one result of that is that the Company has become less communicative in that respect.  I am not saying that expectations have not frequently been unmet, or that it has never been the Company's fault, about which I doubt anyone has been more disappointed and frustrated than I;  but I think it has usually been in hindsight the result of unavoidable problems, limited resources, or changes that needed to be made because of changes in the environment or circumstances.  I think there is reason to believe that with the new and more stable government and the new IOC management, we will see much less of that.  With respect to the current selection, planning, and negotiation process, I and most obviously expected something more definitive sooner;  but we really don't know how extensive and complex what is going on is and how long it should take, and I don't think with there being anyone able to credibly say there is any particular "deadline" this time.  I do think there is strong reason to believe we now have an experienced and competent management team focused on and striving to accomplish the best results for the Company and shareholders within the time in which it needs to be done.  I'm not sure how much more we could ask for now, although I would definitely like to know more about the process and parties and the outlook.