Comparing the deals

[admin]

You probably have a point with the $/mcf there, Sam.

I think the LNG stake is the most likely candidate that swayed the deal in favor of Total. 30% versus, well, what? Do we know any stake in the plant (or train) was on the table?

This actually speaks highly of IOC's belief in finding more significant fields in PRL 15, with a significant stake in the plant, they get to earn big bucks on these (as well as on EA gas).

Let's not forget that this is where most of the money is, even if it takes a lot longer. Gas in the ground sells for what $1/mcf. LNG sells for close to $20/mcf these days. Remains to be seen whether that still holds at the end of the decade, but marginal costs are not likely to decline..

But does it, I find the possibility of putting up a CSP and pumping the dry gas to Exxon until Total's plant is up and running rather interesting.

[Getitrt2]

I don't think Total is going to build an LNG plant for gas that is being pumped to Exxon while they build it. Any gas to sell to Exxon I think would have to come from elsewhere, such as Wahoo, which it seems to me would be a definite possibility. Also keep in mind that an 8 mtpa plant would be built probably with a eye on the possibility it might be expanded afterward and become even more profitable.

[jft310]

I don't think Total is going to build an LNG plant for gas that is being pumped to Exxon while they build it. Any gas to sell to Exxon I think would have to come from elsewhere, such as Wahoo, which it seems to me would be a definite possibility. Also keep in mind that an 8 mtpa plant would be built probably with a eye on the possibility it might be expanded afterward and become even more profitable.

Getit that decision would depend on his much NG is there

tell me how large triceratops is? Holland thinks e/a size his guess

tell me how large Bighorn us? Hession stated thinks E/A size

tell me his large Wahoo is Holland stated the best of all

then we have a total of 54 prospects to drill

or odds are we have lots more NG

or why not help Exxon out with a module of NG to build train 3 and get earlier cash flows

[mikesioc]

From a stock (not a deal) point of view, MH made a huge mistake.  He did not set expectations properly for what was too come.  HE should have known what they were.  Many times the company, and not pumpers, either said or supported the notion that the deal price would be multiples of the current implied value.  I think the market expected $1 or better per mcf to sustain the price.  With the stock trading in the high $60s prior to the last cc, that was the time to set expectations for what was to come.  He nailed the timing but should have set expectations better for what was to come, particularly with what we know - there was no huge/blowout deal.  Had the stock remained in th $60s into the dedal announcement, the $0.80 per mcf gross # actually could have made the stock go up from there.  And then there was the botched delivery of the message.  Just my opinion, but in a way he inadvertantly over promised on the last cc by not setting expectations properly.  Yes the deal is great long term but this was a big pooch by the Dr.

Totally agree! (no pun intended).  A little guidance on where the deal was headed with regard to price, re-certification and onwership in a new LNG project that will be years away (this was the certaintly of development Hession referred to) would have gone a long way to reset expectations.  I recall an expectation that there would be no re-certification with XOM on the first 4.5T.  Furthermore, the value of the stock may never meet expectations if nothing is done to get rid of the manipulation.  The longer it goes on without decisive action to combat it you have to wonder why?  All the drilling and upside in the resource and new plant are meaningless if the shares don't respond accordingly.

[jft310]

From a stock (not a deal) point of view, MH made a huge mistake.  He did not set expectations properly for what was too come.  HE should have known what they were.  Many times the company, and not pumpers, either said or supported the notion that the deal price would be multiples of the current implied value.  I think the market expected $1 or better per mcf to sustain the price.  With the stock trading in the high $60s prior to the last cc, that was the time to set expectations for what was to come.  He nailed the timing but should have set expectations better for what was to come, particularly with what we know - there was no huge/blowout deal.  Had the stock remained in th $60s into the dedal announcement, the $0.80 per mcf gross # actually could have made the stock go up from there.  And then there was the botched delivery of the message.  Just my opinion, but in a way he inadvertantly over promised on the last cc by not setting expectations properly.  Yes the deal is great long term but this was a big pooch by the Dr.

Totally agree! (no pun intended).  A little guidance on where the deal was headed with regard to price, re-certification and onwership in a new LNG project that will be years away (this was the certaintly of development Hession referred to) would have gone a long way to reset expectations.  I recall an expectation that there would be no re-certification with XOM on the first 4.5T.  Furthermore, the value of the stock may never meet expectations if nothing is done to get rid of the manipulation.  The longer it goes on without decisive action to combat it you have to wonder why?  All the drilling and upside in the resource and new plant are meaningless if the shares don't respond accordingly.

just maybe IOC's new management will take some of the $613 million and go after the shorts

we know they work together which is illegal

one solution is to get Hession to respond with his own article on seeking alpha

split the damm stock

pay a dividend

shorts go away

[Getitrt2]

I don't think Total is going to build an LNG plant for gas that is being pumped to Exxon while they build it. Any gas to sell to Exxon I think would have to come from elsewhere, such as Wahoo, which it seems to me would be a definite possibility. Also keep in mind that an 8 mtpa plant would be built probably with a eye on the possibility it might be expanded afterward and become even more profitable.

Getit that decision would depend on his much NG is there

tell me how large triceratops is? Holland thinks e/a size his guess

tell me how large Bighorn us? Hession stated thinks E/A size

tell me his large Wahoo is Holland stated the best of all

then we have a total of 54 prospects to drill

or odds are we have lots more NG

or why not help Exxon out with a module of NG to build train 3 and get earlier cash flows

JFT, I referred above to other possible sources for Exxon, and specifically to Wahoo, which is about to be drilled and could probably be available in plenty of time for Exxon.  That kind of possibility might be a reason for Exxon not to have bid a higher price than they did for E/A gas.  There would have to be HUGE additional amounts in PRL 15 to supply a Gulf LNG of say five trains or more, which I think would be the direction for more than now delineated.

As far as dozens of prospects are concerned, I doubt I'll be around long enough for that.