Boston conference comments today

[ltinvest]

Completely agree, STP. Its absurd how all the risks raised for so long and acccounting for a big discount to NAV are now removed yet apparently not recognized or acknowledged by so many.

We are now on the quick path from unknowns to knowns and uncertainty to certainty.

[Thylacine-2]

Completely agree, STP. Its absurd how all the risks raised for so long and acccounting for a big discount to NAV are now removed yet apparently not recognized or acknowledged by so many. We are now on the quick path from unknowns to knowns and uncertainty to certainty.

Right!  The market doesn't yet see how The Total deal has changed everything for IOC.  It's much better than anything we could have hoped for from XOM. Perhaps not in speed of first cash. But definitely in scope and rapidity of company growth and expansion.  And all with the support and approval of the PNG government.  Hession said he was looking for a strategic partner and he found one!  IOC will have explosive growth over the next several years if our drilling program works out.  Hession thinks big and can translate big ideas into reality.

[ebster123]

T2, I agree with you however in your last reply I think you stated why the market is acting how it does. You said "IOC will have explosive growth over the next several years if our drilling program works out." I believe over the next several years is perceived by the market to mean not for at least one year and possibly several. With XOM, even though less money in the end, i believe the market felt XOM would have brought was much more money much much sooner. Time will tell

[trans]

In the past week I've gone back six plus years and during that time there has been 7 waterfall like price declines that were short induced, every one of them.  These attacks were usually done as good news was ready to be released and were kicked off by misleading media stories.  There are 12 million shorts, that's one billion dollars of short term firepower and they are determined not to lose.

Getting to my point though, the average rebound from those lows was +47% during the next 7-12 weeks every time.  This was not counting 2 of those sharp declines that gained an average of +100% from those lows, June  2007 and the decline down to 31 a couple of years ago.  In every bottom area, the investor sentiment was the same, maximum bearish outlooks and no recovery anytime soon, just like the present..  IOC is at the end of week 1 from the decline.  If history is a guide again, and it has a 100% record so far, from the middle of January on out several weeks, you should feel much better and your wallet too about IOC and its potential.  It's no different here than those other times, and the stock is almost finished forming its bottom, imo.   Let it consolidate some up and down first, and soon, it will be ready to start a strong recovery move, surprising all AGAIN.

One last thing,  I see reports of brokers paying monthly  stock lending fees that work out to 4-5 % on an annual basis.  No wonder we have some BIGS lending out their IOC stock.........How about getting management to reserve one hundred million dollars a year for the initiation of a cash dividend for the next 1-2 years along with a stock dividend.  That would equal and negate the stock loan 4-5 % to loan your stock, and last but not least, the big shorts would have to cough up that dividend.  This would make it not worth the effort to be short IOC stock.......especially with a deal now intact......tell management...lets get rid of that short interest......!!!

[Thylacine-2]

T2, I agree with you however in your last reply I think you stated why the market is acting how it does. You said "IOC will have explosive growth over the next several years if our drilling program works out." I believe over the next several years is perceived by the market to mean not for at least one year and possibly several. With XOM, even though less money in the end, i believe the market felt XOM would have brought was much more money much much sooner. Time will tell

So far, Petro's explanation of the selloff sounds pretty convincing.

"We have a great deal with Total but where did the 3.5 and 5.4 TCFE increments come from???... because this is exactly why the stock dumped..

Given the GLJ low estimate is over 6 TCFE, I find the deal structure absolutely, without question, calls into question the GLJ estimate."

Though I think there was a short attack just because we have seen that so many times before. Probably several factors to create the perfect storm.

You are right, time will tell. Let's hope for a big discovery in 2014.