Mr Tilson on IOC at Robin Hood 2015

[Stavros]

Mr. Whitney Tilson spoke at JP More Gains' Robin Hood Investor's Conference on Monday 16 November: Here's the RH Agenda:

https://investors.robinhood.org/2015-agenda

Tilson's Presentation was a cumbersome 103 slides long (LINK below and Slide Pack Attached) attacking Wayfair and promoting Spirit Airlines.

http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uplo...onRH15.pdf

He spent a few seconds on Slide 6 telling us about his favorite Short Position of all time, IOC:

o   IOC has fallen 58% from $86.50 to $36.44

o   My belief was (and is) that this is nothing more than a run-of-the-mill (albeit clever) natural resources promotion (natural gas in Papua New Guinea, of all places)

o   After more than a decade, Interoil still hasn’t produced a single MCF of natural gas – and I don’t think it ever will

o   I got fatigued and covered the short – but my view on the company/stock hasn’t changed a bit

IS TILSON CORRECT?  - - - Let's ask XOM and OSH and TOT and others whether there's gas and oil in PNG  - - - "Natural gas in Papua New Guinea of all places"

[Palm]

What a joke. He was underwater for years with his bet against IOC and then when IOC announces the deal with Total he gets lucky. Good for him I guess. But his statements of the reservoir not bein for real and IOC never getting a deal with a SM, etc have been proven wrong in a huge way. He got lucky finally. He should have just left it at that.

[jft310]

I imagine Tilson shorted more with his buddies which was one of the reasons the stock price dropped as much as it did . The poorly coordinated press releases hurt as did the perceived price at the time and the delay .
Today we still have months to wait and an unknown price. But many including PET seem bullish over what the final asset size and dollar amount eventually will be . I remain bullish based on Henry Aldorf comments and NSAI numbers as well as drilling success and connectivity and flow tests .

[wapitidropiti]

I imagine Tilson shorted more with his buddies which was one of the reasons the stock price dropped as much as it did . The poorly coordinated press releases hurt as did the perceived price at the time and the delay . Today we still have months to wait and an unknown price. But many including PET seem bullish over what the final asset size and dollar amount eventually will be . I remain bullish based on Henry Aldorf comments and NSAI numbers as well as drilling success and connectivity and flow tests .

JFT  Do you realize that Aldorf's casual comment is now more than five years old? I remain bullish also but even the insane have dropped this baby.

[jft310]

I don't agree . Most didn't accept Henry's number when he gave it out and now the drill bit is proving out when he stated before it was drilled base on seismics . Wayne Andrews was trained in seismics and he saw what Henry saw and people laughed about his numbers . Fact Henry and Wayne had it right and others have been quite a bit slower to catch up . One needs to give credit where credit is due . Is it more valuable to be able to predict asset size pre drilling or post drilling . ???When people make careers out of doing it over again yes it deserves recognition . Explains why Henry was CEO for years and years .
Henry and Wayne nailed it and yes they were pathfinders not followers .

[ArtM72]

Henry's beliefs were certainly on display at the last Grand Rapids AGM. Sure would have been nice if he hadn't made as good a case for the likely resource as he did. I could have gotten in today at a much more affordable level.

So long as we're travelling down memory lane, how much more would IOC be worth today, and how much richer PNG would be today, if Duma hadn't stopped the EMC/Samsung and related HOAs based on Henry's plan for modular and FLNGs.

[jft310]

Art got a better one - The reason Henry Aldorf and Marathon paid for a NSAI reservoir report was to buy into E/A . That pre drill estimate was 15 T's . Phil turned them down . Terms were never revealed . Now where would we be now with a Marathon partnership from 2005 ish .

[kommonsents]

If dog rabbit, meat in da skillet.

[trans]

Tilson is is a wall street lowlife imo, and also not very smart.  He's a stoolie for the short crowd and is used when they need him.  FWIW, unusually low short sales as a % of total volume on 11/16 thru 11/18 yest where 6.6,5.7,and 6.5 percent, extremely low.  This has a very high correlation with short covering, or buying to cover their shorts. This , in my judgement, hints strongly  that Tilson's short gang that hired him, were "covering"  in those days leading to the IOC news release 11/18, yest am.  I also wonder how they got the info early if not a coincidence and I highly doubt that?

[jft310]

Credit Suisse is a paid advisor to the PNG govt . Interoil notifies govt of news and it filters out .