What we get and miss out on

[AU74]

OSH may be a good buy at this point.

The pps didn't budge yesterday.  If we were giving away the farm to them, shouldn't they have had a nice bump up from the announcement?

[ArtM72]

They didn't have a 6T estimate on Bobcat and Raptor OR the results from A4,A5,A6 and A7 last June. The FID date is also a year closer. The PNG LNG market is clearer also. MH screwed us but OSH doesn't look so bad?

Put, I agree with you and expected the share price to rise as we approached the cert payment and clarity on the LNG plant. But I think the $60 plus price in 2015 could have been Chandler's doing with a buyout, because remember he sold out and that helped start our drop into the abyss. Could we have got back to that level with oil reaching $50-60 again, dunno. Lot of negatives on LNG demand and with the supply set to increase by another about 60 mtpa over the next several years, market valuations have changed. One point in your post I'd disagree with - 6T estimates on Bobcat and Raptor are phantom numbers - no flow rate. No one will pay zip for them as Morgan Stanley said. And how much cash did we blow on them and Wahoo? $150 million? That cash pissed away in part forced our hand. IMHO

Do we know Bobcat and Raptor  were not flow tested or was it just that flow rate numbers have simply not be made public so as not to give rise to unwanted interest in the resource?

[Kaliboo]

OSH may be a good buy at this point.

The pps didn't budge yesterday.  If we were giving away the farm to them, shouldn't they have had a nice bump up from the announcement?

. Dilution worries.  According to Yazoo OSH has 1.52 billion shares outstanding.  The stock was down 1+% yesterday.  If all IOC holders take the shares, then that's ~409 million additional shares.  That's ~27% more than they have now.  Will they keep the dividend in place?  They are buying assets that have no revenue for years to come.  I presume they will do everything they can to send gas to XOM's plant asap.  Lots of things to consider.

[Palm]

If you read their presentation they state they will be buying back shares to reduce dilution

[katytrader]

If you read their presentation they state they will be buying back shares to reduce dilution

That's right, that's the stated aim.  But presumably if the USD option is oversubscribed, IOC shareholders who seek the dollar payment will get a prorated amount and will still have some number of OSH shares.  I think this the most likely case and hence more headache for those who can't easily trade on the ASX, but dilution will be mitigated.  Of course, if the foreign holders want to sell OSH no matter what, the effect will be similar to a short attack unless OSH has lined up funds to support its price.

All more wonderment as the Land of the Unexpected extends confusion into Sydney.

[jft310]

See the light OSH will issue 400 million shares and the stock is basically flat in price . Why because the shares issued are for a valid reason .
Interoil could do the same by issueing shares to drill with as Phil did many times and to build an LNG plant . Here's proof for all to see we do not have a cash shortage we have a management issue with a PR issue . We need new management not here short term to pocket shares .