IOC in the catbird seat?

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IOC in the "Catbird's Seat"?

By getitrt2 . 56 minutes ago . Permalink

It has been suggested that IOC is "at the mercy" of the NEC, and even that corruption and bribery may be holding things up. The Gulf LNG and the related PA is an extremely high profile issue in PNG now, and I am confident there are no corruption and bribery issues for IOC holding it up at this point. Furthermore, not only do I not consider IOC "at the mercy" of the NEC, I am also confident they are working together toward a win-win conclusion. PNG wanted some domestic gas access from XOM/OSH, but their concerns about the amount of gas available were too great; IOC has no such concerns, to our great benefit. IOC is offering that to PNG, partly for the benefit of the country and partly to get more of what IOC AND its new partners want, including a more flexible and phased project with earlier cash flow. If that isn't a win-win arrangement, I don't know what is; but it's complex and taking more time to finalize, which shorts are taking full advantage of.

As far as the rumor about Mitsui being or wanting out, management has described that as "absolutely not true", and I do not believe they are lying about that. I've also heard a very interesting observation from a very reliable source. The national oil and gas companies/utilities are in a position to submit higher bids because of their nature and the motivation or even responsibility for future energy security for their countries. I think that creates a high probability for JKM, including Mitsui as part of that. Also we've heard rumors about Petronas and PTT, and I understand PTT was in PNG during the recent presentations. I think the only way Mitsui could end up out of this would be a situation where some Major that would build its own CSPs submits such a high bid and better offer that IOC could not turn it down. We also have three world-class incentivized investment bankers working for the best outcome for IOC and themselves.

The waiting is frustrating the hell out of me too, but it sounds to me more like a situation of IOC being in "the catbird's seat" than being "at the mercy" of anybody! In the meantime, they have new low cost financing in hand, which the market has not given them credit for, and are continuing to build infrastructure for the project (where are the reasons for doubt?) and drill, and are currently moving Rig 3 into place to drill more, and are planning for still more drilling in PRL 236 and in Triceratops (more rigs, maybe?). Anyone who thinks these highly incentivized management shareholders are not working hard in the long-term interest of shareholders does not understand this Company and what is going on, in my opinion.

I also think the stock action yesterday could have been related at least in significant part to end-of-month and end-of-fund-fiscal-year window dressing, in addition to all these baseless rumors and short efforts in a low volume limited-participant market. Any other thoughts on that?