My take - Shell is just a part of the deals

[davidhmtk]

We were told today that Shell is far along in talks to be an "operator" and a "partner".   It seemed credibly rumored that JKM will buy the first 3.8t's from PRL 15 as well as provide the CSP and that PNG favored a SM to be the operator.  So Shell as operator of first liquification plant, with gas to Kogas/Japex. We also know that PNG has potential control of 50% of the second 3.8ts, assuming a deal price that would be profitable for the PNG govt.  I suggest that Shell's partnership is not with IOC, but with the PNG govt (presumeably Kumul trust).  I won't forget PTT, who was promised access to exploration opportunities (per the Thai press).  Perhaps Phil agreed to sell a significant chunk of Wahoo/Tuna as part of a deal to extend the licenses.  And a side deal with XOM or Oilsearch to take the early gas from the CSP.   Probably selling more than Phil wants, but getting solid or better prices, for a huge haul overall.   FWIW.

[SamAdams]

Look for incremental and positive news on Monday concerning the govts role.  Not sure if Shell is part of that or not.  Too many possibilities to consider but I wanted to share.  Dismantling of Petromin and creation of Kumul will have no impact on sell down.  Any short expecting another delay, well 'nuff said.  Spudding of Elk-3 is significant.  Would not be done without new partner.  In order to do that, partner would be announced prior.  What did Phil say last week - in weeks?  Probably the most important recent  piece of real evidence as to what is on the way.

[jft310]

Sam - The key piece of new information was Elk to be clearer. Makes a statement we have a partner and will drill in several weeks with that new partner.

[SamAdams]

Sam - The key piece of new information was Elk to be clearer. Makes a statement we have a partner and will drill in several weeks with that new partner.

Yes and thanks for highlighting that better than I did, and despite being a week old it is the one tangible clue we have as to how close this all is.  Don't tell AG.