11-13-2013, 09:43 PM
northoil • 13 hours ago Flag/pulled from yahoo for your reading pleasure
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The ride has just begun
The conference call was electrifying. Why? It was incredibly focused and addressed the major issues head-on. First, the CEO showed why he was there. I was in that business for over 30 years and he impresses me as someone who knows how to get things done. Bringing in outside experts as focus teams on negotiation and exploration is brilliant management.
Second, they are cleaning up their businesses – getting rid of non-core, zeroing in on the opportunities. Obtaining bridge financing – that tells Exxon, Total and Shell that IOC can sustain itself and they can’t force IOC to an unfavorable deal. And allows them to aggressively pursue the upside.
Third, the DEAL itself. It’s still in the bushes but he was clear that it will be finished, from “any day” to the “end of the year”. And he doesn’t strike me as someone who over-promises. “End of the year”, to me, means he left himself lots of wiggle room and the deal should be announces much sooner – like “any day”. Hession knows LNG, knows how majors operate, knows government relations. Exxon or whoever is not going to screw IOC. The deal, when announced will be good for IOC. And it will be long term.
Fourth, Exploration. Those of you who are not geologists have no concept of the upside inherent in the acreage IOC holds. I started buying the stock when Exxon moved in. I know Exxon well and it was a slam dunk that IOC’s resources were all they said. Then I saw their prospects and seismic on their website. Then I started buying with both hands and am long and unhedged, way out on margin. It’s clear to anyone with exploration experience that they are into a honey pocket. With 6 wells planned, more gas WILL be found, potentially as much or more than they have now.
Lastly, this is NOT a one-day bump. That conference call told the world what’s going to happen. There may still be ups and down until the deal is announced, but I don’t lreally care. They deal will be very positive for the stock price, and next year, when a few of the wells come in, the stock will take off again. Less