Antelope-7

[petrengr1]

They have apparently moved the location for Antelope-7. Back on May 13, 2016  we were given a map and a picture of the construction for the well site.   http://tinyurl.com/j6fu99b  page 5. This location is more than 2 km from Antelope-5 and it is directly west of Antelope-5. Now as Kaliboo has pointed out to us the MIC tells us on page 40 http://tinyurl.com/hg8p8q7 that the well will be drilled approximately 1.3 km west southwest of Antelope-5. This is clearly not the same location shown on the May 13 presentation mentioned above.

Phil gave us his thoughts about where Antelope-7 should be drilled at http://tinyurl.com/j25mlfn ;

Page 18. The new location 1.3 km west south-west of Antelope-5 appears to be very similar to what  Phil has suggested. The well should be on the East side of both faults shown on page 5 of the May 13, 2016 presentation mentioned above. This location is much less likely to result in a dry hole than the former location which was 2+ km west of Antelope-5. The new location should be within the confines of the field and the top of the limestone can be expected at about -1,600 meters sub sea. Hopefully we will find some high porosity limestone and dolomite near the top of the zone like we have seen in all of the other wells. The well will probably be drilled vertically to see if they have the complete section all the way to the gas/water contact at -2,214 meters. If they find the gas water contact they should have about 614 meters (2,014 feet) of pay. It is possible that they might continue to drill below the gas/water contact to locate the fault at this location and see if the footwall below the Antelope Field contains gas or water. OSH refers to this footwall zone as the Antelope Deep prospect.

If they cross the fault before reaching the gas/water contact they should have a good idea how far the fault is to the West. They could then drill a directional well toward the West until they cut the fault again. At that point they will have located the fault at two locations which will give them the ability of calculating the angle of the fault. With this information they can calculate how far west the fault will cross the top of the limestone. That will be the western boundary of the Field. This is the information we need so that the two certifying companies will have the boundary of the Field on all sides and will have the quality of the formation (porosity, permeability etc.) at all locations.

It appears that they have built or are building two locations. Hopefully this new location will not delay the spudding of the well which they are now saying is expected in October, 2016.

If they do not find the fault either above or below the gas/water contact at Antelope-7 that would mean that the fault is considerably further to the west and we will go to certification with that information. After certification Total may decide to drill Antelope-8 at the location already built further to the west in order, once again, to try to locate the fault.

[Putncalls]

I wonder if Phil could have had any influence on this location choice?

[jft310]

Phil has been talking , did they listen ?! Someone listened it appears .

[Kaliboo]

They have apparently moved the location for Antelope-7. Back on May 13, 2016  we were given a map and a picture of the construction for the well site.   http://tinyurl.com/j6fu99b  page 5. This location is more than 2 km from Antelope-5 and it is directly west of Antelope-5. Now as Kaliboo has pointed out to us the MIC tells us on page 40 http://tinyurl.com/hg8p8q7 that the well will be drilled approximately 1.3 km west southwest of Antelope-5. This is clearly not the same location shown on the May 13 presentation mentioned above.

Phil gave us his thoughts about where Antelope-7 should be drilled at http://tinyurl.com/j25mlfn ;

Page 18. The new location 1.3 km west south-west of Antelope-5 appears to be very similar to what  Phil has suggested. The well should be on the East side of both faults shown on page 5 of the May 13, 2016 presentation mentioned above. This location is much less likely to result in a dry hole than the former location which was 2+ km west of Antelope-5. The new location should be within the confines of the field and the top of the limestone can be expected at about -1,600 meters sub sea. Hopefully we will find some high porosity limestone and dolomite near the top of the zone like we have seen in all of the other wells. The well will probably be drilled vertically to see if they have the complete section all the way to the gas/water contact at -2,214 meters. If they find the gas water contact they should have about 614 meters (2,014 feet) of pay. It is possible that they might continue to drill below the gas/water contact to locate the fault at this location and see if the footwall below the Antelope Field contains gas or water. OSH refers to this footwall zone as the Antelope Deep prospect.

If they cross the fault before reaching the gas/water contact they should have a good idea how far the fault is to the West. They could then drill a directional well toward the West until they cut the fault again. At that point they will have located the fault at two locations which will give them the ability of calculating the angle of the fault. With this information they can calculate how far west the fault will cross the top of the limestone. That will be the western boundary of the Field. This is the information we need so that the two certifying companies will have the boundary of the Field on all sides and will have the quality of the formation (porosity, permeability etc.) at all locations.

It appears that they have built or are building two locations. Hopefully this new location will not delay the spudding of the well which they are now saying is expected in October, 2016.

If they do not find the fault either above or below the gas/water contact at Antelope-7 that would mean that the fault is considerably further to the west and we will go to certification with that information. After certification Total may decide to drill Antelope-8 at the location already built further to the west in order, once again, to try to locate the fault.

Thanks Pet for elaborating.  So their announced delay for spudding A7 fortunately has a very good excuse.  I have to believe they were listening to Phil.  Repeating my prediction - if the sale goes through, expect Phil et al to be working for XOM and/or TOT in some capacity regarding exploration and picking well locations.

One other thing Pet.  Can you comment on what you know about the rock quality around the GWC in these wells vs. that above it?  I haven't studied that but my recollections and impressions have been that the best rock is higher up in the deposition and not on bottom.  If so, then it seems the tighter rock on bottom would limit the water drive due to restricted mobility.  However, vertical fracturing could nix that benefit, if present.

[petrengr1]

They have apparently moved the location for Antelope-7. Back on May 13, 2016  we were given a map and a picture of the construction for the well site.   http://tinyurl.com/j6fu99b  page 5. This location is more than 2 km from Antelope-5 and it is directly west of Antelope-5. Now as Kaliboo has pointed out to us the MIC tells us on page 40 http://tinyurl.com/hg8p8q7 that the well will be drilled approximately 1.3 km west southwest of Antelope-5. This is clearly not the same location shown on the May 13 presentation mentioned above.

Phil gave us his thoughts about where Antelope-7 should be drilled at http://tinyurl.com/j25mlfn ;

Page 18. The new location 1.3 km west south-west of Antelope-5 appears to be very similar to what  Phil has suggested. The well should be on the East side of both faults shown on page 5 of the May 13, 2016 presentation mentioned above. This location is much less likely to result in a dry hole than the former location which was 2+ km west of Antelope-5. The new location should be within the confines of the field and the top of the limestone can be expected at about -1,600 meters sub sea. Hopefully we will find some high porosity limestone and dolomite near the top of the zone like we have seen in all of the other wells. The well will probably be drilled vertically to see if they have the complete section all the way to the gas/water contact at -2,214 meters. If they find the gas water contact they should have about 614 meters (2,014 feet) of pay. It is possible that they might continue to drill below the gas/water contact to locate the fault at this location and see if the footwall below the Antelope Field contains gas or water. OSH refers to this footwall zone as the Antelope Deep prospect.

If they cross the fault before reaching the gas/water contact they should have a good idea how far the fault is to the West. They could then drill a directional well toward the West until they cut the fault again. At that point they will have located the fault at two locations which will give them the ability of calculating the angle of the fault. With this information they can calculate how far west the fault will cross the top of the limestone. That will be the western boundary of the Field. This is the information we need so that the two certifying companies will have the boundary of the Field on all sides and will have the quality of the formation (porosity, permeability etc.) at all locations.

It appears that they have built or are building two locations. Hopefully this new location will not delay the spudding of the well which they are now saying is expected in October, 2016.

If they do not find the fault either above or below the gas/water contact at Antelope-7 that would mean that the fault is considerably further to the west and we will go to certification with that information. After certification Total may decide to drill Antelope-8 at the location already built further to the west in order, once again, to try to locate the fault.

Thanks Pet for elaborating.  So their announced delay for spudding A7 fortunately has a very good excuse.  I have to believe they were listening to Phil.  Repeating my prediction - if the sale goes through, expect Phil et al to be working for XOM and/or TOT in some capacity regarding exploration and picking well locations.

One other thing Pet.  Can you comment on what you know about the rock quality around the GWC in these wells vs. that above it?  I haven't studied that but my recollections and impressions have been that the best rock is higher up in the deposition and not on bottom.  If so, then it seems the tighter rock on bottom would limit the water drive due to restricted mobility.  However, vertical fracturing could nix that benefit, if present.

Kaliboo- Yes, the best reservoir rock has always been in about the upper third of the gross interval. I believe the fear of a water drive is that the water would follow the fractures and bypass all of the gas in the tighter lower interval. Also on the perimeter of the field the better rock would be at the gas/water contact so the water would encroach through this higher porosity/permeability interval from the edges of the field toward the crest of the structure as gas is produced. This would also bypass some of the gas.

On the other hand if we have a pressure depletion drive with very little if any water drive then the fracture system would serve for allowing the gas to be recovered from the tighter zones and the water would not encroach from the edges of the field allowing a very high percentage of the gas in place to be recovered.

I am in the camp that I believe GLJ is in ie this field will have a pressure depletion drive. This theory is based mainly on the fact that the Antelope aquifer pressure is 460 psi higher than the regional aquifer. As far as I am concerned this PROVES that the Antelope field is sealed off and separate from the regional aquifer. The only water drive we should have is from the expansion of the water in the relatively small block of the Antelope Field. Since water is very near incompressible and since no water will be feeding into the field from the regional aquifer the water drive effect should be very small to none.  If Antelope-7 proves up another 1-2 TCF as expected then the ultimate recovery could be approaching the 12 - 15 TCFe that Phil has been suggesting. Unfortunately the IOC shareholders will not benefit from any upside above 10 TCFe under the present Exxon buyout proposal. That is why they should remove the 10 TCFe cap and restore the later certifications after production has commenced.

[jft310]

This is what Phil has been requesting in talks with Exxon . A no vote can help with those discussions . Better than doing nothing you should agree!!
"he present Exxon buyout proposal. That is why they should remove the 10 TCFe cap and restore the later certifications after production has commenced."

[Putncalls]

I would be happy if the new estimation companies accepted the isolated Antelope aquifer theory.